What's he up to?

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 94898

Kneasy wrote:
<snip> I'm pretty sure that Lucius knows exactly what Snape's position
is; it'd be difficult for him not to. Fellow DEs and Snape suddenly
stops coming down to the Scout Hut where they learn to tie knots in
Muggles, naturally he'd wonder what was wrong. Then the show trials 
after Voldy vanished where Snape is revealed as an anti-Voldy agent.

Carol:
Snape stopped coming to meetings because he was at Hogwarts. As I've
already argued, this probably happened around September 1 of the year
the Potters were killed, about two months before Godric's Hollow.
Lucius doesn't necessarily know that Snape was arrested and got off,
but he probably suspects that Snape, like Lucius himself and every
other DE who "walked free," used the old Imperio excuse. Lucius being
Lucius, sneaky, slippery, cunning, and untrustworthy, may suspect
Snape of playing both sides, but he doesn't necessarily "know" that
he's doing so, mcuh less that Snape is really firmly on DD's side (at
least so far as the available evidence indicates).

Kneasy again:
Even though Malfoy was charged and found Not Guilty, it should have
set his mind furiously to thinking - "How can I cover my back next
time? How can I be certain of being on the winning side?" Easy. Be on
both sides. He's vain enough to believe he can get away with it. He's
never totally abandoned Voldy, he's never totally committed himself to
the Order; he trims his sails to suit whatever wind is blowing. Make
himself valuable to both sides - pass on information via Snape to the
Order while still being chief roadie to the Voldy Victory Tour. "How
else could I get the information?" he asks in a plaintive voice.

Carol:
What evidence do we have that Malfoy has anything but antipathy or
contempt for the Order (his remark to Snape about seeing Sirius in dog
form on Platform 9 3/4)? He would know through Peter who the former
Order members were and he probably suspected (pre-MoM) that they'd
gotten back together. (Now he *knows* they have.) He also had a pretty
good idea, based on the people who accompanied Harry to the Platform i
OoP, who the new members were. (He may not have recognized Tonks and
we don't know whether he knows she's a Metamorphmagus, but he probably
suspected the Weasleys. and Lupin was already a member of the old Order.

Does he even know that Snape is in the Order? As I've argued
elsewhere, he may guess it now that he's in Azkaban, but why would he
necessarily know before--especially since Snape is as cagey as he is
and knows to trust Malfoy as he would adders fanged? (I'm not
arguing--just asking what you think.)
 

Kneasy:
I think he'd prefer Voldy to win; it would suit his personal
convictions. Get all those mudbloods out of Hogwarts, clear the
do-gooders out of the Ministry, isolate DD. But just in
case.....better make myself useful to the other side.
 
The diary performed it's planned function perfectly. It got DD out of 
the chair at Hogwarts. Malfoy wasn't concerned about a few casualties
at Hogwarts, that sort of person didn't belong there anyway. But the
plan unravelled - there were too many casualties and the genie (snake)
wouldn't go back in the bottle, so parent power got DD re-instated,
not only that, Potter got lucky - again.

Carol responds:
Since "the other side" is essentially Dumbledore (and Harry if and
when he grows up), I don't quite see the diary and the CoS incident
was useful to anyone on the good side. For that matter, I'm not sure
how it would have helped Voldemort.

Here's how I see it. Correct me if I'm wrong. Voldemort was still
vaporized. Malfoy may or may not have known that he had been in the
back of Quirrell's head the previous year. (What, we wonders, was the
condition of Malfoy's Dark Mark at that point? Were there signs that
LV was stirring in Middle Earth, erm, the WW?) He somehow acquired the
diary (I won't go into how, since our discussion some time back never
resolved the question to my satisfaction). He may or may not have
known what it was and who Tom Riddle was. (Did he know then, as he
knows now, that Tom was a half blood? Did it matter?) He put the diary
into Ginny's cauldron apparently hoping that the Chamber of Secrets
would be reopened an more Muggle-borns killed. (Did he know the
monster was a basilisk? Did he know that the Heir of Slytherin was Tom
Riddle, the future Lord Voldemort? Was he trying to resurrect
Voldemort in the form of Tom or just to kill off some Muggle-borns and
make trouble for DD? Did he somehow expect Harry to be killed as well
even though Harry was a half blood? If not, what was Dobby so upset
about?)His plan failed, thanks to DD, Fawkes, and Harry.

But--and here's where it gets interesting--what if the plan had
succeeded? Ginny would be dead and the Weasleys disgraced, various
Muggle-borns would be dead, Dumbledore would be ousted, and Hogwarts
would be closed until matters could be "sorted out" (Draco would be
sent to Durmstrang under fellow DE Karkaroff)--all well and good from
Lucius's point of view. But, and here's the rub, Voldemort would be
back in the form of Tom Riddle--young and alive with what had been
Ginny's life. Was that what Malfoy really wanted? And what if the
*real* Voldemort, at that point still Vapormort, found out about his
other self? Would they merge identities of would they be rival
manifestations of the same evil overlord, Voldemort and his clone?
Imagine Vapormort resurrected by PP, at war with his other self, young
Tom Riddle resurrected (inadvertently or not) by Malfoy's diary ploy.

So my question is: Does Voldemort even know about the incidents in the
Chamber of Secrets and Malfoy's role in them? If so, why didn't he
mention them in the graveyard? Or is Malfoy keeping silent to protect
himself?

Although I agree with Kneasy that "DD knows exactly what 
happened," at least as far as Malfoy's role in initiating the events
is concerned, I disagree that he's "prepared to use Malfoy, maybe even
forgive, so long as it helps gets rid of a greater evil." Snape, yes,
because he has his own reasons for wanting LV utterly and permanently
destroyed. Malfoy, no, because his first concern is himself. Imagine
Dumbledore saying to Harry, "I trust Lucius Malfoy." I don't think so.

Carol, who hopes that people aren't deterred by her long post