Why is everyone so convinced the prophecy is correct?

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 82216

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "tobyreiner" <tobyreiner at y...> 
wrote:
> I just don't understand why Dumbledore and Voldemort are so 
convinced 
> that Trewlawny's prophecy is correct. Is there any proof that it 
will 
> be? Isn't it possible that her seeing eye got things out of whack? 
Do 
> we know for certain that seers never make mistakes? 
> 

Jen:

The way I look at it, a Prophecy significantly raises the 
*probability* of an event occurring, but doesn't demand that an event 
occur (or that it is fulfilled in a specific way).

It's like in POA, when Dumbledore tells Harry:

"...Hasn't your experience with the Time-Turner taught you anything, 
Harry? The consequences of our actions are so complicated, so 
diverse, that predicting the future is very difficult, indeed....." 
(Dumbledore, POA chap. 21, p. 426).

The same holds true with a Prophecy, IMO. Dumbledore received 
Prophecy #1, assumed a high probability that it was true, and set in 
motion a plan to determine the correct person the Prophecy refers to 
and a protection plan.  But any number of things could interfere with 
the fulfillment of the prophecy, and any number of outcomes could 
fulfill the Prophecy (see HG's post #82166).

With Prophecy # 2, there wasn't any time to make preparations. It was 
fulfilled in a short amount of time. But we saw during the course of 
events that any number of events happening in a different way *could* 
have kept the Prophecy from being fulfilled. If Snape didn't 
interfere, if Lupin had taken his potion, if Ron didn't have a broken 
leg and could have tackled Wormtail....then the Prophecy might *not* 
have been fulfilled, that night anyway.

So, it's all about the odds I'd say. The stakes get very high when a 
legitimate Prophecy is made.