The Timing of Lupin WAS Re: Dumbledore and Lupin

[Bex]

No: HPFGUIDX 109187

Kneasy wrote:
>> > > "Fudge, who just happened to be at Azkaban the night before 
Sirius escapes > > >> 
And DuffyPoo answered:
>> > Hmm...my book doesn't say anywhere that Fudge was at 
Azkaban 'the night before' Sirius escaped.  Fudge said he was out 
there on an inspection, and gave Sirius the paper because he said he 
missed doing the crossword puzzle.  Sirius says "But then I saw Peter 
in that picture ...blah blah blah ...So, *one* night when they opened 
the door to bring me food, I slipped past them as a dog."  One night, 
not "that night." I imagine it took Sirius a few hours at least, a 
day or two probably, to formulate his plan. Harry had gotten that 
picture from Ron, in the early hours of his 13th birthday, shortly 
after 1 a.m. The newspaper clipping said the Weasleys would be 
spending a month in Egypt, Ron said they would be back about a week 
before school started. The picture could have been taken anytime 
during the last week of July, Ron saving it to send with Harry's 
birthday card. Harry found out about Black's escape a few hours later 
on the Muggle news. Fudge had informed the Muggle Prime Minister of 
Black's escape but would he have done that the moment Black escaped 
or would he not have waited a few days to see if the Dementors could 
get him back first? < <<

Yb's comments:
Actually, Ive wondered about this too, and I think that Sirius had to 
have at least 24 hours to formulate his plan, probably 4-7 days. 
Fudge later comments (I think he does... I KNOW someone does) that 
Sirius has been talking in his sleep: "He's at Hogwarts." Thus, if 
Fudge gives him the paper one *day*, then Sirius sees the picture, 
then he has to sleep (or else no one would have heard his mumblings), 
then escaped the *next* night. Therefore, at least 36 hours, give or 
take, have to elapse between that fateful visit and Sirius escaping. 
And Duff is right, Fudge wouldn't *dare* admit that he lost the most 
wanted wizard of all time. He'd wait 2 or 3 days to see if his 
precious dementors could catch up with him, before telling the PM. I 
see him as just that kind of politician.


Also, Kneasy:
>> > > "You really don't think that DD didn't know who's inside that 
ratskin do you? For all these years, a rat is accepted without 
question when students are allowed an owl, cat or toad?" < < <<

And DuffyPoo pointed out:
>> > You've forgotten Lee Jordan's giant tarantula that he brought 
with him in his third year. < <<

Yb again:
I think DD did know something was special about that rat. Percy had 
it for years before Ron even got to Hogwarts. As a side note, We only 
know /firsties/ are allowed a cat, toad, or owl. The letters 
afterward make no mention of pet restrictions for older students. So 
Percy could have only brought the rat to Hogwarts the last 1 or 2 
years, still giving DD plenty of time to realize that he is one 
strange critter. This would explain why Ron was allowed to bring the 
rat: Maybe DD sensed something about that critter and told MM to 
conviently "forget" that pet remark in Ron's letter.

~Yb