Lupin and Leadership (was: James, Lupin, and the Head Boy Badge)

[abigailnus]

No: HPFGUIDX 85114

Pippin wrote:

> Ah, but Lupin had leadership qualities too. I don't think any one 
> would deny that he has excellent people skills. He says he led 
> his friends to become Animagi. And maybe that's his guilt 
> talking, but it still shows that he's always considered himself a 
> leader. 

I agree that Lupin exhibits leadership skills, although I think Marina is 
right when she points out that these are a relatively recent 
development.  In fact, I think Lupin grows quite a bit between the 
Pensieve scene and the present.  It's just that his growth isn't as overt 
as James'.  In the intervening years, Lupin gains self-confidence.  
Whereas in the past, he prefers to look away when people are doing 
something wrong, in PoA he feels comfortable enough to encourage 
Neville to make fun of his fear of Snape, and to berate Harry sternly 
for sneaking off to Hogsmeade.  True, these are baby steps - he never 
works up the courage to confront Snape directly about Neville, and he 
never tells Dumbledore about the fact that Sirius is an animagus.  
Lupin deeply dislikes confrontation, whether it's with people he cares 
about such as Sirius or people he dislikes such as Snape.  Am I the 
only person who find this quality familiar?

Lupin's emotions are extremely hard to read.  He always behaves with 
great civility, but it's hard to discern his actual feelings beneath his 
veneer of cordiality.  Even in moments of great distress, such as the SS 
or right after Sirius' death, he keeps his head, speaking in a soft voice 
and counseling reason.  He always argues for the path of understanding 
and discourse, is prepared to make friends of his enemies, and takes an 
interest in the socially disenfranchised.

Does this soound like anybody we know?

Obviously, there are some key differences between Lupin and 
Dumbledore.  Lupin started out as a principled boy who nevertheless 
allowed his friends to drag him into mischief and mayhem, out of a 
desire to avoid confrontation and keep their affections.  Lupin the man 
had outgrown that willingness to be dragged into bad situations, but 
remains wary of confrontation.  He holds firm to his own opinions, but 
prefers not to voice them in public when he knows that he might have 
an unsympathetic audience.  He hasn't yet reached the place where 
Dumbledore is, in which he remains the nicest, friendliest guy you ever 
met, who will nevertheless hold fast to what he believes and never let 
you get past him as long as you disagree with.  And at the same time 
he'll assure you that your every right to disagree with him.  And he'll 
smile while he's doing it.

I don't know if Lupin is ever going to get to that point, but I believe that, 
of all the members of the Order, he's the closest to it.  Which brings me 
to a question that's been on my mind for a while.  Assuming that 
Dumbledore will die before the final battle, which is not at all unlikely, 
who will lead the order?  I don't believe it'll be Harry, unless Dumbledore 
dies in close proximity to the final battle.  In that case, the order will 
need a general, not a leader (and we all know how I feel about 
Dumbledore's skills in that department, anyway) and it's possible that 
Harry will be able to fill that role.

But let's assume that Dumbledore will die earlier - in book 6 or nearer 
to the beginning of book 7.  The Order will need someone to rally them 
back to the cause, raise their spirits, and get them back on the job of 
fighting Voldemort.  Unfortunately, because of Harry's exclusion from 
the Order in OOP, we know next to nothing about the organizational 
structure of the order, including whether there's a second in command.  
According to the HP Lexicon, these are the current members of the Order 
(that we know of):

Diggle, Dedalus 
Doge, Elphias 
Dumbledore, Aberforth 
Figg, Arabella Doreen 
Fletcher, Mundungus "Dung" 
Hagrid, Rubeus 
Jones, Hestia 
Lupin, Remus J. 
McGonagall, Minerva 
Moody, Alastor "Mad-Eye" 
Podmore, Sturgis 
Shacklebolt, Kingsley 
Snape, Severus 
Tonks, Nymphadora 
Vance, Emmeline 
Weasley, Arthur 
Weasley, Bill 
Weasley, Charlie 
Weasley, Molly 

I think we can assume that any candidate for the leadership of the 
Order will be someone we know reasonably well.  That means Hagrid, 
Lupin, McGonagall, Moody, Snape, or any of the Weasleys (I'm not 
considering Kingsley Shacklebolt or Tonks, because despite being colorful 
characters we know next to nothing about them).  Snape, we can assume, 
is out for a myriad of reasons.  Hagrid is unqualified.  The Weasley boys 
are too young and inexperienced, and Molly simply isn't appropriate 
(sorry, all you guys discussing JKR's female characters, but you know I'm 
right).  That leaves us with Arthur Weasley, Minerva McGonagall, Alastor 
Moody and Remus Lupin.

Arthur is not a bad suggestion.  He seems less in awe of Dumbledore 
then other members.  Of all members of the order, I get the feeling that 
Arthur is the one who came to Dumbledore's way of thinking in his own 
way and of his own volition, as opposed to being taught by Dumbledore.  
He and Molly weren't members of the Old Crowd, which is probably why 
he brings a more adult atmosphere to the group - less hero-worship.  
For this very reason, however, he might not be appropriate.  He isn't an 
old-timer, and he doesn't understand the interpersonal dynamics as well 
as the other members.  In fact, he doesn't seem interested in them.  While 
Dumbledore keeps abreast of the unpleasantness between Sirius and 
Snape, Arthur is completely clueless.  This might work against him as a 
possible leader.  Also, he's a very straightforward man.  I don't see Arthur 
instigating a campaign of spying, for example.  Basically, I see Arthur as a 
very good top lieutenant, possibly even a second in command, but not 
necessarily a leader.

McGonagall, in my opinion, is out.  I know that she got a lot more 
interesting in OOP, but she still feels like an outsider in the order.  She's 
not a fantastic fighter, and several references are made to her age and 
frailty.  Plus, I think Dumbledore intentionally leaves McGonagall away 
from the true core of the order because he wants at least on member of 
the top trio to be focused on Hogwarts.  These days, Dumbledore is 
leading the order, and Snape has spying on his mind.  Dumbledore may 
simply want McGonagall to be the school's fallback in case he and Snape 
get too swallowed up by order business, or are killed in action.

Moody may seem like an obvious choice, but I think he's totally wrong for 
the job.  If Dumbledore is a strategist, Moody is a tactician.  Unlike 
Dumbledore, he truly is a good general.  He's the guy you want planning 
your battles and training your troops, but as for making policy decisions, 
considering intelligence, and being in charge of morale, he's completely 
unsuited.  Not to mention that his ideology is a far cry from Dumbledore's.  

Which leaves us with Lupin.  Again, I don't think he's there yet, but of all 
the members of the Order, Lupin is most likely to turn out like Dumbledore.  
I believe that if Dumbledore does snuff it, Lupin will end up leading the 
order - for one thing, he'll probably be the only guy not running around like 
a chicken with its head cut off.  I don't believe he'll be a perfect fit right away, 
but I think he'll grow into the job.

Abigail