Release Prediction (WAS Re: Caradoc Dearborn)

[snow15145]

No: HPFGUIDX 109523


> Jason:
> 
>    I was bored enough the other day to try and figure it out 
> mathematically... even though thats not really possible. It was 
> spurred by JKRs comment that she doesnt foresee any baby related 
> delays which led me to believe that she plans to be finished 
writing 
> before the kid is born. On to the math...
> 
> I started with the 3 years it took for us to get OoP. During those 
3 
> years she wrote 38 chapters of Oop and 98 pages of FB and QTTA. AND 
> she had a baby.
> 
> So, I checked in OoP and noticed that the first 5 chapters cover 97 
> pages. So, 38 chapters of OoP and about 5 Chapters worth of charity 
> books. 42 Chapters and a baby in 36 months. I subtracted about 6 
> months for the baby delays to get 30 months. So, 42 chapters. I 
> figure that comes out to 1.4 chapters per month (including editing 
> and publishing). So another book of 38 chapters should take 27 
months.
> 
>    But, she also said she didn't expect HBP to be as long as OoP, 
so 
> maybe only 35 chapters which, by my crazy and probably not so 
> accurate calculations, could be done in 25 months which would put 
the 
> publication about next July. Since she seems to release the books 
on 
> or around June 21, they could probably get the book out by.........
> 
>                         June 21, 2005.
> 
> Now, feel free to laugh or ridicule.. or correct the math..(how 
long 
> does a baby delay a woman anyway?)
> 
> Jason

Snow:

Here are a couple of interesting responses from JKR during an 
interview with Jeremy Paxton:

BBC News
Thursday, 19 June 2003

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/3004594.stm


JEREMY PAXMAN: You mentioned in the previous books you finished one 
and immediately started the next. Have you started the sixth one? 

JK ROWLING: Yeah. 

JEREMY PAXMAN: How far are you into it? 

JK ROWLING: Not that far because I had a baby. But yeah, I started it 
when I was still pregnant with David. And I actually did get some 
writing done the other day, and that's not bad going considering he's 
only ten weeks. So he's pretty full time at the moment. But yeah I 
did a bit more the other day. 

AND

JEREMY PAXMAN: So you didn't have writer's block. The reason this 
book has been - what three years.... Three years since the last one 
isn't it? Why has it taken so long? 

JK ROWLING: Well it hasn't.
 
JEREMY PAXMAN: Huh? 

JK ROWLING: Well it hasn't. The book didn't take that long


You may want to get your calculator out again, Jason. Could be sooner 
than your calculations!