Snape's part in death of Sirius

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 107933

Asian_lovr2 wrote:
Approximately 450 miles from my best guess location of Hogwarts in an
unpopulated area of the highlands to central London.
<snip an interesting theory of thestral flight>
Two hours travel time seems excessive based on my interpretation of
the fight. One hours seems closer to my read.

Neri now: 
Steve, I'm afraid such a short flight might create a problem with in 
your timeline, as we'll see in a minute.

Asian_lovr2:
As a side note, Today July 27
Begin civil twilight 5:19 a.m.
End civil twilight 9:19 p.m.

Neri again:
Thanks. I already have even more accurate figures. According to:
http://www.onlineweather.com/v4/uk/sun/Edinburgh.html#June 
sunrise would be at about 4:30 am and sundown at 10:00 pm. So I'll 
assume Harry and Co took flight from the forest at about 10:00 pm 
because JKR describes twilight falling soon after they take off (Ch. 
34). I'll also assume Harry is sent back to DD's office at about 4:00 
am, because he can see the first light of dawn on the horizon through 
DD's window (Ch. 37). 
 
Asian_lovr2:
At that point, Harry believe Sirius has been taken
to the Ministry by Voldemort. Snape intent is to verify that Sirius is
at Grimmauld Place which he does. However, we don't know the exact
contents of that conversation. Remember at this time it's about 6pm;
still daylight, and the Ministry is probably still occupied, so the
whole idea is pretty far fetched.

Neri:
Actually my estimation would be more like 8pm. We know it was dinner 
when Harry, Hermione and Umbridge left for the forest, and "the sun 
was falling towards the tops of the trees" (Ch. 33)

Asian_lovr2:
Snape may very well have relayed to Lupin and Sirius that Harry
thought Sirius was at the Ministry of Magic. 

Neri:
Big objection here. We'll get to that later.

Asian_lovr2:
That would not have been
cause for anyone to rush off and do anything. The logical next step
would have been to simply tell Harry that Sirius was safe.
Unfortunately, since Harry was in Umbridge and the I-Squad's custody,
<snip>
So, we have students in the custody of an armed teacher and high
ministry official, even though they may be in the woods, that's not
necessarily cause for panic or drastic action. So... he waits.

Neri:
Pity you don't supply any times in your timeline. May I assume you 
mean this happens at about 9:00 pm? Only an hour after UHH left for 
the Forest (I'm being generous to Snape here).

Asian_lovr2:
Certainly, after an hour he would start to wonder and worry, but still
not time to panic yet.

Neri:
I add another hour, so it's now 10:00 pm. Harry and Co. are taking 
off from the forest to London.

Asian_lovr2:
Not much later, he would become concerned
enough to contact the Order with his suspicion that Harry would
attempt to travel to London, 

Neri:
So it's now about 10:30 pm, "only" 2.5 hrs after UHH had left for the 
forest. Snape finally notified the Order the second time. But Harry 
and Co. are still in the air on their way to London (you suggested 1 
hr travel time). I think you begin to see the problem.

Asian_lovr2: 
then he went to search for Harry.
If Harry wasn't found, and Snape knew Harry's friends entered the
woods to aid Harry, and they too could not be found. Now it's time to
panic. So, he marshals the troops and sends them off to the Ministry
to rescue Harry and friends if need be. <snip>

Neri:
Now you got it slightly wrong:
----------------------------------------------
OotP, Ch. 37:
    'When, however, you did not return from your trip into the Forest 
with Dolores Umbridge, Professor Snape grew worried that you still 
believed Sirius to be a captive of Lord Voldemort's. He alerted 
certain Order members at once.'
    Dumbledore heaved a great sigh and continued, 'Alastor Moody, 
Nymphadora Tonks, Kingsley Shacklebolt and Remus Lupin were at 
Headquarters when he made contact. All agreed to go to your aid at 
once.
-----------------------------------------------

Canon is quite clear here. The Order members decided to go "at once" 
after Snape contacted them the second time.

Asian_lovr2: 
I see no problem with that timeline.

Neri:
I see two big problems.

First, if Snape notified HQ the second time around 10:30, and they 
went "at once" to the DoM (give them 30 minutes for the argument with 
Sirius and delegating HQ to Kreacher), and they travel to the MoM 
almost instantaneously (aparating or floo), then they are there at 
11:00. That's exactly in time to meet Harry and Co. who are just 
landing. So in fact your timeline demonstrates exactly how easily 
Snape could have prevented the whole battle and Sirius' death if he 
had only done things RIGHT.

Since we know things were not right, the second problem with your 
timeline is that Harry is sent back to DD's office at about 4:00 am. 
So if the Order members got to the DoM at 11:00 pm it means the time 
they fought the DE's, Sirius death and the battle with Voldy took 
together 5 hrs. This seems waaaay too long.

Here is a much more reasonable timeline. I noted the parts that are 
canon:

7:00 pm - Umbridge catches Harry in her office.
7:30 pm - Harry tells Snape "he got Padfoot at the place were it's 
hidden".
8:00 pm - Umbridge, Harry and Hermione go to the forest. Harry hears 
the sounds of dinner in the great hall (canon). At the same time, 
Snape is contacting the Order for the first time.
8:15 pm - before Snape is back from talking with HQ, Ron and Co break 
away and run after UHH.
9:15 pm - UHH encounter the centaurs.
9:30 pm - Ron and Co find Harry and Hermione in the forest.
10:00 pm - Twilight falls as Harry and Co take off to London (canon!).
11:30 pm – Harry and Co land near the MoM entrance (travel time 1:30 
hrs) 
Midnight (very appropriate!) – Harry and Co arrive at the DoM.
1:00 am – Harry and Co had finally finished touring the DoM. Harry 
takes the Prophecy.
2:00 am -  The Order members break into the death room and battle 
with the DEs.
2:30 am – DD appears in the death room. Sirius dies. 
3:00 am -  The Voldy vs DD match.
4:00 am – DD sends Harry to his office by Portkey. Harry sees the 
first light of dawn from the office window (canon).

Being generous to Snape (again) I assume that, from the minute Snape 
contacted HQ the second time, it took the Order members a whole hour 
to get to the DoM (time for argument with Sirius, Delegating HQ to 
Kreacher, apparating in the MoM, finding Harry and Co in the death 
room). According to my timeline they got there at 2:00 am, so Snape 
contacted HQ the second time only at 1:00 am. This means he waited 
whole 5 hours since UHH went to the forest. Out of this, almost 3 hrs 
are after dark.

If you want to decrease this extremely irresponsible waiting time, 
you must allocate more time to the Order fighting the DEs and DD 
fighting Voldy, because Harry must arrive at DD office at 4:00 
(canon!). I gave them 2 hrs for these two battles together. Reading 
the description in the book, I can't imagine it took more than 3 hrs. 
With a LOT of stretching we might get Snape to wait "only" 4 hrs. 
  
Now back to the question: did Snape tell the Order anything the first 
time he contacted them?

Asian_lovr2:
We don't know that happened or what was said when Snape first
contacted Sirius, but I doubt that it went like this -

Snape: Lupin! Lupin! It's important that I speak with Sirius 
immediately.

Lupin: He's here, I'll run and get him.

Sirius (comes running): What! What is it! What's happened?

Snape: Nothing. ...bye.


Neri:
Canon is very succinct at this point:
-------------------------------------------
OotP, Ch. 37
Professor Snape found that Sirius was alive and safe in Grimmauld 
Place.
--------------------------------------------

Everything else, such as your suggestion that Snape told them about 
Harry having a vision of Sirius in the DoM, is speculation. My guess 
of the conversation is that Snape would not even talk to Sirius:

Snape: Lupin! Is Black there?

Lupin: Good evening Severus. Sirius is upstairs tending to Buckbeak. 

Snape: Are you absolutely sure he's there?

Lupin: Yes. Do you want to talk with him?

Snape (sneering): Not really. Just checking (hangs up). 


Asian_lovr2:
Logically, Snape would give them a basic explanation. But as I said
before, no one would see this a cause for panic. Especially when Harry
was currently in Umbridge's custody, and not in a position to take any
rash actions.


Neri:
"Logically" for us and every reasonable person, but not for Snape. 
Your speculation that Snape gave HQ "a basic explanation" doesn't 
seem likely. Sirius would have been very worried about Harry in such 
a case. He would have been afraid that Harry might be possessed by 
Voldemort. Quite enough reason for panic, I would think, especially 
as DD is not in Hogwarts to look after Harry. Sirius would have 
demanded to know EXACTLY what's going on with Harry, especially when 
hearing that he is held by Umbridge. Lupin would have told Snape to 
find out and get back to them with an answer ASAP, certainly not 
after 5 hrs (can you imagine Sirius sits quietly and waiting 5 hrs 
for a word from Snape?). If they indeed demanded this and Snape 
didn't get back to them immediately, then he is even less responsible 
than I think he is. Had Snape got back to them immediately explaining 
that Harry was taken to the forest by Umbridge, Sirius would have at 
once volunteered to apparate to the forest with a broom and track 
them (he knew the Forbidden Forest very well). Lupin would have 
probably gone with him, and they had then almost two full hours to 
find Harry and Co before they took off to London. In the meantime the 
paranoid Moody would have surely, just in case, increased the alert 
level of the watch on the MoM, add more guards, and probably look for 
DD to tell him that Harry might be possessed (at that time he had 
more than 4 hrs to find DD before Harry enter the DoM). DD would have 
then added 2+2 and get the correct answer. The whole tragedy could 
have been prevented VERY easily. All was missing was just a tiny bit 
of responsibility.    

Neri