Bet

[rachelbeth007]

No: HPFGUIDX 59041

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "emmajess29" <
cassandre.lamaudite at l...> wrote:
> Hello !
> 
> I've got a question : during the quidditch world cup, fred and george 
> won a bet that was very unlikely. Does anyone have clue of how they 
> managed that ?
> 
> EmmaJess

*** As huge Quidditch fans, I think Fred and George realized how great the 
whole Ireland team is, and that Viktor Krum is probably the best Seeker 
playing in the Cup.  It seems Bulgaria got to the finals on the (slouched) 
shoulders of Krum, winning every match due to the points gained from the 
snitch.  Ireland's Seeker probably always got the snitch as well, but his team 
was probably well on their way to winning already.  

Here's what Harry says about it:
"He knew they were never going to catch up!  The Irish Chasers were too 
good. . . . He wanted to end it on his terms, that's all. . . ." (GoF US 112)

I think the twins would realize that Krum would rather catch the snitch and 
lose than not catch it at all.  Its quite apparent that the Irish team will continue 
to score at will and increase its lead exponentially, so Krum has no qualms 
about ending the match when the score will be close.  

Another reason for the unusual bet might be the fact that it is so unlikely.  
Bagman says "I'll give you excellent odds on that one." (Gof US 89).  Thus, the 
twins will get a greater return on their bet than if they had just picked Ireland to 
win.  I'm not the sports betting expert, but I think in the case of a huge favorite 
(which I think Ireland was on the strength of their complete team), the odds 
are so great that you have to bet a ton of money to get any return.  Like horse 
racing when you have 1-3 odds , you have to bet $300 to get a $100 return if 
your horse wins.  (I hope that's right, please correct me if I'm wrong). 

To sum up, the twins know Quidditch enough to recognize that Ireland is the 
superior team but that Krum is the superior Seeker.  They want to make a bet 
that will give them a nice return on their investment.  Thus, they go with the 
unusual bet and would've made good money back had Bagman not been 
such a punk (though I think they'll take the 1000 Galleons from Harry anyday).

Rach