Crying wolf?

[boyd_smythe]

No: HPFGUIDX 81968

> Talisman wrote:
> I agree with Kneasy et al. who find Lupin's "epiphany" implausible. 
> There are too many dots to connect, too many alternative scenerios 
> and even if you guessed right, you'd want to hear it from Sirius, 
> rather than feed him the explanation.  It smells to high heaven of 
> pre-arrangement. <

Another take on this is that Lupin never wanted to believe in his 
heart that his good friend was really the traitor. Even though his 
mind said not to trust Sirius, his heart told him that Sirius was one 
of his best pals. So as soon as a reasonable story comes out 
exonerating the old dog, he believes it. And the finger was the extra 
bit of evidence he needed.

He may also have used a bit of legilimency to see from Sirius or 
Pettigrew who told the truth.

Or, more realistically (cynically?), JKR needed to keep the scene 
fast-paced, since so much had to happen for her plot.

> Talisman: I do think Harry was bait.  Not Lupin's bait, but Fudge's 
> (and of course Dumbledore's--though not for the same reasons).
> 
> I don't think imprisoned Sirius asked for the crossword, or that he 
> even saw the photo with Pettigrew until Fudge gave it to him (Fudge 
> knows Sirius is innocent, so does Dumbledore and by the action in 
> PoA Snape and Lupin do, too.) Fudge knew the effect the photo would 
> have on Sirius.  He also helped Sirius escape (Sirius's account of 
> why the dementor's didn't effect him and how he escaped doesn't hold 
> water.) <

Interesting theory! But remember that Sirius was already resisting the 
effect of the dementors pretty well, and the request for his newspaper  
may have been so unexpected from an Azkaban prisoner that Fudge just 
gave it to Sirius in open-mouthed wonder. I guess I just don't want to 
give Fudge that much credit.

> This explains why Fudge didn't punish Harry for blowing up Aunt 
> Marge.  He had bigger fish to fry. <

True, but I assumed that his concern for Harry was more political. At 
that point, Harry is kind of a hero or at least a national oddity. To 
let the Boy Who Lived die at the hands of the prisoner who escaped 
under Fudge's watch would have been a political disaster for Fudgie.

<el snip muy grande>
> You don't think it was a coincidence that he showed up to teach DADA 
> this particular year, do you?  No, he was a planned part of the 
> Sirius comeback tour. <

That's one possibility. But the beauty of JKR's fiendish plotting is 
that it could as easily be that Lupin approached DD only after the 
second year began. Or DD asked Lupin before the second year, but based 
on his books thought Lockhart the better candidate.

> If you just relax and accept it, you'll find it all fits so easy.<g>

I know, I'm so darn innocent, but sometimes I want to believe that 
after five books and the intro of the OOP we'd have been told about 
all this. So many loose ends to tie up if all this magic dishwashery 
stuff is to be true!

And I just don't think DD is orchestrating everything all the time. 
What about freedom of choice?

-Remnant