Crying wolf?

[jwcpgh]

No: HPFGUIDX 82044

<snip> 
> > Talisman: A lot of people know he's innocent: LV, Wormtail, 
Fudge, Malfoy, Dumbledore, Snape, Lupin, probably the Longbottoms, 
etc. 
>  
> Kneasy:
> I have some doubts about who knew what when. But the likiest 
scenario
> for the PoA plot is on a "need to know' basis.
> Fudge does as  he's told; where the orders come from is 
problematical.
> Snape needs to know very little. He's got a grudge. Just wind him 
up.
> Lupin would need to know more, but not too much.
> Voldy is out of it; in deepest Albania licking his wounds.
> Add  Dumbledore.
> Stir the mix.
> 
> There is a distinct division in the personel listed:
> Fudge and Snape pair up, so do DD and Lupin.
> Although the totality of the action suits all of them, at least 
until
> the finale, it is not inconceivable that their motives differ.
> F&S don't want Sirius around anymore, D&L do; he has a function,
> at least for now.
> F& probably S aren't too fond of Harry, D&L see a need for him.
> 
> 
> Talisman: 
> > You don't think it was a coincidence that he showed up to teach 
DADA this particular year, do you?  No, he was a planned part of the  
Sirius comeback tour.
> > 
> 
> Kneasy:
> It's not a coincidence. What experience does Lupin have of DADA 
posts? Any? While the previous two were well-qualified square pegs, 
Lupin is an unqualified, snug fitting round peg in a round hole. The 
right man, in the right place, at the right time.
> 
> Remus himself may be bait DD sets for Sirius. If Sirius gets to  
know that he is at Hogwarts, he is quite likely to try and contact 
him. Old friends week  in the Shrieking Shack.
> 
> That something was going on, I have few doubts about.
> What we don't know is - did it work as intended?
> 
> I have a feeling it didn't. The Law of Unintended Consequences - 
again.

Laura:

I don't see the point of this alleged plot.  And why Remus?

(1) As long as Sirius is in Azkaban, he can be no threat to Fudge.  
Virtually everyone in the WW thinks he's guilty (and those who know 
better aren't talking).  When someone's in Azkaban for life, they're 
as good as dead.  So that's the safest place for Sirius if he has 
information you don't want to become public.  Or if you never want to 
see him again for personal reasons.

Moreover, Fudge has no reason to believe that Sirius was planning to 
escape for 12 years-because he wasn't.  He says that he managed to 
stay sane, but he doesn't say that he wanted to escape until he saw 
the clipping.  Are you saying that DD set Fudge up to perform that 
little slip-Sirius-the-newspaper charade?  Why?  If DD wanted Sirius 
out, he surely could have come up with a better method  (and a 
smarter henchman) than that.  And I have to believe that Fudge would 
have fought DD every step of the way.  He doesn't stand up to DD 
often, but when it comes to his job and his reputation, he'll put up 
quite a battle.

(2) Remus as bait?  Either he was in on this alleged plot or he 
wasn't.  If he was, you're suggesting that he was willing to sell his 
long-held beliefs about Sirius' guilt for a job, thus putting the son 
of 2 of his victims (and one of your dearest friends) in mortal 
peril.  You really don't think much of Remus, do you?

If he wasn't in on the plot, why would he be effective as bait?  It 
wasn't Remus Sirius was interested in, it was Harry.  (Sorry, 
Remus/Sirius shippers. :-))Sirius had 2 goals when he broke out of 
Azkaban (which I firmly believe he did without assistance)-to protect 
Harry and to kill Peter.  As long as Harry was at Hogwarts, no 
further bait would be necessary.  

Besides, Sirius thought that *Remus* was the spy.  So he had no 
reason to want to find him for a jolly school reunion.  

And I still want to hear your explanation about the Shrieking Shack 
scene-do you really think Sirius, Remus, Peter and Snape cooked this 
up among them or among some combination of them (this would be 
referring back to one of Kneasy's earlier posts)?  

I'm calling your bluff, Kneasy and Talisman-what exactly is the 
nature of this plot?  Who is in on it and why?  Details, please-
inquiring minds want to know!

Laura, who thinks this whole business is beginning to sound more like 
John Le Carre or Graham Greene than JK Rowling-and who would have 
written this as a TBAY if she'd been the least bit clever