Unreliable narrator - The Snape Timeline

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 117198


--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:
>
> ...edited...
> 
> Neri:
> 
> Snape also knows that:
> 
> 1. Harry was under a mind attack by Voldemort during daytime (not
> during his dreams). 
> 

BBoyminn: 
No Harry's not, or at least Snape has no way of knowing that. All
Snape has is a vague message from Harry that /he's got Padfoot that
the place where it's hidden/; no more, no less. Well, that and the
fact that Umbridge caught Harry breaking into her office. 

WE THE READERS have more information, and some of us with our superior
knowledge knew something /dodgy/ was up, but many of us didn't even
figure it out until after the fact.

Snape doesn't know how or why Harry thinks /he's got Padfoot that the
place where it's hidden/. And any reasonable analysis of the
possibility would reach the same conclusion as Hermione, that it was
extremely unlikely. Harry is where he should be, Sirius is where he
should be, given the knowledge that is available, certainly there is
cause for concern, but there is hardly enough evidence for serious
concern, and certainly not enough for panic.


> 2. Harry is in danger of being possessed by Voldemort.
> 

Bboyminn:
Again, that's not a known fact. Dumbledore and the Order which
includes Snape /suspect/ that Voldemort might use the scar link to spy
on Harry, or possibly try and influence him. But that is all far short
of /possession/.

This idea that Voldemort can /possess/ Harry via the scar link, is an
overblown idea perpetuated by rabid fans (much like myself). The scar
link gives Voldemort and Harry an strong intuitive sense of each
others feelings. When the link is very open and receptive, they have a
more empathic sense of each others feelings. When they, especially
Harry, are asleep and in a vulnerable mental state, the strongest
thoughts and feelings of one can manifest themselves as dreams in the
other. But that's about the extent of what we have seen so far. People
using the word 'possession' are far overstating the facts.

Example: When Harry is about to Portkey to 12 Grimmauld Place, and he
and Dumbledore look into each other's eyes. Harry feel a sense of a
snake rising up inside himself, and feels the desire to strike out at
Dumbledore.

Why? Just as Voldemort obssessions are transferred to Harry as
thoughts, so to in the moment are Harry's thoughts and feelings
transferred back to Voldemort. But I find it extremely unlikely that
Voldemort is seen through Harry's eyes. More likely, Harry has a
strong emotional response to finally looking into Dumbledore's eyes,
that puts Dumbledore in the forefront of Harry's thoughts and emotions. 

On Voldemort's end, he simply thinks of and perhaps has a mental image
of Dumbledore in his mind. That triggers strong anti-Dumbledore
emotions in Voldemort which in turn are transmitted back to Harry.
Harry senses Voldemort hatred of and desire to kill Dumbledore. 

Voldemort isn't possessing Harry, he is simply projecting his
hatefilled feeling toward Dumbledore back to Harry, and in the moment
probably doing so unintensionally.

It is highly unlikely that either of them at that point understand why
they felt what they did at that particular moment. I suspect that only
upon later reflection does Voldemort figure out how tight the
connection between him and Harry is.


> 3. Harry was attacked by dementors several months ago when the Order
> guard who was supposed to keep an eye on him deserted his post.
> 

bboyminn:
And at the moment, Harry is not under attack, he is in the castle in
the custody of a teacher, as well as in the presents of his friends
and several other students, the Order has been contacted, and Sirius
is safe. Everyone is where they are suppose to be and all is in order.
Umbridge catching and punishing, and possibly expelling Harry, is just
a nice little bonus to Snape. 

In addition, Snape has absolutely no way of making a connection
between the earlier Dementor attack and Umbridge. At the moment,
Umbridge, while a nasty piece of work, is still the headmaster of the
school, and has ever right to take into custody and punish a student,
Harry, for breaking into her office.


> 4. Harry saw Voldemort holding Sirius in the DoM, but Sirius is safe
> in 12GP. 
> 

bboyminn:
Again, Snape doesn't know that, WE, the READERS, know that, but Snape
doesn't. All Snape knows is that Harry thinks /he's got Padfoot that
the place where it's hidden/. Snape contacted the Order, and verified
that Sirius was safe and sound at home.


> 5. Harry is troubled about this vision enough to take the risk of
> breaking into Umbridge's office.
> 

bboyminn:
Remember this is Snape we are talking about. To him Potter has no
reservations about breaking the rules, wander out to or into places he
 shouldn't be. He's done this all before. Snape knows Harry broke into
the office, but he has little or no information as to why Harry did
this or what his objective was in doing so.

Harry is troubled about Sirius, but Snape has already confirmed that
Sirius is at home; case closed. Nothing left but the joy of Harry
having to sit another one of Umbridge's detentions.



> 6. There is something in the DoM that Voldemort wants very badly ...
> 

bboyminn:
That is definitely true. But how does it come into play? Certainly, it
cause for concern. But Harry is in the castle in the company of a
large assortment of people. Doesn't really matter in that specific
moment where Voldemort is or what he is doing, as long as he's not at
Hogwarts. 

Remember, Snape has a much larger role to play in this war. It would
be extremely unwise for him to blow is cover as a spy simply because
Harry was, as he so often is, in trouble again. Snape needs to keep
his eye on the big picture and consider the greater good (or bad,
depending on your opinion) he can do.


> 7. Two Order guards were already attacked during the last year when
> Voldemort's agents tried to infiltrate into the DoM. One of these
> attacks happened when Harry had a vision from Voldemort's mind. 
> 

bboyminn:
Actually, three people were attack; two Order members and one Ministry
employee. 

Podmore was put under the Imperius Curse which is a very subtle curse
that's not immediately detectable. People under the curse go about
their daily lives. Podmore could have been curse several days before
in the middle of a common work day. It was only on that particular
night that the influence of the curse forced him to act. 

Bode, who actually know how to get through the doors, was also under
the Imperius Curse, which could have been cast at any time of the day
or night, and at any time prior to his actions. The time lapse in
these cases between cause and effect can be great or at least
significant. That time delay sort of minimizes any sense of urgency.

The third was when Voldemort himself entered the Ministry at night
while possessing the snake which attacked Arthur Weasley. Harry did
dream about this, but he dreamed about it because of Voldemort's
heightened emotional state and Harry's heighted state of
vulnerability. This was not a conscious effort by Voldemort. 

It is at this time that people (Dumbledore, etc...) become concerned
that the link between Harry and Voldemort is becoming too strong, and
now that Voldemort is aware of it, he may try to exploit it. But how
he might exploit it is subject to many possibilities and much speculation.


> 8. Snape is the only Order member left at Hogwarts at the moment. 
> The two other Order members were attacked and removed from Hogwarts 
> by Umbridge just the day before. ...edited..
> 

bboyminn:
Snipped the part where you speculate that people at the school might
have been keeping Voldemort informed about the schools growing
vulnerability, and I suspect that's true. If nothing else, then
Draco's letters home. But, I don't think that is so relevant.

Once Voldemort becomes aware of the link, he concentrates on
exploiting it. I think he is constantly, day and night, searching his
own awareness for a vulnerability is Harry's state of mind. When he
senses Harry exhausted, vulnerable, and sleeping, he begins to project
the scenerio he wants Harry to believe. I don't think Voldemort
preferred the event to occur at 5:00pm, but that's when he felt
Harry's vulnerability, and so he seized the opportunity to exploit it. 

I'm sure by that time, he was growing very frustrated because he
expected Harry to go after the Prophecy much sooner. Unfortunately, he
made the mistake of assuming that Harry knew about the Prophecy, both
what it concerned, and now with Voldemort's help, where it was. Again,
I think Voldemort acted at that time simply because he felt the
vulnerability and he exploited it while it was there. I'm sure he
would have preferred for the opportunity to come in the middle of the
night, but you take it where you get it.



> Neri concludes:
>
> Even if Secret Agent Snape failed to see where some of these things
> point to, elementary caution should have prompted him, at the very
> least, to find out what Umbridge did with Harry, to update HQ about
> the situation, and to ask them to check on the guard in the DoM. Not
> doing any of these for several hours is, dare I say it, slightly
> irresponsible.
> 
> Neri

bboyminn: 

Snape is limited in how and to what degree he can interfer with
Umbridge's affairs. Also, by this time, I don't think there was a
guard at the Dept of Mysteries from the Order. The only guard there
would have been the Security Guard, and I can't imagine Snape /calling
him up/ and asking if he's happened to see Harry Potter lurking about.
It's a nice thought, but it lacks a certain degree of real-life
practicality. You can say he should have called but exactly how was
that cheery conversation suppose to go without raising a lot of suspicion?

Even if Shacklebolt goes to check, what's he suppose to say? The
Ministry is already extremely watchfull for any Ministry employees who
might be up to no good. So, exactly how as Shacklebolt suppose to
explain his activity?

Conclusion:

Harry is in the castle in the company of several people including a
Ministry Official and the Headmistress.

Sirius is safe and toasty warm at home with several of his friends and
members of the Order.

>From Snape's limited knowledge, what really is there to be worried about?

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Steve/bboyminn (was bboy_mn)