DD and the rat: Conspiracy theories compared [LONG]

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 115804


--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "carolynwhite2" Carolyn wrote:

<snip because Carolyn's done a very good summary > *******
> FIVE QUESTIONS
> 
> 1.	Did Dumbledore know that James, Sirius and Peter were 
> animagi, and when did he know?
> 
> MD: Yes, emphatically. DD's comment `not least keeping it from me' 
> is regarded as simply untrue. 

Pretty much. But MD's feeling is that Dumbledore generally lies by 
telling the exact, but not the complete truth. James, Sirius and 
Peter did manage to keep their animagi status from Dumbledore for a 
time; it may have been 'blown' when Snape nearly got killed in the 
Shrieking Shack and Dumbledore worked out that the only way the 
three boys could have safely played with a werewolf was as animagi. 

It's even possible that Dumbledore never did 'find out'; he got 
told, by James the Order of the Phoenix member (for some Order 
related reason) after the three left Hogwarts. In which case they 
would have been some of the very few students to successfully keep a 
secret from Dumbledore until one *chose* to tell it - and 
Dumbledore's compliment is quite genuine. 

Dumbledore therefore knew about the animagi status of Peter and 
Sirius when Harry, Ron and Hermione went into the Shrieking Shack. 


He is not only an omniscient headmaster 
> who knows everything that is going on at the school, but also a 
> specialist in transfiguration. He also turns a blind eye to many 
> student activities. MD speculates that Dumbledore made the  
> connectionbetween animagus Pettigrew and Scabbers the rat at the 
> same time Sirius did – when he saw the picture of the Weasley's on 
> holiday in Egypt in the Daily Prophet. He only shared this 
> information with Snape, no one else.
> 

> 
> ********
> 
> 2.	Was Peter spying for Voldemort before GH? Why would Peter 
> betray his friends like this?
> 
> MD: Not definitive either way. Dumbledore accepts it could have 
> been Peter, but retains a suspicion it could be either Sirius or 
> Lupin instead. No insight into why Peter might have done it. 
> Another way of looking at it is that Dumbledore thought there were 
> several spies, knew Peter was one of them for definite, and on 
> this basis decided to pursue his bold plan in POA to return Peter 
> to Voldie full of misinformation and in Harry's debt. He would 
> then deal with the other possible spies in due course.

There's a real possibility that two of James's schoolfriends 
betrayed him; possibly each thinking they were the only one. What 
Dumbledore does know is that by getting Peter, Sirius and Lupin 
together at Hogwarts he's got the jackpot. One of them is the 
betrayer. 

<snip>> 3.	Why was the SK switch made? Who knew about the SK 
>switch? Why  did James & Lily agree to it?
> 
> MD: DD does not believe that Sirius is essentially evil, but he 
> does think he is weak. He gives evidence to the MoM that he knew 
> Black was SK, but MD asserts that he did not believe this 
> statement himself, although he did not know the truth at the time 
> of GH, only subsequently after getting information about the 
> mutterings at Azkaban. 
> 

Yup. Weak is the word - though 'coward' is the one that Snape uses 
in OOP. Given that Snape's assessment of James's character in PoA 
turned out to be brutally accurate, it's entirely possible that 
Sirius is someone who can cope with the thought of dying quickly, 
but can't cope with the idea of slow death by torture (in PoA Sirus 
is practically in a state of collapse when faced with the Dementor's 
kiss).  That would give Sirius motivation to swap with Peter. OK, 
not a nice motivation [grin], but still...

At the time of GH, Dumbledore had been told Black was SK. I think he 
thought that until Hagrid was released from Azkaban, at the end of 
CoS - and told Dumbledore what he'd heard some DE's saying.

<snip> 

> 
> MD: At the time, in the absence of other information, the 
> confrontation could have been a falling out between two traitors; 
> at best it was a stupid, rash thing for Sirius to have done. Snape 
> is certainly convinced that Black is a traitor – what knowledge 
> drives this? Peter is assumed to have no other place to go by POA.
> 

Note that in OOP Snape won't eat at Sirius's house. 

> Significance?
> All three main theories pay little attention to Peter as a person. 
> They take him at face value, as a weak person placed in a non-
> negotiable position. At the same time, they also postulate that he 
> may have had the intelligence to be either an effective spy for 
> Voldemort, and/or bright enough to have staged a credible 
> disappearance. There is something not right here, and it could be 
> evidence that Peter is playing a different role – although on his 
> own initiative or another's, it is impossible to tell.
> 
> ***********

Um. I think all the theories have to cope with the canon fact that 
Peter *did* betray the Potters (as SK, he was the only one who 
could). Unless we're going for a very dark Dumbledore indeed, that 
betrayal was probably his own idea - or the idea of the canonically 
evil Voldemort.

Non-negotiable is probably a good description of his situation - 
unless Peter was the one who heard half the First Prophecy, he did 
*not* know that Harry might be the one powerful enough to destroy 
Voldemort. Not knowing that, he'd be bright enough to figure out 
that, frankly, Voldie and the DE's were powerful enough that the 
Order were all going to die. The character flaw of weakness would 
mean that he'd be strongly tempted to find a way out of that.

> 
> 5.	Why did Dumbledore leave Sirius in Azkaban and why did 
> Dumbledore enable Sirius to be rescued in POA?
> 
> MD: DD did not know at the time whether Sirius was guilty or not 
> immediately after GH. After the events in POA, DD's thoughts are 
> summed up by Pip as `DD will try to make sure you're not wrongly 
> executed or re-imprisoned, but that's as far as it goes.' The last 
> thing DD wants is Harry put at risk by allowing him to live with 
> Sirius. He gets the idiot out of the country PDQ.
> 

And he later tries to keep Sirius safely out of sight at 12 
Grimmauld Place. Except when Sirius decides to accompany Harry to 
the Hogwarts Express. 

'Idiot' is the word. [grin]

In OOP we find (which I didn't know when I wrote Spying Game I and 
II) that Harry is magically protected at the Dursley's. So moving to 
live with Sirius would put Harry in quite considerable danger.

> WHAT'S IN A NAME?
<snip>
> 
> Peter: a reference to the top Apostle, whose belief was designated 
> the rock (Lat: petra) on which the Christian faith is built, and 
> holder of the keys to heaven – but who also wavered and denied 
> Christ when Jesus was arrested? (And who is frequently depicted as 
> balding with fringes and tufts of hair on his head). Or Peter as 
> in `peter out', to diminish, run away into nothing?

Peter is probably the most important part of Pettigrew's many names. 
I'd go for Peter the apostle, because it is connected with betrayal 
through weakness. Peter the rat knows what he *should* do - but 
doesn't.


Pip!Squeak