Unreliable narrator - The Snape Timeline

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No: HPFGUIDX 117180


> Steve wrote :
><snipped here and there>
> First, while we are tracking Harry movements and know what is going
> on, Snape does not have this knowledge. Once the leaves Umbridge's
> office, all he knows is that Harry has been breaking school rules
> again, gotten caught, and Harry seems to be under the unlikely belief
> that Voldemort has Sirius in the Ministry of Magic. Something that
> would be extremely difficult for anyone to believe.
> 
> But just in case, Snape contacts Grimmauld Place and discovers Sirius
> is safe and sound, in his mind, case closed. 
>

Neri:
So now Snape knows that Harry had a false vision from Voldemort. As a
secret agent, shouldn't he wonder why is Voldemort sending Harry a
false vision that will make him want to get to the DoM? And if
Voldemort is trying to lure Harry to the DoM, might he also try
supplying Harry with the means to get there? And might Umbridge be an
agent of Voldemort, and do this for him? Wouldn't these suspicions
merit, just to be on the safe side, finding out where is Harry,
alerting HQ to the developing situation, and increasing the alertness
of the guard in the DoM? We are talking about a war, after all, There
have been several attacks already, and secret agents are paid to be
distrustful and guarded, even slightly paranoid.

> Steve :
> So what does Snape do? He goes to his office, makes a nice cup of tea,
> and sits back sipping it, savoring all the deliciously nasty things
> Umbridge is likely to do to Harry and friends, all the while thinking
> that the little brat deserves it for all the rules he breaks. About
> time some one took him to task for this.
> 

Neri:
Where I served, an officer acting like this in such a situation would
have been demoted to privet on the spot. 

> Steve :
> Umbridge has Harry, Sirius is safe, certainly no need for panic and
> indeed not even any real need to be concerned. Although, I'm sure
> Snape is unaware of the depths to which Umbridge would stoop.

Neri:
The same Umbridge who had, just yesterday, commanded Ministry Aurors
to attack and remove two Order members (Hagrid and McGonagall) from
Hogwarts? No, how could the naïve, inexperienced Snape ever imagine
the depths that this Umbridge would stoop to? He apparently needs a
refreshment course with Moody. How about writing "Constant Vigilance!"
10,000 times?
 
> Steve : 
 An hour
> to a couple hours go by, and Snape finds out that Umbridge has taken
> Harry and Hermione into the forest, and that some time after that, Ron
> and Co manager to escape from Draco, and gone into (most likely) the
> forest after them. I suspect he finds this out all at once after the
> fact. Draco probably came running to Snape so he could whine and cry
> on his shoulder. (Once he recovered from the Curse of the Bat Bogies
> that is.)
> 
> Certainly, at time for concern, but still no reason to panic. Harry
> and Hermione are afteral in the company of an armed adult witch. The
> situation could be unpleasant, but mostly for Harry at the hands of
> Umbridge, so again, no reason for Snape to panic. Nothing to do but
> wait for them to return, and fantasize about how many detentions Harry
> will get for this little mess, or hopefully, expelled.

Neri:
So the boy who was very nearly assassinated by dementors just prior to
this school year, and was consequently under heavy Order guard since
then, now has been two hours in the Forbidden Forest with a suspicious
Ministry worker who is a good friend of Lucius Malfoy and has the
authority to order dementors. And several other kids are in the
forest, with her or perhaps alone (Snape doesn't know which). And by
now it is already dark time. And Snape is the only Order member at
Hogwarts and HQ still know nothing about the new situation because he
didn't bother updating them. But no cause for alarm, surely.     

> Steve :
> Now another two hours goes by, and Snape is probably becoming
> seriously concerned, but Umbridge is with them in the forest, and even
> she wouldn't be stupid enough to wander too deeply into danger.
> (Little does he know.) Eventually, he starts to think that perhaps
> Harry found a way to get to London. But how? There are not likely to
> be any Floo powered fires in the forest. He can't apparate. They might
> have sneaked back to the school and taken a couple of brooms from the
> Quidditch Broom Cupboard. But even at 100mph, assuming they could
> withstand the cold for that long, it would take them over four hours
> to get to London by broom. 

Neri:
They could have reached Hogsmead in 20 minutes, use someone's
fireplace and be at the DoM three hours ago.

> Steve :
> Now it's getting in the vicinity of midnight, plus or minus, and Snape
> decides to tell the Order that Harry may still be attempting to get to
> London. Again, cause for concern, but not necessarily panic. It's a
> long trip from Hogwarts to London. At this time maybe Snape searches
> the forest, maybe he didn't, doesn't matter because it doesn't affect
> the timeline; that's been transfered to the Order. 
> 
> The Order thinks on the possibilities for a while, and decides that
> perhaps, it might be best to check things out. 

Neri:
OotP, Ch. 37:
"Alastor Moody, Nymphadora Tonks, Kingsley Shacklebolt and Remus Lupin
were at Headquarters when he made contact. All agreed to go to your
aid at once."

> Steve :
> Sounds simple, but
> under normal circumstances there should be a night guard at the
> Ministry, and they need a good cover story for why a half a dozen of
> them are barging in there in the middle of the night. 

Neri:
During the previous months two Order guards in the DoM (Podmore and
Arthur) were attacked on their post. One of them was imprioed and
ended up in Azkaban and the other nearly died. If the current guard
doesn't have an immediate way of communication with HQ, then DD should
be demoted to privet together with Snape. The Order members could
simply contact the guard and ask him to check things out, or try to
contact him and find that he doesn't answer. Had Snape contacted HQ an
hour or two before, just out of simple caution, the paranoid Moody
would surely have checked on the guard, and the whole battle would
have been prevented.

If there wasn't an Order guard at the DoM that night, then Shacklebolt
as a senior Auror certainly had the authority to check on the
situation of the Ministry guards. 

> Steve :
> It's important to put yourself outside the situation. We, as readers,
> have great knowledge of what is actualy going on, but Snape and the
> Order know nothing other than Umbridge took Harry and Hermione into
> the forest on some unlikely and ill-conceived mission; 

Neri:

Snape also knows that:

1. Harry was under a mind attack by Voldemort during daytime (not
during his dreams). 

2. Harry is in danger of being possessed by Voldemort.

3. Harry was attacked by dementors several months ago when the Order
guard who was supposed to keep an eye on him deserted his post.

4. Harry saw Voldemort holding Sirius in the DoM, but Sirius is safe
in 12GP. 

5. Harry is troubled about this vision enough to take the risk of
breaking into Umbridge's office.

6. There is something in the DoM that Voldemort wants very badly (we
don't know if Snape also knows that Harry is the other person who can
retrieve this thing, but it's probable. Snape was unnerved and very
angry during the Occlumency lessons when Harry discovered about the
DoM and when he passed through the door).

7. Two Order guards were already attacked during the last year when
Voldemort's agents tried to infiltrate into the DoM. One of these
attacks happened when Harry had a vision from Voldemort's mind. 

8. Snape is the only Order member left at Hogwarts at the moment. The
two other Order members were attacked and removed from Hogwarts by
Umbridge just the day before. At no time during the last year were the
Order's defenses at Hogwarts so thin, and Voldemort probably knows
about it (Draco had a day to send an owl to his father, even if his
father doesn't know this already from Fudge or Umbridge). DD is
apparently not available. If there was a convenient time during this
whole year for Voldemort to act at Hogwarts, it is NOW.

Even if Secret Agent Snape failed to see where some of these things
point to, elementary caution should have prompted him, at the very
least, to find out what Umbridge did with Harry, to update HQ about
the situation, and to ask them to check on the guard in the DoM. Not
doing any of these for several hours is, dare I say it, slightly
irresponsible.

Neri