DD and the rat: Conspiracy theories compared [LONG]

[carolynwhite2]

No: HPFGUIDX 115794


This post attempts to put the greasy, wine-stained Agent!Peter theory 
through the MAGIC DISHWASHER, using either ESE!Sirius or ESE!Lupin to 
remove limescale and provide added sparkle. If you are happiest 
taking the events in the Potterverse at face value, and think 
conspiracy theorists need their heads examined, you are undoubtedly 
right, and it's probably best to move on hastily. You can always have 
the last laugh – and do the washing-up by hand.

Meanwhile, those of a more sinister disposition might like to put 
their feet up while the machine is running, and mull over past 
conversations, whilst finishing up what's left in the bottles and 
snacking on plates of left-over trifles.

Skip to the end for the conclusions if it gets too tedious.

*******************

.`Enchantingly nasty' said Dumbledore, his eyes twinkling, `I 
particularly enjoyed your description of me as an obsolete dingbat.'
.

As at all the best parties, it is sometimes difficult to remember who 
said what to whom when the booze started to flow and the arguments 
got heated, so the following posts might be a useful recap, or 
alternatively, ammunition for further exchanges:

MD: 39662 [Spying Game I; Bluesqueak]; 39854 [MD recap; Grey Wolf]; 
40044 [Spying Game II; Bluesqueak]; 81010 [MD, post-OOP update; 
Bluesqueak]; 81067 [Jen Reese response], 81074 [Kneasy response]; 
81097 [Bluesqueak response]; 81104 [postscript from Melody].

ESE!Lupin: 39362 [Pippin's original post]; 39368 [Bluesqueak 
response]; 82860 [post-OOP update from Pippin]; 85139 [critique from 
Olivier Fouquet]; 115596 [Recent Pippin contribution to Agent!Peter 
thread].

ESE!Sirius: discussed to some extent in MD and elsewhere; 103685 
[Sirius Revisited] from Kneasy [and subsequent thread] provides an 
entertaining reminder of the main points; see also recent posts 
115689 [Kneasy] and 115682 [Snow].

Agent!Peter: This is a portmanteau term invented to cover the various 
roles the rat might or might not be playing in the series, and 
doesn't relate to any one poster or theory. Generally, in this post I 
am using it to represent what Pettigrew's POV might have been.  There 
are very few posts from this POV on HPfGU [two recent ones in this 
thread were 115779 & 115788], but a presentation by Amy Webb & Sharon 
Brown called `Let's Chat About the Rat' at ConventionAlley this 
August provided an extensive (50-page) run through some of the 
arguments. Unfortunately, AFAIK, the paper is not available 
electronically (although you can buy a copy of the proceedings).

*********************

QUICK SUMMARY OF MD, ESE!LUPIN, ESE!SIRIUS, AGENT!PETER

In the first MD post, Spying Game I [39662], Pip launched her theory 
of Puppetmaster!Dumbledore on a careful analysis of what really 
happened in the Shrieking Shack at the end of POA. To ruthlessly 
summarise a very long and closely-argued post:
-	Dumbledore always knew the MWPP were animagi.
-	When James & Lily were killed, DD was not sure, out of the 
various suspects, who had betrayed them, but subsequently discovers 
that Peter had been made Secret Keeper by Sirius.
-	Dumbledore knows that it is only a matter of time before 
Voldemort will be resurrected, and believes it will be an added 
protection if Voldemort has a servant who has a life-debt to Harry.
-	Snape and Dumbledore work closely together to help Harry save 
Pettigrew's life at the right moment, and allow the rat to return to 
Voldemort.

Although Pettigrew is absolutely central to this plot,  his personal 
motives are not examined in great detail; it is assumed he is 
probably what he appears – a betrayer, a DE who will return to his 
master at the earliest opportunity (mainly because it is the safest 
place for him once his cover is blown). However, in this post, Pip 
also makes clear that a significant questionmark hangs over both 
Sirius' and Remus' actions; she says:

`Dumbledore has *no* idea whether Sirius Black is a Voldemort 
supporter or not. Snape is certain Black is guilty, hates him, and is 
very suspicious of Lupin.'

Earlier, Pippin had already sown the seeds of these doubts with her 
first ESE!Lupin post [39362]. The  main premise of the ESE!Lupin 
argument is that:
-	Lupin is an outcast as a werewolf, unable to earn a living in 
the WW; Voldemort tempts him by offering him a chance to be valued 
for what he is; and/or the possibility of introducing werewolf 
rights; and/or funding for finding a permanent cure for lyncanthropy.
-	At school his greatest fear is being found out. He knows 
Snape is on to him, and when the prank takes place, he is nearly 
undone, except that Dumbledore hushes it up. He hates Snape for 
nearly exposing him, Sirius for causing it to happen and James for 
saving Snape.
-	Subsequently he takes his revenge by betraying James & Lily 
to his new master, Voldemort, by telling V about Peter the SK. 
Voldemort breaks Peter and goes to GH to murder them all. Not only 
aghast at his master's death, like everyone else Lupin thinks Peter 
dies the day after, and that Sirius killed him. Ideally, he wants 
both Peter and Sirius dead, as they are the only people who can 
reveal his betrayal, but he has to bide his time whilst Sirius is in 
Azkaban. 

The doubts about Sirius have been around almost since the beginning 
of the HPfGU list, mainly because even if he isn't ESE, his actions 
are so plainly foolhardy that they almost become ESE by default. The 
case against Sirius opens as follows:

-	He is a clever, hot-headed, arrogant, wealthy trouble-maker 
who thinks he can get away with murder, and at school,  very nearly 
does kill someone.
-	He comes from a family which is heavily into the Dark Arts, 
and has a brother who actually joined the DEs.
-	He persuaded James not to use DD as SK, and worse, came up 
with the plan for switching the SK from himself to Peter. He either 
then betrayed Peter to Voldie, or Peter acted of his own accord, 
either way causing Lily & James' deaths. He subsequently tries to 
summarily execute the only person who could clear his name – and not 
once after GH, but twice (POA).

Finally, there is the alternative view of Pettigrew, Agent!Peter, 
which just as ESE!Lupin and ESE!Sirius argue the reverse of the 
character's as they initially appear in a superficial reading, 
suggests that Peter may have more of a conscience than is popularly 
supposed. He may be doing his best to repay the error that lead to 
James & Lily's deaths – either in connivance with Dumbledore, or as a 
solo initiative. Some key points of this theory are:
-	Dumbledore trusted him enough to allow him to be in the first 
Order of the Phoenix
-	James, Sirius and Lupin treated Peter with contempt at school 
and after; did their behaviour make the worm turn?
-	Why did Peter wait 12 years at the Weasleys, and then 
voluntarily return to Voldemort when he could have easily escaped to 
anywhere in the world and laid low for ever?
-	Why does Dumbledore not inform the Ministry about Pettigrew 
after his escape back to Voldemort?
-	Peter did not intend that Bertha Jorkins should die.
-	Peter argues with Voldemort over his plans. He is the only 
person to try and do this in the whole series so far, apart from DD.
-	He may have enabled Barty Crouch Sr to escape. 
-	He may not have killed Cedric in the graveyard.
-	He gives his right arm to help Voldemort become mortal again. 
Why? Because he knows that is the only way Voldemort can be killed?

All of these theories run together quite effectively, but do have 
crucial differences at various key points, as the  following five 
questions show.

*******
FIVE QUESTIONS

1.	Did Dumbledore know that James, Sirius and Peter were 
animagi, and when did he know?

MD: Yes, emphatically. DD's comment `not least keeping it from me' is 
regarded as simply untrue. He is not only an omniscient headmaster 
who knows everything that is going on at the school, but also a 
specialist in transfiguration. He also turns a blind eye to many 
student activities. MD speculates that Dumbledore made the connection 
between animagus Pettigrew and Scabbers the rat at the same time 
Sirius did – when he saw the picture of the Weasley's on holiday in 
Egypt in the Daily Prophet. He only shared this information with 
Snape, no one else.

ESE!Lupin/ESE!Sirius/Agent!Peter: 
None of the original marauders would volunteer the information unless 
they had to, as it was an illegal activity, and all of them thought 
DD didn't know. Sirius had no choice but to admit it to DD at the end 
of POA. However, Pippin in 115596 says that she does not believe DD 
had any prior knowledge, and would not have been able to extract it 
from Sirius at Azkaban even if he had visited.

Significance:
The form that animagi take is important as an insight into their 
characters, and practically in plot terms as it would have given 
Dumbledore food for thought as to what Sirius or Peter might be 
capable of doing. It would have occurred to him, for instance, that 
Sirius could have escaped more easily from Azkaban as a dog, and 
Peter's particular animagi form might remind him of Ron's pet rat – 
which as far as we know was the only such pet in the school.

********

2.	Was Peter spying for Voldemort before GH? Why would Peter 
betray his friends like this?

MD: Not definitive either way. Dumbledore accepts it could have been 
Peter, but retains a suspicion it could be either Sirius or Lupin 
instead. No insight into why Peter might have done it. Another way of 
looking at it is that Dumbledore thought there were several spies, 
knew Peter was one of them for definite, and on this basis decided to 
pursue his bold plan in POA to return Peter to Voldie full of 
misinformation and in Harry's debt. He would then deal with the other 
possible spies in due course.

ESE!Lupin: No, the spy was Lupin.  Peter is assumed to be loyal.

ESE!Sirius: Depends if you view Sirius as totally evil or just 
stupid. If Sirius was evil, Peter was not spying. If plain stupid, 
either Peter or Lupin could have been the spy.

Agent!Peter: The argument that he was a spy is based on seeing Peter 
as a very weak man who James, Lily, Remus and Sirius treated with 
contempt, leaving him wide open to an approach by Voldemort, and once 
in with Voldemort there was no way out. The alternative reading is 
that he was a clever, inconspicuous but very loyal member of OOP, 
whom DD had identified for a dangerous double-agent role, feeding 
misleading information to Voldie. It depends on who you view as the 
more powerful Legilimens – Peter would have had to have been taught 
to resist either Voldie's or DD's intrusions into his mind to have 
survived in his role for long.

Significance:
Considerable for character readings. If Peter was a long-term spy, it 
begs many questions about what made him do it, and what his `great' 
friends at school, and later in the Order were really like as people. 
If nothing else, it is also a failure of Dumbledore's leadership that 
he didn't prevent it happening, knowing all the players so well, man 
and boy. Did he not see fit to speak to James, Lily or Remus about 
their behaviour? 

If on the other hand, DD didn't just make the best of a bad job by 
sending Peter back to Voldie as he was,  but actually turned Peter or 
trained him for a long-term deep-cover mission, it sheds an entirely 
new light on many of Peter's actions later on, and his integrity as a 
character.

******

3.	Why was the SK switch made? Who knew about the SK switch? Why 
did James & Lily agree to it?

MD: DD does not believe that Sirius is essentially evil, but he does 
think he is weak. He gives evidence to the MoM that he knew Black was 
SK, but MD asserts that he did not believe this statement himself, 
although he did not know the truth at the time of GH, only 
subsequently after getting information about the mutterings at 
Azkaban. 

ESE!Lupin: James and Sirius suspected Lupin, they thought if they 
pretended Sirius was SK, Lupin might take the info back to Voldie, 
leaving Peter safe. However, Lily, being soft-hearted, wanted to show 
Lupin she trusted him despite being a werewolf, and told Lupin about 
the switch to Peter. Lupin then betrayed this info to Voldie. James 
did not go along with DD's advice because he suspected it was 
influenced by Snape's  opinion, and he continued to distrust Snape 
even if DD didn't.  Peter, meanwhile, was left with the impression 
that he was betrayed by Sirius.

ESE!Sirius: Sirius proposed the switch either because he was a coward 
and wasn't after all, prepared to die for his friends, or to set 
Peter up for betrayal. 

Agent!Peter: He did not suggest that he was made SK to anyone; he was 
volunteered, and only had a very short time in the role. If he is 
ESE, this information is dynamite, and would blow the role he has 
been so carefully playing for a year if he passes it on. He would 
have to be very sure it would lead to Voldie's permanent triumph 
before risking disclosing it. If he is not ESE, but has been spying 
on a double-agent basis for DD, then he has been put in a dangerously 
high-risk situation, and is afraid he will blow it. If he is neither 
ESE or a double-agent, but just plain frightened, do his equivocal 
feelings about the contempt with which his friends treat him lead him 
to moan miserably to the wrong person and prompt the train of events 
which leads Voldie to him, and the resulting extraction of his 
secret? NB, the Fidelius charm cannot be passed on unless the 
SK `chooses to divulge it', but what does `choose' mean if you are 
being tortured?

Significance?
It seems that Sirius, James and Lily - three very young, frightened 
Order members took the fateful decision on their own and ignored 
their leader's advice. Or had Dumbledore tried to convey some of his 
concerns about Sirius, Pettigrew and Lupin to James, and ended up 
angering James, who, storming out (leaving his Invisibility cloak 
behind), then insisted to his wife that they at least trust his best 
friend? And Dumbledore, believing in `it's our choices', left them to 
it and intervened no further? It's a motif (and arguably a mistake) 
that DD repeats with Harry in OOP. A very high risk strategy and some 
tough love, if that's what it is.

**********

4.	Why did the Pettigrew/Sirius confrontation take place after 
GH, and why did Peter eventually return to Voldemort after a wait of 
12 years?

MD: At the time, in the absence of other information, the 
confrontation could have been a falling out between two traitors; at 
best it was a stupid, rash thing for Sirius to have done. Snape is 
certainly convinced that Black is a traitor – what knowledge drives 
this? Peter is assumed to have no other place to go by POA.

ESE!Lupin: Lupin was present at that encounter, although neither of 
them saw him. He needed to make sure both Peter and Sirius were dead 
so they could not give him away. He threw the curse that blew up the 
street, but failed to get either of them, although he thought he had 
killed Peter. Peter was already in the process of faking his own 
disappearance, being faced with the impossible odds of a furious 
Sirius who he couldn't out-duel.  The MoM squad turned up too quickly 
for Lupin to have another shot at Sirius. Peter no longer has any 
choice but to return to Voldemort – he is hopelessly compromised and 
under threat from the other DEs. Voldemort keeps him alive in order 
to blackmail Lupin to stay in line.

ESE!Sirius: Sirius had to get rid of Peter to avoid his betrayal 
becoming public. He fails after GH, but manages the events in POA to 
discredit any story that Peter is trying to tell, and nearly manages 
to kill him. Although Peter escapes, the dispute between them 
effectively becomes unfinished business between traitors. If you vote 
for stupid, as opposed to ESE!Sirius, his rashness ensures Pettigrew 
runs to Voldemort.

Agent!Peter: If not ESE, Peter thought Sirius had betrayed him, and 
didn't intend Sirius to catch him. He was competent enough to blow up 
the street and fake his own death simultaneously, as it was essential 
he remained a free agent in order to avenge James & Lily.  If ESE, he 
trapped and framed Sirius as suggested in the books, but it is 
difficult to explain why he then remained in hiding with the 
Weasley's for 12 years. Almost any other continent would be a more 
sensible location, let alone staying in the UK. If he did have the 
black mark, it would alert him to Voldie's return, should it happen. 
After the events in POA, assuming he had stupidly remained in hiding 
in the UK, yet again, it makes no sense, psychologically, to go and 
seek out Voldie as a cloud of noxious dust in Albania.

Significance?
All three main theories pay little attention to Peter as a person. 
They take him at face value, as a weak person placed in a non-
negotiable position. At the same time, they also postulate that he 
may have had the intelligence to be either an effective spy for 
Voldemort, and/or bright enough to have staged a credible 
disappearance. There is something not right here, and it could be 
evidence that Peter is playing a different role – although on his own 
initiative or another's, it is impossible to tell.

***********

5.	Why did Dumbledore leave Sirius in Azkaban and why did 
Dumbledore enable Sirius to be rescued in POA?

MD: DD did not know at the time whether Sirius was guilty or not 
immediately after GH. After the events in POA, DD's thoughts are 
summed up by Pip as `DD will try to make sure you're not wrongly 
executed or re-imprisoned, but that's as far as it goes.' The last 
thing DD wants is Harry put at risk by allowing him to live with 
Sirius. He gets the idiot out of the country PDQ.

ESE!Lupin: The last thing Lupin wants is Sirius out of Azkaban; he 
would make no effort to help clear his name. Lupin had every 
intention of killing them all except Harry in POA, but is prevented 
by Snape's intervention. He has to run off into the Forbidden Forest 
to maintain his cover, and despite setting the Dementors on Sirius is 
unable to influence events further.  He finally sees a chance to 
safely deal with Sirius in OOP, but Peter remains unfinished business.

ESE!Sirius: He has no illusions why he's there; when he's sprung from 
Azkaban, he concentrates all his efforts on discrediting Peter and 
Snape. If not ESE, he is fully aware he is on borrowed time with DD.

Agent!Peter: If not ESE, all he can do is bide his time and wait for 
an opportunity to clear his name. When it becomes clear during the 
Shrieking Shack scene in POA that Sirius is to be freed, this will 
give Peter furiously to think who did betray him – was it Lupin? If 
ESE, as before, there is no logical reason for him to wait for Sirius 
to be freed, or later for him to return to Voldie. He could have done 
that any time immediately after GH.

Significance?
Whichever way you read it, this episode is evidence of Dumbledore's 
ruthless approach. Even though he wasn't sure if Sirius was guilty or 
not, he made no effort to ensure he got a fair trial. He also made no 
effort to convince Fudge of his changed opinion about Sirius at the 
end of POA. It was more important to his other plans that Sirius 
remained a fugitive. 

Dumbledore's statement `you will  be able to save more than one 
innocent life tonight' also sheds new light on Trelawny's ambiguous 
second prediction `Tonight
before midnight.. the servant
 will set 
out
 to rejoin 
his master
' Did Dumbledore really mean Sirius and 
Buckbeak, as a simple reading of the book might suggest, or did he 
mean Buckbuck and Peter, or even Buckbeak and Harry? Or all three? 

********
SO WHAT?

This post is far, far too long, and was longer. Here are some 
conclusions.

1.	How does Agent!Peter theory alter established conspiracy 
theories?

Quite a bit. There is not space here to analyse anything beyond the 
GH/POA episodes relating to Peter, but there is no doubt the plot 
turns around his actions  in each case. If he is treated less as a 
cardboard cut-out baddy, but as an individual tortured with 
indecision and self-doubt, it throws new light on the 
characterisations of protagonists like Dumbledore, Sirius, Lupin, 
James & Lily. [Less so Snape – he remains a constant!]. If he is not 
what he seems at all, it throws the theories wide open.

MD: yet another major headache for DD to second-guess, even if Peter 
is not ESE
ESE!Lupin: A highly intelligent opponent, who's rumbled him and is 
still at large.
ESE!Sirius: Another devastating piece of information for Harry to 
absorb.


2.	Does Agent!Peter theory make conspiracy theories more 
convincing?

Yes, immeasurably, but they'll need fine-tuning to accommodate him. 
At the heart of every spy story is a human story – why they did what 
they did, if they did. It's highly personal, up front and painful. 
That seems to be the kind of story that JKR is telling, if she is not 
going for the epic war story, littered with bodies.

3.	Does Agent!Peter theory give us any new insights into what 
might happen in Books 6 & 7?

Essentially, Agent!Peter theory agrees that Peter's role is far from 
over, but over and beyond the involuntary life-debt aspect referred 
to in canon, he may (or may not) try to influence future events to 
save himself, or atone for what he has done (or is accused of) – 
shades of `it's a far, far finer thing I do' etc etc. Extending the 
three conspiracy theories compared in this post, here's some ideas of 
what this might amount to.

MD: [See 81104] Dumbledore's current agenda is to buy time for as 
long as possible. His analysis must be that Peter will not be 
suddenly treated with respect but continuing contempt by Voldie, and 
all the other DE's. After the re-bodying, Peter is of no real use to 
them, although they are probably wary of his new silver hand. DD's 
calculation could be (a) Peter went to V voluntarily, but the 
attraction is waning – therefore, what would tempt him back ? or (b) 
Peter is a brave double agent, what is the most useful way he could 
support him in the circs?

I would suggest (a) DD puts Ron at risk – the one person who 
Peter/Scabbers had real affection from in his life, that he would 
remember (he bit Goyle Jr for him).  Ron is used as a decoy to 
extract some information from Peter which can be used to prevent a 
dastardly plot of Voldemort's. As counterpoint, V may have realised 
that Peter has special knowledge of the Weasley's and sent him on a 
mission to either harm one of them, or extract information for V. 

This sub-plot might end in a moment of conscience for Peter – whom 
does he betray?  In version (b), Ron is again used as the conduit for 
passing information, but this time because he is the person Peter 
most trusts. It comes to a sticky end when Peter is found out, and by 
this point Ron has grown up a lot and it hits him hard what happens 
to friendship in the murky halfworld of spooks and spying. And it 
generates more extensive discussion by the fanbase of whether DD's 
world is worth fighting for [see 81067].

ESE!Lupin: Peter sets himself an agenda to be Lupin's nemesis, either 
to personally avenge James & Lily, who trusted him, or to simply 
clear his name. Peter manages to achieve this at some crucial point 
where Lupin is on the point of delivering Harry to Voldemort yet 
again, but Peter also dies as a result. He gets another posthumous 
Order of Merlin to put beside the other one on his mother's 
mantlepiece.

ESE!Sirius: Since Sirius is now, to all intents and purposes, dead, 
we will be talking back history, and it will involve Snape. The only 
thing that broke into Sirius's concentration in the Shrieking Shack 
in POA was Remus remarking that Snape was teaching at Hogwart's. 
There is no question that their enmity is/was deep, real and 
personal, and Peter finds out the reason (or already knows). He also 
thinks Sirius betrayed him by making him SK.  It is information that 
Snape does not want made public (although Dumbledore knows it), but 
eventually Peter is trapped by Snape, and the unpleasant details come 
out, leading to more revision on Harry's part of the characters of 
his godfather, of Snape, and of Peter. Life, he increasingly 
realises, is extremely messy.

I could go on spinning scenarios, but better not


WHAT'S IN A NAME?

Whatever the truth about the rat, JKR is certainly having fun with us 
over his many names (and their very multiplicity is perhaps a warning 
against a simplistic reading of him as a character). 
[Acknowledgements to Master Froggy Encylopedia and Akashic Record for 
some of them]:

Scabbers: from English slang `scab', meaning strike-breaker, a person 
who doesn't show solidarity with work colleagues but sides with the 
management in a dispute? Or `scabby' meaning something unclean, 
covered in sores?

Peter: a reference to the top Apostle, whose belief was designated 
the rock (Lat: petra) on which the Christian faith is built, and 
holder of the keys to heaven – but who also wavered and denied Christ 
when Jesus was arrested? (And who is frequently depicted as balding 
with fringes and tufts of hair on his head). Or Peter as in `peter 
out', to diminish, run away into nothing?

Pettigrew: literally from the French `petit' (small) and `cru' 
(growth), or a play on words: `Pet-I-Grew', a reference to his 
ability to turn from rat to man?

Wormtail: an insinuator and a liar, and a feeder on corpses, or a 
weak person who might finally resist, as in `the worm will turn'?

Carolyn