What's he up to?

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 94797

Jen:
I used to be a firm believer in Spy!Lucius, thinking he was actually 
working for the Order. Now I've ratcheted that down to ESC!Lucius, 
Ever-So-Compromised Lucius. Whatever is going on, Lucius does NOT 
want LV back in power. He had everything lined up, perfectly, to get 
exactly what he wants in the WW--Fudge in the MOM, seduced by 
wealth; a spot on the Board of Governors of Hogwarts, leading a 
charge to get DD out as Headmaster; a bit of Muggle-toture now and 
then when things get boring.

And it all starts in COS, like Kneasy said:
> But suppose, just suppose, that Lucius *sent*  Dobby with strict 
> instructions to  stop Harry from attending Hogwarts that year and 
if 
> necessary to warn him of danger. What  could that mean? He's still 
not 
> bothered about what happens to Ginny; not surprising when we see 
the 
> animosity between Lucius and Arthur in Flourish and Blotts. He too 
is 
> only concerned about Harry. It's not really feasible that he could 
> foresee Harry defeating Tom, the diary and the Basilisk - Harry's 
only 
> 12, a very novice wizard and is seen more as a pest than as a 
dangerous 
> adversary. He wasn't even known to be a Parselmouth  at the time 
of 
> Dobby's first visit. No, the obvious danger to the plot was DD 
not  
> Harry. And DD  was neatly  sidelined later, once the  corridors 
were  
> strewn with stiffs.
> 
> So although we can assume that Lucius wanted the Basilisk out and 
> about, eyeballing the students, he seemingly didn't want Harry 
> wandering around with a bulls-eye on his back. Why not?  He's on 
> Voldy's team isn't he?

Jen: This and the battle at the MOM give away Lucius' compromised 
position--he needs to keep Harry around. He knows Harry is the ONE. 
In COS, I agree with Kneasy the goal was to get DD out. I don't 
believe Lucius knew that Riddle could fully return out of the diary. 
This was an attempt to wreak havoc at Hogwarts, oust Dumbeldore, 
then proceed to 'rid the school of Mudbloods'. The Basilisk won't 
harm Draco or any other Slytherins, so Lucius doesn't have to worry 
about that. 

But, Lucius is no dummy. He doesn't believe LV is truly gone. Since 
he is armed with the knowledge that Harry is the only one who can 
defeat him, he finds it.....prudent.....to keep Harry alive. And how 
does he know about Harry? Well, perhaps he overheard a little 
conversation in the Hog's Head a long time ago.

At the DOM, we again see Lucius' ambivalence. In post #86407, I 
proposed it was actually Lucius who started the whole 'hunt for the 
Prophecy' nonsense, not to defeat Harry, but LV:

"Who else planted the seed of "obtaining the Prophecy" in LV's ear,
luring Harry Potter to the MOM, and having LV outed to the WW? Who
was the one telling all the DE's "not to kill Harry" in the DOM even
though the other children were expendable in his eyes? He knows
Harry is the One, and much as he and Snape despise "Potter", they
want him to do their dirty business and remove LV for good. Then
they, or Lucius at least, can get on with the business of running
the WW in whatever way he can--bribery, under the table deals, etc."

Kneasy:
 Although even Voldy  seemed to wonder about Lucius's motives 
> when they were re-united in the graveyard. He  claims to smell 
guilt 
> and tells Malfoy he expects a more faithful service in future. And 
> Malfoy's response -  "My Lord, I was on the alert..." You bet he 
was, 
> but for what? Thieves fall out, a truism, but does it apply here? 
And 
> why would Lucius get Harry involved in an possible internal DE 
> power-play? Well, Harry  is supposed to be Voldy's nemesis. A 
fairly 
> risk-free option would be to make sure Harry survives to adulthood 
and 
> the long anticipated showdown and meanwhile Malfoy quietly builds 
a 
> power base - Fudge, the Ministry, the right people in charge of 
> Hogwarts.  Malfoy for Minister. Sneaky. Could even work.

Jen: This is the dance between LV and Lucius. LV is a shrewd 
dictator. He is not immune to the fact that Malfoy has power in the 
mainstream WW, has money, has pureblood status--all the things Tom 
Riddle never had. Malfoy, while he may once have been young and 
idealistic and believed in LV's cause, is now older, wiser and more 
powerful---and he's not going to let some two-bit Evil Overlord 
who's not even pureblood (spits on floor) take anything away from 
him.

LV suspects. But they still need at each other at this point. LV 
can't arouse suspicion by offing Lucius and Lucius needs to manuever 
LV into Potter's clutches so he can be rid of him once and for all.

Kneasy:
> So Malfoy plays both ends against the middle, cooperating with 
both 
> sides to a certain extent until he can pick the winner. How would 
that 
> grab him? I  think he'd like it - he'd think he was being clever. 

Jen: He plays the middle, but there's only going to be one winner in 
his mind, thank you very mcuh....Lucius is on Lucius' side.