New Minister for Magic

[scoutmom21113]

No: HPFGUIDX 96538

Arya: 
I think you underestimate Dumbledore. He was popular enough for 
there to be a public call for him to be Minister before Fudge, he's 
arguable the most popular Chocolate Frog card, he's the Chief 
Warlock on the UK Wizengamot and the UK representative to the 
International Wizards' Council. He's a major mover and shaker 
politically. Fudge just got him discredited temoporarily.

Jim Ferer: 
I think you underestimate Dumbledore's prestige in the wizarding 
world. His name recognition is probably as high as Fudge's (or 
higher), known to every student's family and to a large share of the 
adults as well.

Bookworm:
Okay, you two have a consensus here. <g> I don't think I 
underestimate Dumbledore. He *is* popular and has name recognition. 
He also is very powerful magically, and he has a great deal of 
personal power. He does not have official authority as a member of 
the ministry. What I do think is that Dumbledore has name 
recognition, but his true power isn't recognized by the average 
wizard. He operates behind the scenes, not in the public eye. In RL, 
there are officials whose influence in the leadership is greater 
that their job title would indicate, but that influence is not known 
among the general public. (Conversely, there are officials who are 
not as strong personally as one would think by the title.)

Yes, Dumbledore is Chief Warlock on the Wizengamot. What does that 
mean? Look at how the Wizengamot acted during Harry's hearing. 
Dumbledore's presence during the hearing was critical and, as I 
said, he has personal power – to persuade others if nothing else – 
but does he control the Wizengamot? When you have totalitarians like 
Percy and Umbridge who followed Fudge like puppy dogs mixed in with 
people who think like Dumbledore....

Dumbledore's power is rising and Fudge's is falling. Fudge will 
resent that and cling to every shred of authority he can control. He 
doesn't have the imagination to react creatively, but for Dumbledore 
to openly work against him would create chaos that would only help 
Voldemeort. So Dumbledore will continue to work quietly out of 
public view.

Jim Ferer: 
If I don't think Malfoy will seize the Ministry, assuming he gets 
out (he will), then what do I think the DE's will do? Lash out. 
Harry's friends are in more danger than ever <snip> The DE's must 
feel a pressing need to attack Hogwarts. They can't allow Dumbledore 
and Harry to exist in a secure base, free to plan and launch attacks 
on Voldemort and whoever remains or manages to rejoin him.

Bookworm:
So you think that Malfoy taking over the Ministry would be military? 
I considered it a coup d'etat because I think Malfoy will have help 
from within.  Maybe not. 

I agree the DEs will lash out. But they will have a two-front war. 
First is to take over the Ministry so they can claim that they have 
the "authority" of being the government (SOP in coups and 
rebellions), and to use that as their secure/staging base. IMO, this 
will be the easier task, so they will probably get it out of the way 
first.

Their second front will be Hogwarts, Dumbledore and Harry. Agreed, 
Harry and friends are very much in danger. There will probably be 
DEs assigned to the "Hogwarts Theater of Operations" to cause 
whatever trouble they can (and I'm not discounting the junior DEs 
either), but IMO the initial push will be against the Ministry. As 
of now, I expect the battle at Hogwarts to be "The Last Battle" 
fought in book 7.

Ravenclaw Bookworm