The Trelawney Prediction

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 58294

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "fridwulfa" 
<rubeus_hagrid at w...> wrote:
> Bluesqueak wrote:
Pip!Squeak. It's Pip!Squeak [grin].
> 
> I suspect that Trelawney's *first* prediction was made to a very 
> select audience. Of our current cast of characters, Snape would 
> make most sense. 
> 
> Snape because he is certainly reporting to Dumbledore in GoF and 
> could thus reasonably be expected to have reported the first 
> genuine prophecy to Dumbledore, *but* may have also had to report 
> it (in his DE role) to Voldemort (especially if he wasn't alone at 
> the time).

> I (izaskun) ask:
> 
> Ok, Snape heard the prediction. But how? and when, and where??? 
> Snape was not a teacher back then. He joined Hogwarts after LV's  
> defeat. So he couldn't be near Trelawney, who I think was already 
> a teacher. 

Pip!Squeak:
I agree entirely that Snape was probably not a teacher until after 
the fall of Voldemort. As you say, Sirius's surprise at learning 
Snape was at Hogwarts suggests his teaching career started *after* 
Sirius was banged up in Azkaban.

But what canon is there to say that Trelawney was teaching at 
Hogwarts before the fall of Voldemort? Wouldn't it be more likely 
that she would be hired *after* her first real prediction?

McGonagall says that 'True Seers are very rare'. [CoS Ch. 6 p.84]. 
That would suggest that someone who obviously *is* a True Seer (if 
rarely) would be someone to hire. In fact, it explains precisely why 
Dumbledore has hired such an apparently obvious fraud. Trelawney can 
teach the students the basics, she's a good lesson in 'how to spot 
fraudulent predictions', and she actually does have the Gift.

So I would suspect that Trelawney, in the absence of any definite 
canon, was hired post first prediction, not before it.

Another argument for Trelawney not having been at Hogwarts is that 
McGonagall obviously doesn't believe that Professor Trelawney is a 
True Seer. That suggests she personally has heard no hint that 
Trelawney has produced at least one genuine prediction. While it's 
possible that the first prediction (like the second) was made to one 
person who reported it only to Dumbledore, it adds credence to the 
idea that Trelawney's first prediction was not made at Hogwarts.

Further argument for Snape being the witness to the first 
prediction - it's McGonagall who makes all the snippy comments to 
Trelawney. We know that Snape's no slouch in this department; but 
Trelawney gets no sarcastic Snape commentary. Why?

Easiest explanation - he knows she's not a fraud. 

Izaskun:
> I think DD witnessed Trelawney's first prediction, and LV knew 
about it by some way or the other. There were a lot of spies for 
both sides in those days. Or maybe LV didn't know the prediction, he 
just went after the Potters because he an extremely evel centaur 
told him about Saturn and Mars brighting unusually the night Harry 
was born, or whatever. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Pip!Squeak:
Possible - but the easiest route is Snape. He's the one person we 
currently know of who would have good reason to tell *both* 
Voldemort and Dumbledore. If Snape is a witness, no extra spies are 
required. If Dumbledore is the sole witness, we have to explain how 
Voldemort found out, and why Snape doesn't share McGonagall's 
obvious contempt for Trelawney.

Pip!Squeak