The Second Prophecy

[Barry Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 117972

It's a neat twist that it's only after we've heard the second prophecy 
that we learn that there was a first -  even then it's another couple 
of books before we find out how significant the first was in the life 
and times of H. Potter Esq.

I think there is another  twist too:  look at the second one we see (in 
OoP), it's delphic, obscurely couched, so much so that we're none too 
certain of it's full meaning. By comparison the second (the first we 
hear) seems as clear as crystal;  it's so obvious, especially given the 
action that surrounds it.

But what if it's not as obvious as it looks; what if it's constructed 
in the same the-interpretation-is-up-to-you mode as the first?
Traditionally, Seers are supposed to be opaque; no oracle worth their 
salt would dream of making clear and unambiguous predictions; it's 
against all the tenets of the Affiliated Prophets, Soothsayers and 
Prognosticators Cabbalistic Co-operative (Working Practices 
Sub-Committee). Deary me, no. Can't make it easy for Joe Public, 
they're supposed to have to think about it, be misled and maybe get it 
right at the last minute.

Now there'll be those sighing at  this point. "Oh, God;  he's at it  
again," they'll say. Yep. True. It's what Kneasy is for. I'm well aware 
that nothing I can say will ever sway this group, those who like things 
cut and dried, so they may as well click on to the next post now. But 
for those with an interest in intrigue, plotting and possible JKR 
sneakiness, bear with me.

One thing worth noticing is how the entire passage where Harry relates 
Sybill's burblings to DD is constructed. He reports the prophecy,  
carefully putting no name to "the servant of Voldemort". Then 
immediately he starts on about saving Peter's life and that it'll be 
his fault if Voldy comes back. (Harry believes the prophecy is about 
Peter.) DD is more laid back about the whole thing and goes so  far as 
to state - "...predicting the future is a very difficult business 
indeed.... Professor Trelawney, bless her, is living proof of that."

The way it's all presented on the page, almost without pause eliding 
from the servant of Voldy in the prophecy to saving Pettigrews life 
(not necessarily the same thing at all) could be a very nice piece of 
mis-direction, well worthy of an admitted fan of Agatha Christie.

DD gives a sort of gloss to the whole episode, an "it'll all come out 
in the wash" pragmatism. Hmm. MAGIC DISHWASHER, I shouldn't wonder. He 
does give some credence to Harry's concerns, even though earlier he has 
stated that Sirius has not acted like an innocent man.

There's no doubt that  Sirius has gained the sympathy of a lot of the 
readers simply by dying. Understandable, I suppose, don't kick a man 
when he's down, that sort of thing. Though why not, if he deserves a 
kicking? He's much nearer your boots for a start.  Browse through the 
back posts (pre-OoP) and more fans were critical, if not downright 
suspicious. As an example of the sort of thing I'm on about, read Pip's 
"The Spying Game and the Shrieking Shack" - post  39662,  which covers 
the whole SS fiasco in great detail, considers a PossiblyEvil!Black; 
that *both* of them could be Voldy agents and notes that although DD 
gives loads of reasons why Fudge would never believe Black to be 
innocent, he never even tries to present any of the evidence or to 
convince him of the fact.
A real fighter for truth and justice, our Albus.

On to the prophecy itself.

"The Dark Lord lies alone and friendless, abandoned by his followers. 
His servant has been chained these twelve years. Tonight, before 
midnight, the servant will break free and set out to rejoin his master. 
the Dark Lord will rise again with his servants aid, greater and more 
terrible than ever before. Tonight... before midnight.... the 
servant.... will set out... to rejoin.... his master.... "

Right. The first sentence; any problems? Nor with me.

The "chained these twelve years" - strictly speaking Peter hasn't been 
chained at all; he could have slipped away from the Burrow or Hogwarts 
any time he liked. Unless there's been something going on we don't know 
about, he's been in a sort of voluntary exile, in hiding. (Though I 
might have an idea about that - watch this space. Contradictory? You 
bet. But for the moment I'm arguing a different case.)

Sirius on the other hand, except for some months of going back to 
Nature, being at one with the birds, bees and Acromantula, has been 
banged up in Azkaban, slopping out every morning and giving a very good 
impression of being chained.

"Break free before midnight" Well, Peter fits that - and so does  
Sirius. DD gives Hermione the Timeturner at five minutes to midnight, 
then locks the hospital wing door. They get back at exactly that time, 
after helping Sirius to escape ten minutes previously. How interesting! 
Harry and Hermione strain every  sinew to  get Sirius out of there just 
before the prophecy deadline. Peter on the other hand wanders off into  
the shrubbery well  before midnight and without any reference being 
made to the timing of his escape.

"Set out to rejoin his master" Fine. No problem. Peter yes, Sirius - 
where did he go  when he escaped? Any idea? I wouldn't trust that  
exotic bird too much, especially as it was supposedly to mislead the 
Aurors. But  set out -  that needn't mean 'join immediately'  - a 
journey of a thousand miles (or a thousand days) starts with a single 
step - the setting out.

"...with his servants aid will rise again greater and more terrible 
than before."
Peter - again yes. Sirius - again it's not ruled out.
You don't need to  be at Voldy's elbow to  aid him - witness Barty 
Crouch Jnr. You can aid the cause in all sorts of ways.

Voldy  wants the Prophesy globe; how would an agent help there? By 
claiming sole guardian rights over Harry. By encouraging Harry's 
rashness. By influencing Harry against Snape's Occlumency. Or by being 
deliberately ambiguous (or by being deliberately *not* ambiguous) to 
Kreacher. Or by making sure that you'll be noticed by Malfoy while 
animaging about Kings Cross against the wishes of everybody with an 
ounce of sense. Passing  a message? "Yes, I'm around; yes I'm close to 
Harry." Useful stuff for the Voldy clique.

I think it was very sensible of DD to ensure that Sirius was alone in 
G.P. as infrequently as possible, if at all. And just how often was 
Harry allowed to be alone with Sirius at G.P.?

Pippin is absolutely sure Lupin killed Sirius at the Ministry. So am I, 
but not because Lupin is ESE. Lupin is DD's gofer -  just as he was in 
CoS. It's because Sirius is a danger to Harry and to the Order. DD and  
therefore Lupin know he's better dead, a fond memory can do no harm, a 
disruptive influence on Harry very definitely can - a thought I first 
posted many months ago.

Yes, Peter has killed Cedric, aided Voldy with others, but that was 
after CoS. Whatever he is now, there's only Sirius' word that he was 
the sole guilty party before CoS. And there's been a spate of posts 
recently having another close look at Peter. He's no angel, but  that 
in itself does not guarantee an innocent Sirius.

See? Both Peter and Sirius can be fitted into the first prophecy.
And as a basic rule of thumb - when Jo offers alternatives, go for the 
one that will surprise  Harry and many of the  readers.
After all, what's the point of a story like HP without the BANGS?
Predictability is no fun at all.

Kneasy