Snape's part in death of Sirius - Revised Time

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 108169

> Neri:
> 
> First, lets clarify one thing. Snape understood Harry had a vision 
> from Voldy's mind:
> --------------------------------------------------------
>  OotP, Ch. 37
>     'Kreacher told me last night,' said Dumbledore. 'You see, when 
> you gave Professor Snape that cryptic warning, he realised that you 
> had had a vision of Sirius trapped in the bowels of the Department
of 
> Mysteries.
> --------------------------------------------------------
<snip>
> But first lets consider the real situation.

Pippin:
Um, yes. Harry has been having visions of the Department of Mysteries
for months. Now he's had another. In this one,  Sirius was being held captive 
and Harry's upset about it.  Snape checks immediately and finds, no doubt to 
his sardonic dismay, that Sirius is not being held captive. 

Snape should certainly report this to Dumbledore when he becomes 
available -- it's not Snape's fault that Dumbledore is incommunicado. But 
cause for worry? As far as Snape knows, and Harry tried very hard to give him 
an image of what was in his mind, the  vision was little different from any of the 
others except that it has Potter upset. But that's a good thing, from Snape's 
point of view. Harry's been much too casual about the vision thing so far. 

That Snape should only become worried when Harry fails to return from
the Forest is perfectly sensible. The Forest *is* part of the grounds:
PS/SS ch 7:  "First years should note that the forest in the grounds is forbidden
to all pupils.  And a few of our older students would do well to remember that 
as well." 

Snape tells us that, "the walls and grounds of Hogwarts are guarded 
by many ancient spells and charms to ensure the bodily and mental safety of
those who dwell within them" ch 24 OOP  [emphasis mine] Snape goes on to 
explain that because of these protections, The Dark Lord can only put
 thoughts into Harry's head when Harry's mind is relaxed and vulnerable--not 
likely to be the case while he's with Umbridge! She's no legilimens, obviously.

As long as Harry is on the grounds, even in the forest, Snape would
think he is reasonably safe,  Aragog is an XXXXX monster but there's no 
canon that Snape  knows about him. "Rumours that a colony of Acromantula 
has been established in Scotland are unconfirmed." FBAWTFT  He doesn't 
know about Grawp either.  We know it's  not a full moon because Lupin is not
transformed, so no fear of werewolves.

Aside from the centaurs, and Snape has no more reason to think they
will harm Harry than Hermione does, there's no canon that there's anything
else in the Forest that a competent wizard couldn't cope with--and Harry
is a  competent wizard, even Snape would have to admit that.  Harry has
taken his OWLs, and is presumably no longer in danger of having his wand
snapped if he's expelled. Harry is now almost three years older than Fred and
George were when they got that warning from DD. He's not an ickle firstie
anymore. It's true he didn't have his wand when he went in, but the DA is right 
behind him...they'll catch up to Harry before Snape could, and certainly before 
Sirius or Lupin could. The DA won't be attacked by centaurs, and Harry won't 
blast them unconscious.

Harry has wandered out of bounds before, with the knowledge and tacit 
consent of the Headmaster. Why should Snape panic about that? Maybe,
if Potter  were off the grounds, but as far as Snape knows, he isn't.
The last time he went roaring off to Potter's rescue  (in PoA) he got knocked 
out for his troubles, and told by none other than Dumbledore that there was 
no need to trouble Harry or Hermione further. Well, Snape can take a hint. 

Neri:
> Even if it is, any wizard can apparate near the forest and then use
a broom to scan it  and track anybody in it, exactly as Harry did when he
followed Snape and Quirrell on his Nimbus in SS/PS. This wizard can also
disguise  himself with a disillusionment charm, same as Moody used on Harry 
in the beginning of OotP, so nobody would see him. This is true for  Lupin
and Sirius, who could easily track Harry in the forest without  Umbridge
seeing them if only they were notified about the situation.  This is also
true for any DE who wanted to kidnap Harry. <

Pippin:
Very imaginative!  But there is no canon that disillusionment charms
work on Centaurs. There is canon that  they can see many things that humans 
cannot. And they're always watching the sky. "Ruddy stargazers" Hagrid 
called them. 

Neri:
 Lets see what were the Order's priorities in this case:
> 
> 
> 1. Get Harry immediately to DD (McGonagall does this without 
> hesitation).

Pippin:
Okay. What do you think she'd have done if DD had made himself
unplottable  and she knew he'd be back in touch in about six 
hours? 

Neri:
 2. Ascertain that Harry indeed had a vision from LV's mind ("How did 
you see it?")

Pippin:
Snape need not doubt that Harry has had a vision. He's *quite*
familiar with this ability of Harry's, thank you very much. <g>

Neri:
> 4. Test that Harry is not possessed by LV at this very moment ("in 
 essence divided", and note that DD performs the test even BEFORE he 
 gets an answer from the portraits that Arthur was indeed attacked).<

Pippin:
How can Snape do this? Isn't he shut out of Dumbledore's office along
with everyone else?

Neri:
> 5. Divert Umbridge (DD to McGonagall: "tell her any story").

Pippin:
Umbridge has been diverted, into the forest, and told a story,
concerning the weapon. She does not know that Harry has been having 
visions, and Harry clearly understands that she shouldn't find out. That was 
the information Dumbledore was concerned to keep from her (which applies 
to Neri's point 7 also.)

Neri:
> 6. Alert HQ to the situation (I'm not discussing rescuing Arthur 
 because it is not relevant to Snape's case).

Pippin:
It is this delay we are talking about. But if McGonagall hadn't been
able to reach Dumbledore at once, who would she have consulted?    It's
possible that you are right, and Snape waited as long as he dared because 
he didn't really care what happened to Harry. But it's also possible that he
waited as long as he dared because he didn't trust anyone at HQ except DD. 

Neri:
> 7. Get Harry to HQ (and notice DD didn't have to do it just because 
 Arthur was attacked. He could have sent Harry back to his bed. But
he  wanted Harry out of Umbridge's reach). <

Pippin:
Also out of *Dumbledore's* reach. The great fear he had was that
Voldemort would force him to attack Harry. Note also that despite this fear, 
and that Umbridge is on her way, he waits for  Phineas to find out if "the coast 
is clear" before sendingHarry to GP.  *That's* significant.  Surely with Harry's 
safety at stake, Dumbledore wasn't worried about mere politeness, or about 
catching Sirius with his pants down. What, or who, was Dumbledore afraid of?

What it comes down to is that  Dumbledore should have been notified 
immediately. I have no argument with that. But we have no canon that
either Snape or anyone at HQ was able to do that. They wouldn't have had to
leave someone behind with a message if they could have contacted him
directly. Wizards, as JKR informs us on her website, can make themselves
unplottable if they don't want to be found. 

As the third most wanted wizard in the WW after Sirius and Voldemort
himself, Dumbledore has reason to make himself scarce. Voldemort knows 
this, he knows when the attack is going to be, and since he's probably trying
to keep track of Dumbledore himself he can easily pick a time when he thinks 
Dumbledore will be absent, particulary if he's getting information
from within the Order about when he's expected to be there.

Pippin