Release Prediction (WAS Re: Caradoc Dearborn)

[Jason]

No: HPFGUIDX 109504

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Bex" <hubbarrk at r...> wrote:
> Lene' wrote:
> > One thing to bear in mind is that for most publishing houses, 
there 
> > is at least 9-12 months needed between the time they receive the 
> > completed book to the time it is actually published and ready to 
> > put out on the shelves. Last I heard, JKR is still working on the 
> > book, so I doubt it would have time to get to her publisher and 
get 
> > edited, etc., by this Christmas. Sorry!
> 
> Yb: Agreed, though I think the publishers may expedite the process 
as 
> much as possible. I'd really like to know just where she is in the 
> writing process. Revising rough draft, final editing before 
> publisher, finishing touches, or still writing the &$@#ed thing!
> 
> ~Yb


Jason:

   I was bored enough the other day to try and figure it out 
mathematically... even though thats not really possible. It was 
spurred by JKRs comment that she doesnt foresee any baby related 
delays which led me to believe that she plans to be finished writing 
before the kid is born. On to the math...

I started with the 3 years it took for us to get OoP. During those 3 
years she wrote 38 chapters of Oop and 98 pages of FB and QTTA. AND 
she had a baby.

So, I checked in OoP and noticed that the first 5 chapters cover 97 
pages. So, 38 chapters of OoP and about 5 Chapters worth of charity 
books. 42 Chapters and a baby in 36 months. I subtracted about 6 
months for the baby delays to get 30 months. So, 42 chapters. I 
figure that comes out to 1.4 chapters per month (including editing 
and publishing). So another book of 38 chapters should take 27 months.

   But, she also said she didn't expect HBP to be as long as OoP, so 
maybe only 35 chapters which, by my crazy and probably not so 
accurate calculations, could be done in 25 months which would put the 
publication about next July. Since she seems to release the books on 
or around June 21, they could probably get the book out by.........

                        June 21, 2005.

Now, feel free to laugh or ridicule.. or correct the math..(how long 
does a baby delay a woman anyway?)

Jason