The Timing of Lupin WAS Re: Dumbledore and Lupin

[sophierom]

No: HPFGUIDX 109160

:"Jo Raggett" <aggie at r...> wrote:
 Do you believe that DD hired Lupin *because* Sirius had escaped from
 Azkaban? <Snip>  I'm sure that if DD thought Lupin could
 control his friends once (by making him prefect) then maybe he
thought it would be 
beneficial to have him do it again!  Although he (Lupin) wasn't very
good at it  first time 
around! I think this is whsat happened!  It makes perfect sense to me!

Kneasy wrote:
Oh,  yes. We've had fun and games with this before, but don't let
that stop  you.
How far you're willing to go depends on how much you think DD knows.
Sirius talks in his sleep -  "He's at Hogwarts," and is now  on the
run.
Harry is/will be at Hogwarts.  But why would Sirius wish to harm
Harry?
But there is someone at Hogwarts that Sirius would like to get his
hands on. Peter/Wormtail.
You really don't think that DD didn't know who's inside that
ratskin do you? For all these years, a rat is accepted without
question when students are 
allowed an owl, cat or toad? 

Sophierom:

Very interesting theory, But if DD knew Peter was Scabbers, why not
deal with it himself? 
And why not deal with it immediately? DD believes Harry is the "one."
 Why would he allow 
a Death Eater to live in Harry's dorm room? Perhaps you could argue
that he figured Peter 
was a wimpy death eater at best, one who wouldn't move until
Voldemort gained power 
again.  But after the events of year 1 and 2, DD knows LV is gaining
power.  While DD does 
seem to know a lot, I don't think he knew about Rat!Peter. 

Kneasy:
Though Sirius has no animus towards Harry  the reverse is not true.
Harry believes Sirius was responsible for the death of his parents.
 Fudge, who just happened to be at Azkaban the night before Sirius
escapes, (pure coincidence of course - and if you believe that you
might
want to buy this 100% genuine gold brick) has loosed the Dementors.

Sophierom:

You're right, this isn't a coincidence.  But IMHO, the reason Sirius
escaped the night after 
Fudge's visit is not due to a conspiracy or manipulation on Fudge or
DD's part; it's because 
it was Fudge's newspaper that alerted Sirius to the danger.  Sirius
had no reason to escape 
before.  What good would it do? He's a wanted man. He has no proof
that he's innocent.  
Then, he sees the paper.  He realizes who Scabbers really is.  Now he
has his reason to 
escape.  If he can get to Scabbers, he can at least protect Harry and
have his revenge (he's 
too emotional to consider saving Peter to prove his own innocence).  

Again, you could argue that DD somehow manipulated Fudge into going
to Azkaban, 
giving Sirius the paper, and thus beginning the whole chain of
events.  But if you take that 
route, it seems to me that you're arguing something close to the DD
time-travel theory.  
He would simply know too much, would be acting to begin a chain of
events becuase he's 
already seen them unfold.  

Kneasy:
It all looks as if there's going to be a really interesting
confluence of events.
So how to control it?
 
Well, there's this feller; seemingly looking for work and guess 
what? He 
knows Sirius, Peter, was a friend of the Potters *and* can teach 
Harry how 
to fend off Dementors. How fortunate! Just what we need to help keep
the 
lid on a potentially explosive situation. 

No need to tell Lupin everything; a couple of sentences will be
enough - "Peter's still alive, Sirius may come looking for him, get
close to
Harry and don't let him do anything silly. Oh, and teach him the
Patronus spell, just
in case." Which is what he does - note his first action on entering
the Shrieking Shack  is 
to disarm Harry, not to bind Sirius hand and foot, which is what
you'd expect him to do.

Sophierom:

I don't have my book here, so I can't be sure, but isn't the reason
Lupin doesn't bind Sirius 
immediately that Lupin has seen Peter's name on the map, and he now
knows the Sirius is 
innocent? If this is the case, then of course he's going to disarm
Harry first. He knows 
Harry is out for revenge, and Lupin doesn't want Harry hexing the
wrong man.

Kneasy:
Lupin links all the participants involved. Harry, Sirius, Peter. He's
not there by chance.

Sophierom:

I agree that he's not there by chance.  What I'm not sure about is
that DD orchestrated the 
whole thing.  I could buy Jo's idea (above) that DD chose Lupin
because he thought Lupin, 
as one of Sirius's old friends, might best know how to protect Harrry
from him.  And you're 
exactly right when you say that Lupin links all the participants
involved; but I think this is 
an example of JKR's omnipotence and not DD's.  As author, she's the
ultimate chess player 
and she can decide when to play what piece.  The question is, does
she play the Lupin 
piece in order to hint at DD's craftiness? I don't think so.  I think
she plays Lupin because 
she thought it was time that Harry learn more about his family, and
who better to do so 
than one of his father's old friends.  Also, Lupin continues the
theme begun in book 2 - 
tolerence.  In book 2, we see the introduction of the term mudblood,
and we get 
intorduced to "peculiar institution" of house elves.  Then we're
shown a werewolf who is 
the best DADA instructor in Harry's 3 years, and he's basically being
ousted because of his 
"condition."  

Just my thoughts. Thanks for bringing up such interesting theories!

Sopehierom