Umbridge, dementors, spy in Order?

[mtwelovett]

No: HPFGUIDX 72557

 Liz Says:
<SNIP>
First of all, I agree with you that Dung popping 
> off just at the right moment is a little to convenient for the 
> Potterverse.  However, I do have a suspect, but I'm not too happy 
> about it.  <SNIP>
> 
> I don't believe that Umbridge knew Harry was being watched, but I 
> know someone that I do believe knew that.  <SNIP>  Yes, Percy!
> 
> <SNIP some very good points suppoerting Percy's Role here>

then bboy_mn says:
> 
> Points to Ponder-
> 
> 1.) Mrs. Figg knew about the cauldrons. How could she know, if
> Mundungus was on duty when he received the news? She couldn't. So, the
> logical conclusion is that Mundungus found out about the dodgy
> cauldrons before he came to work, and discussed it with Mrs. Figg
> before he went on duty. Mrs. Figg seems to have warned him about
> taking off, and definitely suspected he might do it, because she sent
> her cat to spy on him.
> 
> 2.) The events don't happen 1, 2, 3 one right after the other.
> <SNIP>
> 
> My conclusion: the events are too scattered and random for Umbridge to
> have had a hand in them all.

now Mtwelovett:

Very interesting thought Liz! I think it is possible for Percy to have
assisted there with the Cauldrons, but I'm not convinced he knew
enough or about the order at all to be a total traitor to the order.
If he was not to be included in the order he wouldn't know where it
was and who it consisted of, but working at the Ministry, and being a
Weasley, he may have what he thinks to be a good idea of who
Dumbledore sympathizers are. And how would anyone know that Mundungus
would be on watch that day, unless it is his usual "summer job" and he
is there every night or something, even so, would Percy or the
Weasleys know specifics about this early on (earlier years for example)? 

bboy_mn, I think Filch and possibly Mrs Figg have a "special
connection" to their cats, and maybe can communicate with them more
than say a Muggle, so maybe Mr Tibbles "told" her something about the
cauldrons. But you are correct that the events are not all right on
top of each other, and that sort of supports the happenstance aspect.. 

What really could any of them have done had the Dememtors shown up
anyway? They could have helped Harry and Dudley escape from them, but
that would have alerted the Ministry they weren't the only ones
watching Privett Drive, and there still would have been some legal
mess with what that was about, and lots more trouble for the Order on
the whole.....hmmmm... did Dumbledore have a hand in getting Mundungus
away from there to keep the order out of it, knowing Harry could
handle the Dememntors, making sure Figgy was around for a witness to
make sure Harry was cleared?.... I like that idea very little, very
little indeed!

Mtwelovett... who doesn't like this can of worms she just opened.