[HPforGrownups] The Trelawney Prediction

[Kelly Grosskreutz]

No: HPFGUIDX 58178

> Hi Everyone,
> I posted this comment previously this week. In deep obscurity. Which
> I suppose is the reason it has generated no responses.
> THat is of course assuming that the entire list hasn't decided to
> never reply to my posts again :P
>
> I have noticed that something strange is generally accepted in the
> theories that I have read. Many are satisfied with the concept that
> Trelawneys *First True Prediction* was the fall of Voldemort.
>
> In contrast I would like to question this complacency among fans.
> JK has duped me too many times to rest my laurels on that simplistic
> and logical conclusion.
>
> I would like to hear suggestions from the posting list on what
> Trelawneys "other" premonition was.
>
> I haven't got any theories myself. What I would like to contribute is
> some canon to ponder.
> Professor Trelawney is not exactly noted for *cheerful* visions.
> Some may disagree but I do believe that the defeat of the ominous
> Dark Lord is a little too positive a prediction for Trelawney.
> Doom and perdition are her watermark so what chance that she could
> depart so fully from her usual and be the bearer of news that would
> cause revelling in the streets.
>
> Any replies?
> Valky

I do think Trelawney's prediction was connected in some way to Voldemort's
downfall.  It's just a matter of what exactly it said.  At least three
things it might have concerned are his defeat in general terms, why Harry is
so important, how Harry will defeat Voldemort, or perhaps a combination of
all three.  In this case, I don't think it's a matter of "Is JKR throwing
out a red herring?" than "It's not a matter of 'Is this correct?' but 'How
is it correct?'"

I don't know how understandable I was in that last statement, so let me give
an example.  I am also a fan of Babylon 5.  In the very first episode, one
of the characters relates a dream he had where his bitter enemy and he
strangle each other to death 20 years in the future.  He tells us that this
will happen, for dreams of this nature among his people are prophetic and
always come true.  So we are told from Day One the outcome of two characters
on the show.  A couple of seasons later, we see a brief snippet from 20
years in the future, and we see the circumstances where these two characters
kill each other.  We'd walked into it thinking it was obvious.  They hated
each other.  But the watching of it was quite different than we'd been led
to believe.  After watching that episode, the viewer was left wondering, "So
how do these two get to this point?"  Which gave the show another two
seasons to show us enough to understand how this future scene did come
about?  In other words, we knew they killed each other, and we knew why, but
the fun then was seeing how exactly they got there.

I can see JKR pulling this.  In some ways, she has already used this
technique.  In PS/SS, we are told that Snape hates James, and at least part
of the reason is because James saved his life.  In PoA, we find out more
details on how James was able to save his life.  But many on here have
speculated, and I agree, that there is more going on here than that, and
there are other reasons why Snape hates James.  The fun is finding out the
details.  Same situation exists with that fateful night at Godric's Hollow.

Returning to Trelawney's prediction.  You say that she is not known for
cheerful visions.  But then again, this is the Trelawney who is trying to
make herself sound foreboding and mysterious.  A lot of times, she reminds
me of one of those who has a psychic hotline.  She probably looks over the
records of all her students before they come to class and extrapolates from
there.  Let's think about her first class with Harry's group.  She predicts
Neville will break a cup.  Neville is well-known for being clumsy and
forgetful.  The odds are he will break a cup, especially since she has
already put that thought in his mind and made him nervous.  Predicting
something dreadful will happen to a student on a certain day is a little
trickier, but she has put it in this girl's head that something will, so if
anything bad does happen that day, she will remember it.  I'm willing to bet
that if Lavender (iirc) had not received that letter from home about her
rabbit, no one would even have remembered that prediction, or if so, she
would have come up with some other bad thing to fit the bill (maybe not
quite as tragic, though).

And then there's Harry.  One would have to be living under a rock to not
know how he got that scar and what he's famous for.  Many people also
speculate that Voldemort is not dead, but will come back one day.  From
that, it's not too hard to make predictions about dark strangers coming and
wanting to kill Harry.  Yes, I know she's predicted his death pretty much
every day and in every way imaginable, but again, if he does end up dead
someday, no matter how he dies and whether it was an accident or Voldemort
actively killing him, the students will point to it and say, "See, she was
right.  He was hung and disemboweled right before being AK'ed and
decapitated."

But let's keep in mind the Trelawney that gives the true predictions is not
the same Trelawney that does her version of a psychic hotline.  She has no
clue when she emerges from her trances what she has said, and doesn't even
believe Harry when he tells her what she said.  This means she has no
control over what she sees when in this state.  In this state, she could
predict something happy or prophesize hope.  Of course, she *really*
wouldn't believe it if someone told her that's what she said.  But, because
of this, I wouldn't rule out any happy predictions.

Kelly Grosskreutz
http://www.idcnet.com/~ivanova