Umbridge, dementors, spy in Order?

[Liz]

No: HPFGUIDX 72446

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "linocow2000" <caroline at i...> 
wrote:
> Hello everyone. This is my first post so hope it's OK!
> Have searched in the archive, but can't find any reference to the
> fact that it  seems a bit of an amazing coincidence that the 
dementors turn up 
> near Privet Drive just as Mundungus Fletcher hears about some dodgy 
> cauldrons.
> 
> Since Umbridge admits to sending the dementors, and since things 
aren't
> usually a coincidence in the HP universe, this suggests that she 
knew:
> a)  HP was being watched.
> b)  when Dung was on duty (unless she had ways lined up to distract
> any possible member of the order - but it does seem that Dung isn't 
known
> for his reliability).
> So unless Umbridge is bugging the Order's HQ, presumably impossible
> (from outside), how has she got this information? Is there a spy 
reporting
> to Fudge and/or LV?
> Have so far failed to come up with a likely candidate 
<<snip>>
> Any ideas out there?
> Caroline

Liz Says:

I am so very glad you posted this because I have been thinking about 
it for some time.  First of all, I agree with you that Dung popping 
off just at the right moment is a little to convenient for the 
Potterverse.  However, I do have a suspect, but I'm not too happy 
about it.  No, not very happy about it at all. . . That's why I 
haven't posted.  I'm not sure I believe it, so it might be a red 
herring.  Any opinions on this are very welcome . . .

I don't believe that Umbridge knew Harry was being watched, but I 
know someone that I do believe knew that.  That person works at the 
Ministry and got pretty close to Umbridge.  He also most likely had --
 or had access to -- a load of cauldrons.  You see, he had spent a 
good deal of time researching the thickness of cauldron bottoms the 
year before.  Yes, Percy!

Now, before the screaming for my blood begins in earnest, let me say 
that he knew quite well that Harry was more than a match for a couple 
of Dementors so to lure Dung away at just the right time wasn't 
really attempted murder.  Percy just made sure that Umbridge's plan 
had a chance to succeed by ensuring it would be Harry who used magic.

I mean, remember how driven Percy is for success.  He is desperate 
and more than willing to ride on the coat tails of a "rising star" 
like Umbridge...

Now, because I have a great deal of empathy for Percy -- and only 
occasionally want to "biff" him upside the head -- I really am rather 
hoping for a bunch of posts explaining why it couldn't possibly have 
been Percy.

Liz