OoP: Fudge: evil or not? (Was The Phoenix, the Stag, the Otter and the Swan)

[Wendy St John]

No: HPFGUIDX 67291

Susan wrote:

"I don't know what direction J.K. Rowling is going to go into, but I
believe 
Fudge's days are numbered and that Lucius Malfoy is going to kill him and 
take command of the MoM. The MoM will be under Voldie's control by the end 
of Book 6. This will lead to a grand showdown between Arthur Weasley and 
Lucius Malfoy in Book 7."

Now me (Wendy):

Hmnh. You're talking about what *used* to be one of my favourite theories,
but I'm not sure how it can happen now. Well, maybe . . . a couple of
thoughts on this are coming to me as I write this . . . Let me play around
with a few scenarios:

1. Fudge is being sincere throughout OoP, and really did not believe
Voldemort was back until the battle at the Ministry. If this is true, then
I don't think the above scenario (Lucius kills Fudge, becomes MfM; Arthur
kills Lucius, becomes MfM) has a chance. Regardless of what happens to
Fudge, I don't see the Wizarding World allowing known Death Eater Lucius to
become Minister for Magic. This is assuming that the WW *knows* about
Lucius' involvement (more on this below). My problem with this scenario is
that I really don't believe that Fudge *was* being sincere. He was
downright scary in his attempts to discredit Harry (not to mention
thoroughly ruin the boy's life) with the sham Underage Magic trial. Maybe
this is another example of "the world isn't separated into nice people and
Death Eaters" (quoting from memory - probably not exact wording). But
something that really caught my attention is Fudge's reaction after the
battle - "I know, Williamson, I know, I saw him too!" gibbered Fudge on
page 720, UK edition. For some reason, Fudge's reaction in that scene (the
whole scene, not just the bit I quoted) struck me as over-done. As though
he wasn't really surprised at all, but was just doing his best to appear to
be. I think he knew darned well that Voldemort was back, which leads to . .
. 
 
2. Fudge wasn't really being "ostrich boy," but has been a Voldemort
supporter in some form or other all along. Throughout OoP (particularly at
Harry's hearing) we see that Fudge has a large number of people at the
Ministry "in his camp." A seeming majority, in fact. Perhaps Fudge is
supporting Voldemort, along with some significant number of other Ministry
officials. Or perhaps Fudge is the only one currently supporting Voldemort,
but could garner support from the others in the future. If something were
to happen to Fudge, all his cronies might well support Lucius as Minister.
There would still be the problem of public opinion, as I doubt a majority
of the Wizarding public would want a Death Eater in that position. Which
leads me to another point (not a scenario exactly, so it doesn't get a
number, just an *):

* Perhaps Lucius' arrest isn't common knowledge. Lucius does not appear to
have been mentioned by name in the press release we see at the beginning of
Chapter 38. (He's not mentioned in the section we read - don't know if a
list of the Death Eaters was printed elsewhere). If Lucius can somehow
manage to avoid being named publicly as a Death Eater, then I think he'd be
a very likely prospect as MfM regardless of whatever else is happening.
Wealthy, well-connected, Dead Sexy (Hah! Just wanted to see if you're still
awake <g>). *If* the public doesn't find out about Lucius' arrest, I think
he's a shoe-in.

There is still one more scenario that I could see as a possiblity:

3. Fudge was being sincere at the end of OoP, but after his epiphany that
Voldemort has, indeed, returned, Fudge decides that Voldemort has more
going on than Dumbledore, so Fudge approaches Voldemort and tries to join
him. Bad move for Fudge, I'd say. Either Voldemort tells Lucius to zap him
then and there (in which case Lucius might have a shot as replacement MfM),
or Voldemort is willing to give Fudge a chance but Lucius goes ahead and
kills Fudge anyway. (Voldemort won't mind overmuch, as long as Lucius
manages to succeed Fudge as MfM). I've just realisedt that all of this
assumes that Lucius has found a way out of Azkaban, which I don't think is
out of the question. Ooh! I've just had another really fun thought . . .
wouldn't it be sweet irony if Fudge is the one who manages to get Lucius
out of Azkaban with his reputation relatively unsullied, and then Lucius
turns around and snuffs him? Ha ha ha ha! I really, really like that.
Please, JKR, if you are reading this, PLEASE DO THIS in Book 6! <G> One of
my few disappointments with OoP was the thought of
Discredited!Neutralised!No-longer-doing-lots-of-evil-stuff!Lucius. 

Oh - I just realised that I haven't yet gotten Arthur into this. Well,
that's easy, really. No matter what happens, <prediction alert!> Arthur is
going to be MfM by the end of Book 7. I have strongly believed this for
ages (mostly based on what we learn about Arthur and the Ministry in GoF).
Ron's joking prediction about his dad becoming MfM was just icing on the
cake. If I have one single rock-solid prediction to make, that's the one. I
do hope Arthur doesn't have to actually kill Lucius, as I prefer my good
guys to keep blood off their hands whenever possible. 

So, is Fudge evil or not? Well, I think the better question is whether
Fudge is Ever So Evil or not. In other words, is he a Voldemort supporter,
or not? I am not convinced by anything in OoP that he is *not* supporting
Voldemort (either as a tattoo-carrying DE, or in collusion in some other
way). So he might be ESE. It wasn't proven, but not disproved, IMO. But
regardless of any connection with Voldemort, I'm not seeing any way to
claim his actions in OoP toward Harry were anything but evil - even if they
were being done out of some misguided sense of protecting the WW. So, to
answer the question I posed in the subject line, I am now prepared to state
that Fudge is <drum roll, please> definitely evil. One way or another, by
Potterverse standards, at least. Which way do I think JKR is going with
Fudge in the long run? Don't know. I suppose that depends on whether or not
he's meant to represent the evil guy who's not a Death Eater, or if we'll
have plenty of that with other characters. (Lupin, anyone?) <G>. Don't much
care, as long as Fudge kicks it in Book 6 <veg>. 

Wow. This was fun. I started out all depressed that my one of my favourite
theories was dead, but now it doesn't seem quite so dead anymore. I have a
feeling that may be the case with quite a few theories floating around.
They look pretty lifeless after Hurricane Jo, but I really don't think she
did as much destruction as might appear at first glance. For example,
LOLLIPOPS - neither proven nor disproven. Percy is Evil - Not proven or
disproven. Sirius dead - Well, I think that one is pretty much proven, but
there is a whole boatload of people out there who are still clinging to
hope, right? I'm still not willing to even accept that Snape really *wants*
the DADA job. For all we know, that might be something he and Dumbledore
set up as a source of "tension" between them for the benefit of others. <G>
And we might as well analyse all of them (what else will we do until the
release of Book 6?).

Cheers!
Wendy
(Who thought about TBAYing this until she realised that it's after 10 p.m.,
and her 4-year-old is still running around, so she probably shouldn't take
the time to re-write it <G>).