Crying wolf?

[Talisman]

No: HPFGUIDX 81961

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "arrowsmithbt" 
<arrowsmithbt at b...> wrote:
> --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "kneazle255" 
<kneazle255 at y...> wrote:
> > 
> > Kneazle255:
> > It must have really struck Lupin like an epiphany. The answer 
would have dovetailed perfectly with what he knew about Peter and 
Sirius' personalities. 

Talisman, loving another look at PoA says:
 
I agree with Kneasy et al. who find Lupin's "epiphany" implausible. 
There are too many dots to connect, too many alternative scenerios 
and even if you guessed right, you'd want to hear it from Sirius, 
rather than feed him the explanation.  It smells to high heaven of 
pre-arrangement.
> >
Kneazle255: 
> > Another possibility is that Remus was using Harry as bait so he 
could have a shot at killing Sirius himself. A totally personal 
vendetta. 

Talisman: I do think Harry was bait.  Not Lupin's bait, but Fudge's 
(and of course Dumbledore's--though not for the same reasons).

I don't think imprisoned Sirius asked for the crossword, or that he 
even saw the photo with Pettigrew until Fudge gave it to him (Fudge 
knows Sirius is innocent, so does Dumbledore and by the action in 
PoA Snape and Lupin do, too.) Fudge knew the effect the photo would 
have on Sirius.  He also helped Sirius escape (Sirius's account of 
why the dementor's didn't effect him and how he escaped doesn't hold 
water.)

This explains why Fudge didn't punish Harry for blowing up Aunt 
Marge.  He had bigger fish to fry.  He expects Sirius to come 
looking for Harry and he's eager to sick a puckered-up dementor on 
him. If Harry is killed in the scuffle (like with Sirius's knife, 
maybe?), why it's two for one, isn't it?  Sirius takes the rap for 
Harry's death, gets permanently silenced about the Godric's Hollow 
incident, and when Fudge gets Sirius, he's a WW hero. 

Why act now? Not entirely clear what motivates Fudge, possibly the 
botched outcome of Malfoy's efforts in CoS. 

But whatever Fudge's immediate interest, look to the 
DD/Snape/Malfoy/Fudge link for the suggestion/instigation. Because, 
under DD's plan it's time to get Sirius off ice and "temporarily" 
into Harry's life.

Check out Fudge's dodgey manner when he's telling Harry how it's 
best for him to stay at the Leaky Cauldron, "`Don't want to lose you 
again, do we?' said Fudge with a hearty laugh.  `No, no . . .best we 
know where you are . . .I mean . . .'" (PoA 46)

 And again after declining Harry's request for permission to go to 
Hogsmeade, "`I fact I think it's best if you 
don't . . .yes. . .well, I'll be off.'" (PoA 47)  

Why can't Fudge seem to finish a sentence?  Afraid what might slip 
out, is he?

We know now it really can't be because he's so worried about Harry.  
He's worried about keeping track of his bait.
> > > 
Kneasy: 
> Aha! Apparently I'm not alone in finding aspects that deserve 
further  consideration in this episode <snip> No, if I put myself in 
Remus' position, knowing just how little he is supposed to know, I 
can't reach the conclusions he did.

Talisman: Unless you're in on the plan.
> 
>Kneasy: 1. Sirius is accepted as guilty by all of the murder of 
Peter.

Talisman: A lot of people know he's innocent: LV, Wormtail, Fudge, 
Malfoy, Dumbledore, Snape, Lupin, probably the Longbottoms, etc. 
> 
Kneasy: 2. Sirius escapes from Azkaban, believed to be after Harry.

Talisman: Only by the greater wizarding community.  All the folks 
supra know that 1)he was sprung 2)he's after Harry, but not to do 
him harm. Though one side thinks they are getting rid of potential 
problems, and the other is setting up for OoP and the LV-Repellent.
>  
>Kneasy: 3. Sirius is expected to sniff around Hogwarts.

Talisman: Oh, yeah. There's a lot of sniffing going on.
> 
> Kneasy:4. Sirius breaks into Gryffindor dorms.
>     (He attacks the wrong bed (not Harry's) so far as everybody 
>     is concerned. The immediate assumption would be that he 
>     has made a mistake. How could he recognise Harry in the 
>     dark when the last time he saw him was when Harry was 
>     a year old?)

Talisman: I'll spare you the rehash. 
> 
> Kneasy: 5. Remus sees Sirius *and* Peter on the map.
>    ( Sirius he might expect, but Peter no. Where did he come
>     from? What is he doing here? Is he after revenge too?
>     Why should Remus assume that Peter has been hiding at 
>     Hogwarts?)

Talisman: Lupin knows it's showtime.
>     
> Kneasy: 6. Sirius, Peter, Ron, Harry, Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all 
depart via the tunnel under the Whomping Willow to the Shack.

Talisman: Let the games begin.
>   
> Kneasy:If Remus knows these facts and *nothing else* is his 
reaction,  behaviour and immediate conviction of Sirius' innocence 
credible?   This is difficult to accept. Unless Remus has been given 
more information from elsewhere to fill in some gaps, his actions 
don't  fit. 

Talisman: I'm hanging tight with the position that Lupin was very 
well informed.

You don't think it was a coincidence that he showed up to teach DADA 
this particular year, do you?  No, he was a planned part of the 
Sirius comeback tour.

Lupin is old Order, and never has a paying job unless DD gives it to 
him. He has always been available for DADA Prof.  DD brings him in 
NOW because of his special connection to Sirius.  He has a definite 
role to play, and he is fully aware of the program.

(DD didn't have to settle for Quirrell or Lockhart, he chose them 
for reasons having to do with his plan, as well.

He knows the effect of his DADA seat, he's the one who enchanted the 
position.

 Actually he could have any of the Order any year, if he wanted 
them.  He uses the old warrior Moody for LV bait/alarm in Gof, and 
he'll use Snape in 6& 7, because it specifically suits his purposes 
to do so.)


If you just relax and accept it, you'll find it all fits so easy.<g>

Talisman, who wonders what would come out if SHE sat in the DADA 
chair.
  
>