Does LV know it was Snape who sent the Order to the MoM? (Was: Snape the Cow

[mad_maxime]

No: HPFGUIDX 92813

Carol, while I can certainly see the logic of your argument and can
concede that it might well be true, there are just too many unknowns
here for me to fully agree. 

Carol wrote:
> <snip> Dumbledore wasn't at Hogwarts and couldn't have known that
> Harry was heading for the MoM unless someone told him, and who else
> could it be besides Snape? <snip>

Max:

How does anyone know Dumbledore wasn't at Hogwarts?  The fact is, we
have no idea where Dumbledore was hiding.  Hogwarts is a strange and
mysterious place.  Who's to say that Dumbledore wasn't able to monitor
the goings on at Hogwarts quite closely, coming and going incognito
(in animagus form for instance).

As for him knowing where Harry was headed, this series is full of
seemingly impossible instances of Dumbledore knowing Harry's exact
whereabouts or having knowledge of Harry's current situation in a way
that makes him seem practically omniscient .  How does he do it?  We
do not know, although there have been many theories - spies, a network
of portraits, some type of magical apparatus that connects him to
Harry, he *is*, in fact, omniscient - lol, etc., etc.

For all we know, Dumbledore could have set up some sort of alarm
system so that he would be alerted if Harry were ever to leave the
Hogwarts Grounds.  You must admit, a group of students flying off on
the backs of seven Thestrals would be pretty hard to miss if one was
alert to the situation.

> Max responded:
> <snip>OotP (p.830-831 US Edition): "All agreed to go to your
> [Harry's] aid at once.  Professor Snape requested that Sirius remain
> behind, as he needed someone at headquarters to tell me [Dumbledore]
> what had happened, for I was due there at any moment. . . But Sirius
> did not wish to remain behind while the others went to search for 
> you. He delegated to Kreacher the task of telling me what happened."

> Carol again:
> Dumbledore is "due there at any moment" because Snape contacted him
> before he contacted the Order. How else would DD have known to go to
> Grimmauld Place and how else would Snape know he was going? But my
> point is that LV and Malfoy *knew* that DD was not at Hogwarts and
> therefore could not have known about Harry going to the MoM if Snape
> hadn't contacted either him or the Order or both. There was no one
> else at Hogwarts who could have done it.<snip>
 
Max:

Dumbledore could be due at Grimmauld Place "any moment" for a number
of reasons, and Snape contacting him before contacting the Order is
only one of them. Dumbledore could have contacted the Order himself
when he realized, through his own means, what Harry might be up to.
Or, no one had been able to make recent contact with Dumbledore, but
they were expecting him anyway because of a pre-designated agreement
that was set up prior to Harry's situation (which is where I was
coming from when I posted previously that Kreacher was the one to
inform Dumbledore).

Since I don't believe that we as the readers can be *certain* of DD's
whereabouts or that DD doesn't have his own means of tracking Harry, I
don't believe that Voldemort or Malfoy can be *certain* either.  They
may have suspicions, certainly.  But Snape could easily come up with
credible evidence that Dumbledore was capable of monitoring the
situation without his help, and that D was the one to alert the Order
not he. And Dumbledore's ability to extract the truth from Kreacher
regarding the plan to trick Harry should only bolster Snape's case. 
Voldemort and Malfoy would have no idea, after all, when Dumbledore's
conversation with Kreacher occurred - ie. before the Order left for
the DoM or after.

The one point I fully agree with you on is that Kreacher is now a big
liability.  What does he know. . . and what would he be able to share
now that Sirius is gone?  I think we can all agree that if Sirius were
still alive, Kreacher would never be able to share any information
that might implicate Snape double crossing Voldemort.  The question
is, will he be able to do so now?  Does he even know that Snape is
*really* on the Order's side (do *we* even know that - lol), or that
Snape was the one to alert the Order?  We only know Sirius ordered him
to inform Dumbledore of their plans.  Kreacher might have no idea who
alerted the Order.

My guess is that Dumbledore must be taking very careful measures in
Book 6 to make sure Kreacher is not able to leave Grimmauld Place
again.  Perhaps they can obliviate some of his memories as well?

Carol wrote:
<snip>
> It's only when LV senses that the prophecy has been broken that he
> risks everything to apparate into the atrium of the MoM, where he's
> forced to fight the newly arrived Dumbledore. Bellatrix will tell 
> him what happened in the battle, but LV (with her help) will have to
> figure out how the Order and Dumbledore knew to go there. Malfoy, in
> prison, already knows the events in the MoM, but he, too, will be
> thinking about the Order and Dumbledore. And IMO, they will both
> arrive at the same conclusion. Only one person could have known that
> they were trying to steal the prophecy AND that Harry had gone to 
> save Sirius.
<snip>   

Max:

And this is the main point we differ on.  The entire Order knows that
Voldemort is trying to steal the prophecy.  And, imo, V and/or Malfoy
have no way of knowing what Dumbledore is capable of finding out on
his own, or what other 'spies' or Order members might have been
present at Hogwarts when Harry decided to take flight.  Why does Snape
have to be the *only* one who could have known anything?

I think that Voldemort and Malfoy might very well have doubts about
Snape's loyalties after the events at the DoM, but I think there is a
large enough error for uncertainty here that he should be able to put
any possible suspicions at ease.