New Minister for Magic (getting long)

[Arya]

No: HPFGUIDX 96546


> Arya Previously in reply to Bookworm:
> I think you underestimate Dumbledore. He was popular enough for 
> there to be a public call for him to be Minister before Fudge, he's 
> arguable the most popular Chocolate Frog card, he's the Chief 
> Warlock on the UK Wizengamot and the UK representative to the 
> International Wizards' Council. He's a major mover and shaker 
> politically. Fudge just got him discredited temoporarily.
> 
> Jim Ferer Previouslyin reply to Bookworm: 
> I think you underestimate Dumbledore's prestige in the wizarding 
> world. His name recognition is probably as high as Fudge's (or 
> higher), known to every student's family and to a large share of the 
> adults as well.
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Bookworm:
> Okay, you two have a consensus here. <g> I don't think I 
> underestimate Dumbledore. He *is* popular and has name recognition. 
> He also is very powerful magically, and he has a great deal of 
> personal power. He does not have official authority as a member of 
> the ministry. 
-------------------
Arya replies now: This is only true if you assume he has not been reappointed 
to the Wizengamot which is *the* judicial authrity of the Ministry.  I do think the 
Wzgmt has a substantial amount of influence on new Ministers (just my feel) 
and no one--most especially Lucius Slick Malfoy can get his name cleasred 
without the Wizengamot clearing it.  Plus, Dumbledore is not just "powerful" but 
"the greatest wizard of modern times".  He laughed in the face of what I have to 
assume is one of the most powerful Aurors Fudge had at his disposal to bring 
with him to Hogwarts in OotP.  Dumbledore didn't break a sweat battling Volde.  
I would argue he is enough for half the country to hide behind if they manage to 
say move to Hogsmeade and the area near Hogwarts.  He may be weird and 
eccentric but Volde's a megalomaniac and doesn't have much better PR.  
--------------------
> Bookworm: What I do think is that Dumbledore has name 
> recognition, but his true power isn't recognized by the average 
> wizard. He operates behind the scenes, not in the public eye. In RL, 
> there are officials whose influence in the leadership is greater 
> that their job title would indicate, but that influence is not known 
> among the general public. (Conversely, there are officials who are 
> not as strong personally as one would think by the title.)
> 
> Yes, Dumbledore is Chief Warlock on the Wizengamot. What does that 
> mean? Look at how the Wizengamot acted during Harry's hearing. 
> Dumbledore's presence during the hearing was critical and, as I 
> said, he has personal power to persuade others if nothing else 
> but does he control the Wizengamot? When you have totalitarians like 
> Percy and Umbridge who followed Fudge like puppy dogs mixed in with 
> people who think like Dumbledore....
----------------------
Arya replies now: 'Chief Warlock' to me sounds like he's the chief in charge.  
----------------------
> Bookworm:Dumbledore's power is rising and Fudge's is falling. Fudge will 
> resent that and cling to every shred of authority he can control. He 
> doesn't have the imagination to react creatively, but for Dumbledore 
> to openly work against him would create chaos that would only help 
> Voldemeort. So Dumbledore will continue to work quietly out of 
> public view.
-------------------------
Arya replies now: I don't think Jim or I meant that Dumbledore would take over 
from Fudge, I meant that if Fudge and his administreation/rule is toppled 
somehow or supplanted nefariously by a DE regime (such as by an escaped 
Lucius Malfoy as you suggested earlier) then I think those declaring 
themselves the new Ministry would be defied openly by Dumbledore and all 
those who would follow him (which I think could surprise you).
---------------------------------
---------------------------------
> Jim Ferer Previously: (Arya adds-he argues against Bookworms suggestion 
that Malfoy will be appointed/elected new MoM)
> If I don't think Malfoy will seize the Ministry, assuming he gets 
> out (he will), then what do I think the DE's will do? Lash out. 
> Harry's friends are in more danger than ever <snip> The DE's must 
> feel a pressing need to attack Hogwarts. They can't allow Dumbledore 
> and Harry to exist in a secure base, free to plan and launch attacks 
> on Voldemort and whoever remains or manages to rejoin him.
> 
> Bookworm:
> So you think that Malfoy taking over the Ministry would be military? 
> I considered it a coup d'etat because I think Malfoy will have help 
> from within.  Maybe not. 
--------------
Arya replies now:  Malfoy was caught red-handed (or white masked) leading 
the DE against Harry.  He doesn't just noe have this against him--this basically 
says he was guilty way back when he claimed Imperius and showed up, as 
Harry said, at Volde's feet when he came back.  Book 'em, Dano!
-----------------
>Bookworm: I agree the DEs will lash out. But they will have a two-front war. 
> First is to take over the Ministry so they can claim that they have 
> the "authority" of being the government (SOP in coups and 
> rebellions), and to use that as their secure/staging base. IMO, this 
> will be the easier task, so they will probably get it out of the way 
> first.
-----------------
Arya replies now: I don't feel all too sure on this.  I guess I feel that since it is so 
easy to Imperio and Polyjuice (and apparently vcery diffucult to prevent, resist, 
detect, and even notice), the DE can infiltrate the MoM silently just like before 
and just promote those who have like values in mind.  If they silently infiltrate 
the Ministry, then they can more easily ferret out those who are outspoken 
leaders in alliance with Dumbledore's fight against Volde and more easily 
weaken their opponents from within.  Kind of like keep your friends close but 
your enemies closer.  Plus, I'd even wager a fair number of galleons that there 
are numerous folks in the MoM right now that would quietly support the 
Pureblood cause and funnel info out to door to ensure their own safety.  
---------------------
> Bookworm:  Their second front will be Hogwarts, Dumbledore and Harry.      
> Agreed, Harry and friends are very much in danger. There will probably be 
> DEs assigned to the "Hogwarts Theater of Operations" to cause 
> whatever trouble they can (and I'm not discounting the junior DEs 
> either), but IMO the initial push will be against the Ministry. As 
> of now, I expect the battle at Hogwarts to be "The Last Battle" 
> fought in book 7.
------------------------
Arya replies now:  I feel much the same way, but, I do not think Volde has 
motive, incentive nor advantage enough to go after Hogwarts.  Harry, since 
Volde does not know that elusive prophecy, is very much an unknown element 
to him.  Dumbledore--he at least respects as one who can duel him soundly.  I 
don't think they'll target Hogwarts as much as they'll target Harry perhaps and I 
mean in a manner that will stalk him, get any info on him they can, threaten his 
friends, and make Harry suffer though making those around him suffer.  
Actually, I guess you did say this, too. The point, though?  er...oh!  I dont' think 
Hogwarts will be so much of a front because Volde and his minions need a 
reason to go after it.  To me, it stands as a fortress (although that is a reason 
Volde may eye it as an ideal base for himself) and that fortress, when fortified 
by Dumbledore and Harry (as he hopefully grows in strength, experience, and 
reputation) is one that can protect those who reside in and around it.  

Arya