Snape's part in death of Sirius - Revised Time

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 108146

> Asian_lovr2:
> 
> <snip> From Snape's point
> of view there is no reason to panic. And remember, all the 
information
> Snape has is - (Chapt 23 - Out of The Fire)
> 
> - Umbridge and the I-Squad have captured Harry and friends
> - Umbridge wants Veritaserum
> - Umbridge 'found Potter using my/her fire to communicate with a
> person or Persons unknown'.
> - Umbridge want to interogate Harry
> - Harry says "He's got Padfoot! ... He's got Padfoot at the place
> where it's hidden!"
> 
> That's it. 

Neri:

First, lets clarify one thing. Snape understood Harry had a vision 
from Voldy's mind:
--------------------------------------------------------
 OotP, Ch. 37
    'Kreacher told me last night,' said Dumbledore. 'You see, when 
you gave Professor Snape that cryptic warning, he realised that you 
had had a vision of Sirius trapped in the bowels of the Department of 
Mysteries.
--------------------------------------------------------

Snape's responsibility is of course a subjective question. Especially 
since it is not his actions that are in question here, but his non-
actions. He mostly did nothing. So I guess each of us will have to 
decide if he/she would have done something in his place, and what. 
But first lets consider the real situation.

> Asian_lovr2:
> 
> From the
> perspective of the Order, all Snape had to do was tell Harry that
> Sirius was OK. From the perspective of Snape, Sirius was at home and
> Harry was at school with the additional bonus that Harry was also in
> trouble; so all was right with the world. 
> 
> Nobody had to do anything at this time, and they didn't.

Neri:
Many of the participants in this thread seem to take this approach - 
the only danger to Harry is that he will be lured to the DoM and 
retrieve the prophecy for LV. As long as Snape doesn't have reason to 
think that Harry can do that, everything is dandy. But in fact there 
are several other very material dangers to Harry that the Order is 
well aware of:

1. Harry might simply get killed. By a dementor, by a DE, or by an 
acromantula in the Forbidden Forest.

2. Harry might be possessed by LV. Moody had already brought up this 
possibility in Christmas, and we know he wasn't far from the truth.

3. Harry might be kidnapped by a DE or by an agent of LV. In that 
case they might try smuggling him into the DoM and make him retrieve 
the prophecy for them by threatening the life of one of his friends 
(as they actually almost managed to do just before the Order members 
arrived at the DoM). BTW an agent of LV might be almost anyone. 
Umbridge certainly might be LV's agent. Is Snape so sure she isn't?

4. Even if Umbridge is not LV's agent, she still might squeeze very 
sensitive information out of Harry, if not by Veritaserum then by 
other means. 


Does the Order consider these dangers material? You bet. They watch 
Harry like hawks in any place but Hogwarts and GP. They guard him in 
the Dursleys house, on the way to GP, when he goes to the hearing at 
the MoM, in his way to the Hogwarts Express, at the Hog's Head, in 
the Knight Bus. The only place in which they seem to let him wander 
out of their sight, for no more than an hour, is St. Mungo's. But I 
assume that St. Mungo's is protected in a similar way to Hogwarts (or 
the DEs could get rid of Bode much more easily – just apparate in the 
Ward and AK him). Losing Harry for several hours in a dangerous place 
like the Forbidden Forrest with a suspicious person like Umbridge 
would be, IMO, unthinkable for any Order member (or for any Order 
member other than Snape). And would they allow that Ron and Hermione 
are acceptable substitutes for Order guards? C'mon! 

As an aside: Is the Forbidden Forest included in Hogwarts' anti-
apparation defense? I couldn't find out in canon. Even if it is, any 
wizard can apparate near the forest and then use a broom to scan it 
and track anybody in it, exactly as Harry did when he followed Snape 
and Quirrell on his Nimbus in SS/PS. This wizard can also disguise 
himself with a disillusionment charm, same as Moody used on Harry in 
the beginning of OotP, so nobody would see him. This is true for 
Lupin and Sirius, who could easily track Harry in the forest without 
Umbridge seeing them if only they were notified about the situation. 
This is also true for any DE who wanted to kidnap Harry. 

So what kind of response would be expected from an Order member in 
Snape's situation? Actually we can estimate this quite accurately, 
because a very similar situation did happen before: the attack on 
Arthur. At that night before the Christmas holydays the initial 
information about the situation was very similar to the information 
Snape had: Harry says he had a vision of an Order member being 
attacked. Lets see what were the Order's priorities in this case:


1. Get Harry immediately to DD (McGonagall does this without 
hesitation).

2. Ascertain that Harry indeed had a vision from LV's mind ("How did 
you see it?")

3. Send an inquiry regarding the status of the Order member in 
question (through the portraits).

4. Test that Harry is not possessed by LV at this very moment ("in 
essence divided", and note that DD performs the test even BEFORE he 
gets an answer from the portraits that Arthur was indeed attacked).

5. Divert Umbridge (DD to McGonagall: "tell her any story").

6. Alert HQ to the situation (I'm not discussing rescuing Arthur 
because it is not relevant to Snape's case).

7. Get Harry to HQ (and notice DD didn't have to do it just because 
Arthur was attacked. He could have sent Harry back to his bed. But he 
wanted Harry out of Umbridge's reach). 


All these actions were carried out, as much as I can estimate from 
reading it, within half an hour of the first alert. This is what I 
call responsible and timely action.

Out of all the above, Snape did only #3. He couldn't carry out 1, 2, 
4, 5 and 7 because of the problematic situation. Is this a reason to 
just not do them and forget about it? On the contrary, all the more 
reason to announce red alert, warn everybody (especially DD) and 
demand immediate assistance and reinforcements. There are 
speculations (not canon) that Snape did carry out #6. That is, that 
he actually told HQ what happened and not merely checked that Sirius 
is in HQ. Personally I don't believe this speculation, exactly 
because any other Order member would have made sure priorities 1, 2, 
4, 5 and 7 are carried out ASAP.

Snape was the only member of the Order left in Hogwarts. From the 
Order's point-of-view he was Harry's last line of defense. He was 
also Harry's last communication channel to the Order. Snape knew 
that, and he certainly knew what were the dangers to Harry. He also 
realized that Harry is under a mind attack from LV (again, DD 
specifically mentions that he was). All Snape did was ensuring that 
Sirius is OK. After that he either didn't bother to check about 
Harry's situation, or he did check, found that the suspicious 
Umbridge took him to the dangerous Forbidden Forest, and did nothing 
about it (not even keeping HQ posted!) for several hours. Several 
members speculated that he was too busy with other chores, such as 
dehexing the Slytheryns. If this is true, then this is exactly 
because he tried to handle a complicated emergency situation all by 
himself, instead of calling reinforcements immediately. 

Responsible? You decide. What is almost certain is that if Snape 
would have acted in the same manner as McGonagall and DD did, the DoM 
battle and Sirius' death would have been prevented. 

Neri