The Problem with Lupin (long) was Re: How Close Are Harry and Lupin?

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 97004


Naama:
But the improbabilities I am referring are of a different kind. 
WhenHarry and Ron transformed to Crabbe and Goyle, they kept 
their ownpersonalities. Therefore, regardless of the magical 
transformationpart, it's highly improbable that in ten months DD 
wouldn't sensethat his old friend Moody has had a personality 
transplant.

Pippin:
Voldemort had one high-functioning paranoid impersonate 
another. There is something scarily plausible about that, like a 
science fiction story where Hitler wakes up in Stalin's body.    
There's only so many ways a person can be disfunctional. 
Dumbledore would have perceived that Moody was acting 
strange, but not stranger than usual. 

Naama:
 As for Lupin, the reasons he adduces for not telling DD are 
psychological,not magical (he wasn't bound by some magical 
oath, for instance). And the psychological reasons he gives are 
*unreasonable*, whether in a magical setting or no.

Pippin
We agree on this. Psychologically, it doesn't make sense. But is 
that because JKR is a clumsy writer, or is it because she is 
giving us a fair chance to detect that Lupin's story is fishy?

Some of us are more adept at sniffing out the fishy notes than 
others. There was huge debate over whether OOP!Ginny had 
been given a total personality transplant. Those who bought into 
Harry's previous characterization of her as a sweet, naive child 
were nonplussed, while those who noted signs here and there 
that Harry might be wrong were vindicated. There is ample 
evidence that Harry is not as great a judge of character as he 
thinks he is. He figures he can  spot the wrong sort for himself, 
but he's failed mightily in the past.
 

Naama:
>>According to your theory, Lupin has chosen the dark side
long ago. Long ago he had betrayed his ideals. In JKR's world, 
he is therefore evil now. But he is charaterised *now* as a good 
man. Having said that, I think that JKR might very welll have a 
noblecharacter betray his ideals. However, for it to be effective, it 
musthappen now, not be revealed as having happened long 
ago<<

Long ago, Amy Z also objected that if JKR was going to show 
Lupin deteriorating she needed to do it 'on stage.' But that might 
be happening  now. Supppose ESE!Lupin came to Hogwarts in 
PoA and found that he could respond to Harry, that there was still 
some good in him. He might have rationalized Peter's escape 
and even Voldemort's resurrection. But he's going to find it very 
hard to rationalize Sirius's death.

I believe Lupin panicked when Dumbledore arrived at the MOM. It 
meant Kreacher had talked, but hadn't said enough to implicate 
Lupin--yet.  The Elf might have evaded Dumbledore's questions, 
but if Kreacher lied to Sirius he would have to punish himself. 

Whether Lupin or Bella killed him, Sirius had to die before he 
could question Kreacher himself. Maybe Sirius looked surprised 
as he fell through the Veil because it was Lupin who fired at him, 
or maybe it was because Lupin could have magically pulled him 
back and didn't. 

But that would explain  why Lupin didn't seem upset about losing 
Sirius until he'd seen what it did to Harry.

Pippin