A theory of Lupin's transformation

[Grey Wolf <greywolf1@jazzfree.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 51085

Sushi wrote:
>          The full moon does not rise at sunset.  It rises at noon, 
> and sets at midnight, meaning that Lupin would have been susceptible 
> at any point between those two times.  The only logical explanation 
> I've got is that the dose is effective for somewhere between 24 and 
> 36 hours (since Snape brought it in during the afternoon on the 
> Hogsmeade day), and it just happened to wear off as they were leaving 
> the Shack. Severus brought it within the conscripted time limit, but 
> there was no werewolf to take it.
>
> Sushi

I think I'm going to dust my theory on the workings of the potion once 
more - I'm pretty sure it hasn't been seen in the list for a couple of 
months. First, however, allow me to make a statement: I am not a Lupin 
apologist - I love Lupin, he's my fav character in the books (yes, I 
know, easy to guess, me being a werewolf myself, but bear with me), but 
I don't really think there is nothing to induce me to apologise for 
him. He made a mistake, paid the price, moved on. No amount of 
discussion will change the past, and it wasn't that big a mistake, 
anyway.

Besides, I am blessed (or cursed) with a scientific mind, not a 
philosophical, and I am more interested in the potion itself. Canon 
states that he must take it during the week before full moon. I assume 
that he has to take certain amount of dosis, at more or less regular 
intervals (too close toghether, and the potion can be fatal -many 
medicines are little more than carefully measured dosis of poison- too 
far apart and he won't have time to take enough). So, if he needs four 
goblets, and each goblet must be at least a day apart, he can take them 
the first, third, fourth and sixth day before the full moon, or any 
other possible combination - thus explaining the comment of "I'll 
probably take more tomorrow" (as oposed to the next day, for example).

Next, the workings of the potion itself: canon states that the potion 
allows Lupin to keep his mind while transformed, which makes him less 
dangerous, but I also added a little extra bit: the potion also retards 
the transformation itself from happening (and shortens its duration, 
thus transforming back earlier). Where did I get that from? Well, the 
potion is suposed to be a cure for lycanthropism that is still being 
developed, so it makes sense that they are working on both levels: to 
make him safe, and to cure him altoghether (but, since it *is* being 
developed, it doesn't really do everything yet).

Now, for the next bit, I need to state my theory on how lycanthropism 
really works in Potterverse. I believe that the transformation happens 
when the air reaches a certain threshold of accumulated magical energy. 
This magical energy builds up during full moon (lets say, for the sake 
of argument, that the magical energy is reflected from the moon). Of 
course, when the moon is in plain sight, the amount of energy is so big 
that it triggers the change immediately, but whenever it is overcast or 
out of sight, it takes longer for the energy to build up.

And that is the core of my theory: the potion enhances the 
lycanthrope's resistance to the energy. In a sense, it takes more 
energy to change him into the wolf form. It is not perfect, and even 
with full potion dosis in his body he *will* change during the full 
moon phase, but it does allow him to resist for longer - that is, 
unless full moon hits him directly.

Where does that leave us? In the SS (Shack Scene), Lupin was in his 
office, protected by four good walls from the moon, and he had enough 
potion to last a while, maybe even the night (with a last dose, that 
is). With what he already had he could resist for several hours, 
probably. But then he sees Pettigrew in the map, as well as Sirius. His 
wits are scrambled, but a quick check out of a handy window informs him 
that the sky is overcast, and thus that he has the time.

Now, Fast forward to the end of the SS. When they leave, the sky is 
still overcast, and sure enough the potion prevents Lupin from 
changing. Unfortunately, the clouds are thinning and suddenly, the 
expected happens: the clouds part and the moonlight hits the group 
directly. The potion is totally overmatched, and Lupin transforms. And, 
since he hadn't taken the last dosis, his mind is still mostly that of 
the wolf.

What would've happened if he *had* taken the last dosis? I think he 
would've still transformed, but might've kept his mind. But we don't 
really know.

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf, who is in the middle of a blizzard right now and feels great