[HPforGrownups] Predictions for OoP

[GulPlum]

No: HPFGUIDX 53647

The Admiring Skeptic wrote:

>I'm still interested in hearing from the Mods or anyone else about what 
>one should do with an idea that seems very likely and also a complete 
>spoiler if it's true. Post it? Sit on it? Post it with a warning?

Well, unless you're JKR (in which case, welcome!) :-) you can't know beyond 
a doubt that it's true and thus it is speculation rather than fact. As you 
will have seen from however long you've been reading this list, there's a 
LOT of speculation around, and *some* of it has to come true, if only as a 
result of the old adage that if you throw enough mud, some of it will 
stick... After all, if we didn't think some of speculations would come 
true, we wouldn't bother discussing them in the first place.

So although I'm not a Mod, I say go ahead and post your thoughts, and 
regardless of how likely they are to come true, I'm sure *someone* here 
will find some holes to poke in them. :-)

>re: the bezoar and other Snape's Welcome Speech items: What
>they all have in common is that they all appear in ordinary Muggle
>dictionaries with very similar meanings to those given by Snape.

Well, the vast majority of the stuff in the books is genuine folklore from 
one tradition or another, and JKR has invented very little truly original 
terminology. From dragons to mandrakes, from unicorns to the Philosopher's 
Stone, they're all "real" and their uses in the Potterverse generally 
coincide with real-word views. Drawing conclusions on that basis is just a 
little dangerous.

<snip: prediction for OotP plot>

>There are only so many standard mystery and fantasy plots, and JK has
>already used four each in the first four books. Figure like this:
>
>Mystery:
>PP/SS: bank robbery/ burglery
>CoS: attempted murder
>PoA: jail break
>GoF: secret agent/ attempted murder

Isn't that selective post-rationalising?

The secret agent plot is present in each of the books to date: Quirrel, 
Ginny (OK, she wasn't a willing agent, but she was an agent all the same; 
even so, Diary!Riddle fits the profile as well), Wormtail (and Crookshanks, 
in a way), Crouch Jr. And of course Snape throughout the books, who's the 
very essence of a secret agent.

The jail break motif is an important element of both PoA and GoF; it could 
also be applied to CoS (Diary!Riddle "escapes" the diary, Ginny is 
imprisoned, the Basilisk is freed); I can't immediately see escape from 
imprisonment in PS/SS, but I'm sure someone else can have a go. :-)

Attempted murder is all over the place. I won't even list the candidates. :-)

As for robbery/burglary (in fiction, *bank* robberies aren't *that* 
frequent), the burglary in the first book is hardly of the same narrative 
importance as, say, Sirius's escape in PoA. The PS/SS plot could have 
easily happened without any reference to the Gringotts break-in. Yes, it 
sets some of the action in motion, but it's not central to that action. 
Robbery/burglary makes several other appearances anyway, sometimes in a 
more important role than that. In CoS, Hermione steals the Boomslang skin 
from Snape's office (ditto Crouch Jr. in GoF, and Dobby with the Gillyweed 
in CoS). Ginny steals the diary back from the boys' dorm in CoS, 
Crookshanks steals Neville's password list in PoA, Sirius breaks into 
Gryffindor Tower. There are more examples.

>Fantasy:
>PP/SS: keeping a magic object away from the Dark Lord (a la LOTR)
>CoS: slaying the dragon
>PoA: rescuing the innocent from a high tower (prepubescently not a
>princess)
>GoF: accomplishing heroic tasks (a la Greek mythology)

Again, sorry, but I think you're post-rationalising. The elements above 
aren't entirely on the same level in terms of their narrative importance.

I'll examine just one of those as an example of why I disagree with your 
reasoning. Firstly, the fantasy archetype is rescuing a *damsel/princess* 
from a high tower, not "the innocent". Secondly, rescuing the damsel from a 
dungeon, which is the case in CoS (in that case, it *is* a girl) is a 
variant on that archetype; further variants are the rescue from the watery 
depths in GoF, and the rescue from the Troll in PS/SS. Thirdly, Sirius 
isn't actually rescued from a high tower; yes, he's rescued from a 7th 
floor room, but it's definitely not in a tower - perhaps interestingly, he 
is taken *to* a tower.

One small comment on the GoF one: isn't "heroic task" just a little vague? 
After all, the other three examples are themselves heroic tasks.

> From this, one can begin to extrapolate which plots are left and
>which she might use in the next three books. Book 7 is reserved for
>the destruction of Evil by Good. So my guess is:
>
>OoP: Mystery - kidnapping; Fantasy - saving a real princess from a
>high tower,etc (see above)

Kidnapping: already done: Quirrel is sort-of kidnapped by Voldemort; Ginny 
is kidnapped into the Chamber; Ron is sort-of kidnapped into the Shrieking 
Shack; Moody is *absolutely* kidnapped by Crouch Jr., and what other word 
is there for getting Harry to the graveyard? :-)

Saving the princess: she's already been saved from the dungeon (err... "see 
above"). :-)

>Book 6: Mystery - information espionage; Fantasy - reaching the secret
>source of magical wisdom

Espionage is an undercurrent throughout the books, and in any event it's 
not a plot archetype, it's a genre. The source of magical wisdom was 
already encountered in the first book as the Philosopher's Stone, and in 
any event, the kids will be doing their NEWTs in Book Seven, so the 
archetype of attainment of magical wisdom is already pretty much a foregone 
conclusion for *that* book.

>Of course, you veterans on this list might think up more likely plots
>for 5 & 6, but the method of extrapolating is, I think, valid.

Sorry... (err... "see above"). :-)

I don't have any ideas for specific plots. However, I would propose that 
one plot element is very likely to turn up, as it's been the very crux of 
the books to date: "the dead guy dun it".

Throughout PS/SS, it is generally assumed that Voldemort is dead; in CoS, 
Riddle is perhaps not dead, but he doesn't exist since he become Voldemort, 
not to mention that Ginny's death is assumed to be  inevitable before Harry 
enters the Chamber; in PoA, Pettigrew had been seen to die by a dozen 
people; in GoF, Barty Crouch Jr. was known to be dead and buried.

I'll go one step further along those lines: the scene during which each of 
those characters is introduced is the scene in which it is established that 
they can't *possibly* be part of the story. I'd therefore propose that if a 
character is talked about in OotP and they are stated to be 
incontrovertibly out of the picture, that's who we should be looking out 
for as the bad guy. :-)

--
GulPlum AKA Richard, anxious to hear Admiring Sceptic's sure-fire idea...