Crying wolf?

[Talisman]

No: HPFGUIDX 82061

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "boyd_smythe" 
<boyd.t.smythe at f...>, in #81968, wrote a lot of stuff.

Talisman,  seizing her bat to ward off a flock of rouge Bludgers, 
responds: 

Again, it seems best to leave the argument intact so that readers 
are cognizant of the point being addressed.  It's lengthy, but I 
think readable.
 
In # 81961 Talisman wrote:
 I agree with Kneasy et al. who find Lupin's "epiphany" implausible. 
There are too many dots to connect, too many alternative scenarios 
and even if you guessed right, you'd want to hear it from Sirius,  
rather than feed him the explanation. It smells to high heaven of 
pre-arrangement.

Remnant wrote:
Another take on this is that Lupin never wanted to believe in his 
heart that his good friend was really the traitor. Even though his 
mind said not to trust Sirius, his heart told him that Sirius was 
one of his best pals. 

Now Talisman writes:
You can believe that Lupin has always loved his friend, no matter 
what else you believe.  I'm certainly not saying otherwise.  

Remnant wrote:
So as soon as a reasonable story comes out exonerating the old dog, 
he believes it. And the finger was the extra bit of evidence he 
needed.

Talisman writes now: 
Problem 1) no story, reasonable or otherwise "came" out before 
Lupin's supposed epiphany.  Lupin runs into the room, asks "where is 
he?" and then basically says:  Aha! So that means you switched and 
made him the secret keeper, but didn't tell me, and this means he is 
really the traitor who sold out Lily and James (and that means you 
are innocent!) Come to my arms my beamish boy! (PoA  344)

Sirius is pointing at Ron. (Oh, I see, you are pointing at Ron; that 
must mean you weren't the secret keeper!?) Huh? 
This could mean Sirius is getting ready to say that Ron hit 
Pettigrew over the head and he's now lying somewhere in the 
shrubbery.  Or, that Sirius is mental and just likes to point.  Or, 
in the WW, this could mean Pettigrew is drinking polyjuice potion 
and Ron is in a trunk, because Pettigrew is hot for Hermione. 

Why doesn't Lupin want to know what Sirius means? 

Problem 2) Lupin hasn't seen any missing rat fingers at this point. 
So on what evidence was he relying? All he has is that he saw 
Pettigrew's name on the MM.

Problem 3) Lupin can NOT tell from the MM that Pettigrew is in rat 
form.  Yet, in the Shrieking Shack he knows this instantly 1)without 
being told, 2) without even seeing Scabbers.

And, I can think of scenarios that would explain Pettigrew hiding 
out, but still not make him the secret keeper and/or traitor.  Why 
didn't Lupin want to hear what Sirius/Pettigrew had to say before he 
leapt to conclusions about what was going on? 

Everybody is in the room.  Lupin has all the wands.  Let's chat, 
already. Why not hear some explanations before you embrace the guy 
1) you used to think was a spy, 2) who might have killed your other 
best friend, and 2) who might be trying to kill your dead best 
friend's son?

But Lupin gets from A to Z in a snap, supposedly just because 
Pettigrew is still alive. 

Unless you believe he had prior information.

Remnant wrote:
He may also have used a bit of legilimency to see from Sirius or  
Pettigrew who told the truth.

Talisman now writes: 
Well, it's easy to start explaining everything with Legilimacy, now 
that we have it, isn't it. 

I do think that Lupin has some level of empathic power. It may just 
have more to do with his being a great guy.  Some people have a 
superior  facility for understanding others. Call it Emotional I.Q.  
Maybe enhanced by a sort of animal instinct.  But, we have never 
been told that he is a Legilimens. 

And, even if we find out that he is a Legilimens, it also means that 
Lupin knows/believes that Sirius is not skilled in Occlumency.  
Furthermore, Lupin's Legilimency must have been acquired  while 
Sirius was in Azkaban, or he wouldn't have once suspected Sirius of 
being "the spy," and he would have known Sirius was innocent of the 
sell-out, all along.

Moreover, after Lupin tells Sirius that they owe Harry an 
explanation, and Sirius grudgingly agrees, Lupin says: "You'll need 
to help me, Sirius . . .I only know how it began." (PoA 352)

Also, Lupin had not yet made eye contact with Scabbers/Pettigrew, so 
even if he were a Legilimens, he couldn't know Pettigrew's story 
before he started embracing Sirius.  

Remnant wrote:
Or, more realistically (cynically?), JKR needed to keep the scene 
fast-paced, since so much had to happen for her plot.

Talisman now writes:
Really? You mean because she is obviously so adverse to writing long 
books that she couldn't spare a paragraph or two to have 
Sirius/Pettigrew explain?
Tsk, tsk Remnant.  Analysis by coincidence, bad writing, and plot 
expediency?  You've earned yourself a trip to message #80011.  

Then Talisman wrote: I do think Harry was bait. Not Lupin's bait, 
but Fudge's (and of course Dumbledore's--though not for the same 
reasons).

I don't think imprisoned Sirius asked for the crossword, or that he 
even saw the photo with Pettigrew until Fudge gave it to him (Fudge  
knows Sirius is innocent, so does Dumbledore and by the action in  
PoA Snape and Lupin do, too.) Fudge knew the effect the photo would 
have on Sirius. He also helped Sirius escape (Sirius's account of  
why the dementor's didn't effect him and how he escaped doesn't hold 
water.)

Remnant wrote:
Interesting theory! But remember that Sirius was already resisting 
the effect of the dementors pretty well . . . 

Talisman now writes: 
You know, I don't think I will "remember" that.  You may notice, by 
a review of the original paragraph above, that I say : "Sirius's 
account of  why the dementors didn't effect him and how he escaped 
doesn't hold water." So, that would be my position on the matter.

Let's take a look at the details on PoA 371-72, (since I'm betting 
you didn't review this part before you decided to disagree with me):

1. Lupin says he doesn't actually know how he escaped.  He swears he 
didn't use Dark Magic--and no one else has ever escaped from Azkaban-
-but, weak and wandless, Sirius did it without knowing how or what 
he was doing.  In a mystery story, that alone should convince you 
there was outside help.

2. Sirius "thinks" that his innocence saved him from losing his 
mind.  Funny, being innocent didn't save Hagrid when he was sent up 
in CoS.  
 
Hermione: "Is it awful there, Hagrid?" (PoA 220)
"Yeh've no idea," said Hagrid quietly.  "Never bin anywhere like it. 
Thought I was goin' *mad*  Kep'  goin' over horrible stuff . . ." 
(220 my emphasis) "Yeh can' remember who you are after awhile.  An' 
yeh can' see the point o' livin' at all.  I used ter hope I'd jus' 
die in me sleep." (221)

"But you were innocent!" said Hermione  Hagrid snorted.  "Think that 
matters to them? They don't give a damn who's innocent and who's 
not." (221)

(And of course the Dementor's have a mighty effect on Harry.  Are 
you saying he's not innocent?)  The fact is, innocence alone won't 
save you.

But a powerful DD enchantment just might.  Like, if he wanted you on 
ice, so didn't work to get you cleared, but is kind enough to limit 
your suffering?  And then there's that whole Stubby Boardman 
question.   

3. Sirius alternately says he slipped past the Dementors when they 
opened his door to feed him, or that he slipped through the bars.

Now, we know that Sirius "was one of the most heavily guarded 
[prisoners] in [Azkaban]." (PoA 209) With "Dementors outside his 
door night and day." (PoA 209)

The "open door" escape version requires us to believe that, as 
Sirius explains: "It's so much harder for them to sense animal 
emotions that they were confused." (PoA 372)

Odd that they would be confused and bamboozled in close quarters 
when they are specifically guarding him, but they weren't confused 
at all when they swarmed after Padfoot as he ran around the 
spacious, rather populated, Hogwarts grounds on the night of the 
Shrieking Shack scene. (PoA  382)

The "slipped through the bars" version requires us to additionally 
believe that Padfoot, an "enormous bear-like dog" (PoA 381)--large 
and powerful enough to control a werewolf-- could get thin enough to 
slip through prison bars.  Lose all the weight you want, there's 
only so much you can do with skulls and rib cages, etc.  Just how 
widely spaced were those bars?  

Moreover, it appears that the Dementors have the effect of forcing 
Padfoot to transform back to his human form: The "yelping stopped 
abruptly . . . They saw why--Sirius had turned back into a man.  He 
was crouched on all fours, his hands over his head." (PoA 382)

Sirius then gives a shudder, rolls over and lays motionless on the 
ground, "as pale as death." (PoA 383)   Sirius remains knocked-out 
for the duration of the Dementor action.  

Yeah, he's doing a great job of resisting them.  Maybe I can sell 
you some real estate?

Read my lips: Someone sprang Sirius.

Remnant wrote:
. . . and the request for his newspaper may have been so unexpected 
from an Azkaban prisoner that Fudge just gave it to Sirius in open-
mouthed wonder. I guess I just don't want to give Fudge that much 
credit.

Talisman now writes:  
So you think Sirius really was missing that crossword puzzle? And 
even if he did, you think that Fudge, who is outside the bars and 
has the protection of his beloved Dementors, would more likely give 
the evil Sirius his paper than shrink back and tell him to bugger-
off?  

Then Talisman wrote:  This [Fudge wanting to draw the loosed Sirius 
to Harry] explains why Fudge didn't punish Harry for blowing up Aunt 
Marge. He had bigger fish to fry. 

Remnant wrote:
True, but I assumed that his concern for Harry was more political. 
At that point, Harry is kind of a hero or at least a national 
oddity. 

Talisman now writes: 
At least two problems with this explanation.

1) Harry was a national hero from 1981, on.  But that didn't stop 
the M.O.M. from trying to bust him for Dobby's magic in CoS.  (And, 
they have to be able to discern WHO is doing magic at a particular 
address, or how would they ever bust children from wizarding 
families?) I say they were gunning for him.  Ditto Book 5, where he 
clearly fell within the legitimate use exception.  Yet in Book 3, 
the one time they could have honestly nailed him, and for a number 
of violations, they let him go, why?

2) Punishing Harry for underage use of magic, violation of secrecy 
laws, etc. in no way precludes keeping him safe from Black.  There 
is no reason Fudge couldn't do both.

Dim-witted as Harry can be, even he thinks something is 
fishy: "there was something extremely odd going on . . .  this 
didn't tally at all with Harry's past dealings with the Ministry of 
Magic." (PoA  45) 

Remnant continues:
To let the Boy Who Lived die at the hands of the prisoner who 
escaped under Fudge's watch would have been a political disaster for 
Fudgie.

Talisman now writes:
Yeah, Fudgie wanted to be sure Harry was safe and sound, alright.  I 
guess that is why Fudgie ensconced Harry in that fortress of safety: 
The Leaky Cauldron (PoA 44); along with the liver-slurping hags,  
wild-looking warlocks and raucous dwarfs. (PoA 49)

Of course, Fudgie did place Harry under the care of that lethal 
bodyguard, old Tom,  the "wizened, toothless landlord." (PoA 
42)  "Tom will be keeping an eye on you for me" (PoA 46) Alrighty 
then.

Moreover, as Harry wanders around the shops of Diagon Alley, all by 
his lonesome, JKR gives us another POV that we can use in assessing 
Fudge's behavior; that of an actually caring parent who 
says: "Personally, I won't let any of my children out alone until 
[Black's] back in Azkaban." (PoA 50) 

Remnant wrote:
<el snip muy grande>

Talisman now writes:
Hey, that was some good stuff!

Then Talisman wrote:
 You don't think it was a coincidence that he showed up to teach 
DADA this particular year, do you? No, he was a planned part of the  
Sirius comeback tour. 

Remnant wrote:
That's one possibility. But the beauty of JKR's fiendish plotting is 
that it could as easily be that Lupin approached DD only after the 
second year began. 

Well, since the only "fiendish plotting" you've expounded is a 
fiendish pile of coincidence, I'll take this as sarcasm.

Nonetheless, in opposition to your "how can we ever know" 
explanation,  DD tells us at the start of the term that 
Lupin "consented to fill the Defense Against Dark Arts position." 
(PoA 92)  The reasonable inference, then, is that DD asked him.

You know, I welcome thoughtful debate.  But it seems rather poor 
sport to spend the time reading/thinking/documenting my arguments, 
and then have to do the additional work to show folks, who have not 
done any work, that they are just pulling stuff out of their, erm, 
hip pockets.

Remnant wrote:
Or DD asked Lupin before the second year, but based on his books 
thought Lockhart the better candidate.

Talisman now writes:
And people think *I* have a bad opinion of DD.  (Actually, I think 
he rocks--but I don't necessarily want to be part of one of his 
plans.) DD is a Legilimens, and a darn good judge of character. He 
also seems to interview his candidates.  Even Ron and Hagrid are on 
to Lockhart from the word go.  Hagrid's explanation for Lockhart is 
that DD had NO other choice. (CoS 115 )  I say we know that isn't 
true.  For one thing, there are plenty of talented wizards in the 
Order who know all about DADA, and would do whatever DD asked them.  
DD is never acting out of desperation, he chooses whom to place in 
the DADA hot seat, specifically to facilitate his plans.

Talisman wrote: If you just relax and accept it, you'll find it all 
fits so easy.<g>

Remnant wrote:
I know, I'm so darn innocent, but sometimes I want to believe that 
after five books and the intro of the OOP we'd have been told about 
all this. 

Talisman now writes:
1) Innocent, is it?
2) I think "all this" is all there to be seen; and
3) How many mystery stories do you read? Usually they do remain 
mysteries--until the end.

Remnant wrote:
So many loose ends to tie up if all this magic dishwashery stuff is 
to be true!

1) My theories sometimes cross/intersect with Magic Dishwasher, but 
I don't agree with everything the MDD's say, and I'm sure they don't 
necessarily agree with me.

2) If you see my theory, it actually takes care of all the loose 
ends. It's when you are trying to tear it apart that you feel the 
need for so much more information.  

Remnant wrote:
And I just don't think DD is orchestrating everything all the time. 
What about freedom of choice?

Talisman now writes:
What you are saying is that you don't WANT to think DD's in 
control.  That's a different thing altogether than laying a well-
defended argument to show that he's not.  As to freedom of choice, 
per se, I suggest that: 
1) people who think their choices aren't largely delimited (by 
others and circumstances, etc) are somewhat deluded;
2) trying to make the text fit a preconceived ideology leads to bad 
reading;
3) I didn't see any certificate in my books guaranteeing that 
freedom of choice would drive the plot; and 
4) yet you can still find it in spots--and with pretty important 
choices, too--such as when Harry decides not to blast Sirius, and 
then not to let anyone blast Wormtail, etc.   

Talisman, off to talk to Madam Hooch about the problem of games that 
are all Bludger and no Quaffle.