Crying wolf?

[msbeadsley]

No: HPFGUIDX 82109

I had a bit of a hissy fit and just didn't quote anything at all. It 
had gotten too "snippy" in more ways than one; refer please, if 
you're interested, back upthread to message #82061.

Too many dots to connect? Not for me. I just thought, well, Peter's 
alive. Sirius was supposed to have murdered him along with a dozen 
muggles; if Peter didn't die that day, then what else isn't true? 
With Sirius' escape, I would have expected Lupin to be mulling over 
everything concerning Sirius' "crimes," having old doubts anew and 
entertaining all sorts of theories. They were true friends. But 
while "everybody knew" Sirius was a criminal, Lupin, as a 
marginalized member of the WW, was barely keeping himself together; 
there wasn't really anything he could do except go along--until, 
suddenly, there he was all at once face to face with both his old 
friend (quite an emotional catalyst) and some evidence to the 
contrary (Peter's presence) in the matter of that mass murder charge. 
We know he had some lingering doubts about Sirius' guilt, or at least 
was experiencing some denial/avoidance; otherwise, why didn't he go 
to Dumbledore with the information that Sirius could be using 
animagus form? It's perfectly plausible to me that Lupin filled in 
the rest about Peter's betrayal without prior knowledge. (Think of it 
this way, for a handy illustration: it's like one of us encountering 
a bit of new canon or reframing an old one; "suddenly" we're 
convinced that MD or BA or whatnot is true after all.) One bit of 
information can easily change one's viewpoint dramatically, 
especially if there have been even vague theories percolating in the 
old cranium out of some desire to deny the accepted "wisdom" on an 
issue. (We may not go down those mental pathways with Lupin; but if 
any one of my true friends were accused of such heinous crimes, I'd 
entertain doubt, denial, and the most barely plausible counter-
theories until hell froze over. If the heinous crime were against 
another true friend, I might even be silent on the subject.) I think 
Lupin spent years with part of his mind poised, consciously or not, 
on the edge of that particular epiphany.) In other words, I think 
Lupin's acceptance of and belief in Sirius' guilt was actually only 
an overlay and that on a deeper level he had never stopped believing 
Sirius was innocent. I don't believe there was any legilimency in 
play here, either. I think there was some of that "sixth sense" you 
sometimes develop with close friends that allows you to finish their 
sentences for them. If you're close enough, long enough, people think 
you have telepathy: you know each other that well. And I think many 
of us have had the experience of reuniting with someone we expected 
to have some awkwardness with after a long separation only to find 
that "it was as if no time at all had passed." (I put this in quotes 
because it's so true it's almost become a cliché.)

The simplest next step logically for Lupin (IMO) once Peter's death 
was proven false seems to me to be that Sirius was altogether 
innocent; and the only other likely culprit was Peter, who was a was 
a rat animagus. Ergo, and using Occam's Razor...(I can't remember: 
did Lupin know Ron had a pet rat? Sirius' pointing at Ron might have 
been a lot more information (picture paints a thousand words-like), 
if Lupin had that one bit of the picture already. But I don't *need* 
that to be true to find the scenario true on its face.)

As for Sirius' escape, I think his explanation was the truth as he 
knew it. I think the dementors were biding their time, waiting for 
their "natural ally," Voldemort, to come back to power. (How else did 
the DE's in OoP escape, if the dementors didn't let them walk out as 
a vote in favor of the Dark Lord?) I think it's likely that the 
dementors were somewhat lenient/sloppy with Sirius because they hoped 
he might take care of Harry for LV. It would also explain why the 
DE's who "escaped" in OoP don't seem more incapacitated; they're not 
much crazier than they'd have been going in, IMO. 

It also might explain the difference between Azkaban's effect on 
Hagrid as opposed to their effect on Sirius. Whatever else Hagrid 
might have done (in the dementors' supposed opinions), he's clearly 
on Dumbledore's side; witness his ire whenever anyone in the vicinity 
speaks of Dumbledore derogatorily. (I can easily imagine him doing so 
during the "intake" process at Azkaban; remember, Dumbledore's 
suspension is very fresh in his mind. It also might be that Hagrid 
muttered to himself, trying to keep his spirits up, "Dumbledore'll 
get to the bottom of this real soon now.") Dumbledore is very clearly 
not on Voldemort's fan list, no more so than is Harry. The dementors 
would have had no compunction in torturing Hagrid.

This also explains why the difference in Sirius' "resistance" of the 
dementors later; he had shown himself not to be an LV ally, or at 
least was showing no inclination to threaten Harry (the old "if 
you're not part of the solution..." adage). In addition, if he *was* 
allowed to escape in the hopes he would remove Harry, his ostensible 
loyalties aside, he (at the very least) had failed to accomplish the 
*task* of taking out Harry, and could be food.

Nor do I see a conflict between Bathilda Bagshot's automatic, traffic 
control-like MoM citation in response to the hover charm used at 
Privet Drive in CoS and Fudge's disregard in PoA of Harry blowing up 
his aunt. Harry in PoA was not just a WW hero from babyhood; by all 
accounts he was that hero being targeted for murder by the madman 
believed responsible for his parents' and a dozen other deaths. Fudge 
is a git, but he has always been portrayed as *politically* astute--
and expedient. And that is why Fudge was so intent on prosecuting 
Harry in OoP as well; Harry was actively threatening the status quo, 
and putting Fudge's power in jeopardy, and Fudge was right (astute) 
to think so...how many people here think Fudge will keep his office 
throughout Book 6? How many people think his loss of that office will 
be due only to his stubborn and ultimately revealed to be erroneous 
denial of LV's return? I think once constituents realized that LV had 
returned, Fudge was political toast. He was scapegoat #1 front and 
center no matter what. In case of disaster, blame the sitting 
government; even earthquakes get that: the government should have 
*done something* (better building standards et al)!

(Unquoted sarcasm aside) TLC/Diagon Alley seems to me a very safe 
place for Fudge to have parked Harry; what's the likelihood of Sirius 
Black risking one of the mot populous areas in the WW without even 
knowing Harry's there? Fudge did have someone keeping an eye on 
Harry; and we don't know, either, what other safeguards (charms, 
etc.) *might* have been in place (but I don't need that to have it 
fit together, personally). Besides, Fudge doesn't actually need to 
keep Harry safe; he only has to have enough evidence for plausible 
deniability of blame if something does go wrong. (I think someone 
else brought this up and I don't want to take undeserved credit:) 
Fudge is twice as concerned that they "lost" Harry (which would be a 
black mark against the MoM)as he is concerned for Harry's safety. It 
sounds to me as if he expresses that concern simply because it would 
be bad form not to.

BTW, a personal observation: I find that *my* level of sarcasm 
increases as frustration with failure to make my point intensifies... 
it's also a signal to me that I perceive my argument isn't working 
very well. My tone tends to sharpen as my content gets duller, as I 
work on intimidating instead of out-debating the opposition. It also 
functions as an attempt to cover up the fact that I, too, am merely 
interpreting the facts in the way I find most appealing.

Sandy, whistling and studying her fingernails