Dumbledore's role in Sirius' death was Re: ESE!Snape (Was loads of other stuff)

[kiricat2001]

No: HPFGUIDX 98794

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> 
wrote:
> --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" 
> <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:
> 
> > Neri:
> > Yep, I completely agree with Alla here. Keeping Sirius in 12GP 
> was  one of several glaring mistakes that DD did in OotP. To 
> DD's credit,  this is a classic strategic mistake that many 
> commanders fail to  avoid: they stick their troops into defensive 
> positions that are  theoretically safer, but also prevent them from 
> doing anything. This  invariably leads to deteriorating troop moral 
> that often offsets the  defensive advantages.<
> 
> Pippin:
> Hmmm...but Dumbledore's troops aren't regulars, are they? My 
> impression was that nothing was keeping Sirius at 12GP but 
> Dumbledore's advice and his own conviction that it was where 
> he belonged. There was nothing to keep him from returning to 
> his tropical refuge except that Harry might need him on short 
> notice.

Marianne here:

Exactly right. I'm sure Sirius was not kept at Grimmauld Place as a 
prisoner. He had the freedeom to simply walk out of everyone's life 
and go bask on a beach somewhere.  I think Dumbledore knew perfectly 
well Sirius wouldn't do that because he knew that Sirius would see 
that as an abandonment of Harry and no power on earth would make him 
do that.  Dumbledore's mistake is that, while he left the choice in 
Sirius' hands on what to do ("Should I stay or should I go?"  for all 
you Clash fans out there) as the leader and assigner of tasks in this 
irregular corps, he more or less said to a "brave, clever and 
energetic man" (DD's words, not mine) "Stay put. Stay hidden. There's 
nothing I as your leader can think of for you to do that plays into 
those strengths. So content yourself with keeping the place free of 
dust."

Yes, I know.  Sirius is a member of the corps and, if nothing better 
as an assignment comes along, then, sure he should be content with 
keeping the Order's headquarters clean.  But, after that one outing 
to see Harry off, Sirius did stay put.  He did obey DD's orders to 
keep hidden.  For 9 months.  And, in all that time, we have no canon 
evidence that there was any task given to him that might exercise his 
strengths. Part of being a good leader in any situation is using the 
strengths of the people who follow you. You have to find ways to 
integrate what people are good at into the whole strategy of what you 
are trying to accomplish. In Sirius' case, Dumbledore failed 
miserably.

For that matter, he erred with Snape and Harry, too. Harry is 
different in that he's still a child and DD's reluctance to tell 
Harry too much too soon is understandable. But, Dumbledore also 
misjudged how Snape would react to dealing with Harry one-on-one, 
with the specter of James hanging over both of them.  DD did no 
favors for Snape, either.

 
> Pippin:
on Nagini: 
> As a matter of fact we don't know how she got in or out of the 
> MoM. Maybe Malfoy transfigured possessed!Nagini into a grass 
> snake, put her in his pocket, flooed to the Ministry, and when the 
> coast was clear, transfigured her back again. Any other ideas?


Marianne: 
I think this is just another of those things that have no 
explanation.  JKR needed Nagini to be in the Ministry, and, without 
further ado, she was.

Pippin:
> At any rate, if the DE's can hide themselves from human spies, 
> surely they can hide from doggie ones, especially since they 
> know that one of Dumbledore's spies can be a dog. And hanging 
> around the MoM would scarcely be a good idea for the most 
> wanted wizard on the planet.

Marianne:

Well, Voldemort didn't seem shy about revealing himself.  Granted his 
bumbling henchmen were botching the attempt to lay their hands on the 
Prophecy, but old Vmort didn't hesitate to appear when he thought he 
was needed.  For that matter, since the Order had an Invisibility 
cloak (or two), why couldn't a wanted wizard remain hidden beneath it?

  
> Neri:
> > So the DEs knew about his cover as Padfoot. So what? They 
> also most likely knew (or could have made a reasonable guess) 
> that Arthur and  Lupin and Moody are working for DD, and this 
> had not prevented DD  from using either three. <
> 
> Pippin:
> None of them are wanted men. Arthur is protected by his 
> popularity (see CoS) and Moody by his reputation --Voldemort 
> could hardly expect to take him without a fight.

Marianne:
I'm not sure what being a wanted man has to do with anything. Moody 
was taken by Crouch Jr. in GoF, so surely the DEs are not quaking in 
their boots about getting their hands on him.  And I think Neri's 
point still stands.  If Sirius can't go out because the DEs might see 
a big black dog hanging about, surely Moody and Lupin are in danger 
whenever they may be seen because the DEs know from the previous war 
what side they were on.  If I was Vmort, one of my orders to my loyal 
henchmen would be to murder any person they came across who had been 
a member of the original Order. 

 Pippin:
> Most wizards are scared to death of werewolves even in human 
> form; you'll notice no one took on Lupin at the Ministry. But all
> that the DE's needed to do to finish or capture Sirius was to call 
> the Dementors on him. All perfectly legal, just helping the 
> ministry like good wizarding citizens should.


Marianne:
How do Dementors show up? Can they apparate?  If Lucius Malfoy saw a 
big black dog lurking in an alley, can he simply snap his fingers and 
have a Dementor or two at hand instantaneously? And, if these 
Dementors do appear immediately, what's to prevent Sirius from 
apparating away from them?  

Pippin: 
> As for deteriorating morale, do you really think that's the reason 
> Sirius died? Suppose that GoF!Sirius, as calm and sane as 
> Sirius ever gets, had learned that Harry had been lured into a 
> trap and a rescue party was needed. Do you think he wouldn't 
> have done exactly what he did in OOP? 

Marianne:

Oh, I think he'd have done that in any case. I don't think Sirius 
dashing off to the Ministry had anything to do with what JKR did with 
the whole situation in which she put Sirius in OoP. I wonder what she 
was thinking. Was the whole point to show that Sirius did indeed try 
to be a good, if cranky, soldier by staying put for all of those 
months, only to be drawn out of the safety of Headquarters because of 
Harry being in danger?  If that's the case, I think she erred.  I 
think nothing short of full body binds or being chained to the walls 
or rendered unconscious would have kept Sirius from going to Harry's 
aid.

Part of the problem I've had with JKR's whole treatment of Sirius in 
OoP is that, in his case, magic seems to provide no assistance.  He 
can't go out of the house because he's a wanted man and now the DEs 
know about Padfoot.  Like there are armies of DEs on the hunt for big 
black dogs. There's a DE on every street corner just waiting to catch 
a glimpse of Padfoot.  Okay, so Padfoot can't be used. 

But neither, apparently, can any other magic. Invisibility cloaks 
can't be used. Polyjuice potions can't be used. Disillusionment 
charms can't be used.  Sirius can't even apparate to the Cote d'Azur 
for a day, just to get out of that dreadful house. No, sorry. Doesn't 
fit into the story.  He must remain incarcerated in Grimmauld Place, 
being trapped and surly and useless.  Until, of course, he dashes off 
to the MoM to help Harry. It's never made any sense to me.

Marianne