VW-I, A History

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 112438

While doing some research for this and that theory I ended up with a 
tentative timeline for VW-1. As you'll see there are lots of question 
marks in it, but here it is anyway. It is based on the HP Lexicon 
timeline in:
http://www.hp-lexicon.org/timelines/timeline_main2.html#1900-2000,
years 1970 – 1981, but I've added some deductions, conjectures and 
educated guesses. Frequently the exact dates are not known but the 
order of events can be deduced. Did I miss any detail that may help?

All dates follow the NHN deathday cake dating, according to which 
Harry was born in August 31, 1980. Numbers inside square brackets 
refer to canon sources listed in the end of the post.


****************************
1970:
The first Voldemort War begins [1]. 
I couldn't find even a single event of the war that is known (or even 
just suggested) to happen before 1978. The first 8 years of the war 
are thus completely shrouded in mystery. The only exception is the 
next item. However, Sirius [2] implies that LV didn't "show his true 
colors" until late in the war (see more about that below), so I 
assume these years included attacks only on muggles, muggle-borns and 
goblins, and perhaps a few "unexplained disappearances" of half-blood 
and pureblood wizards. In contrast, open attacks on respectable 
wizarding families probably took place only during the last 2 or 3 
years of the war, and that was when Crouch Sr. started to gain 
popularity with his harsh countermeasures. 
****************************
1970 or 1971:
Dumbledore is appointed headmaster of Hogwarts [3], which then 
becomes a stronghold in the war against LV [4]. While DD frequently 
seems to us as the unchallenged ruler of Hogwarts, it is worth 
remembering that during the Marauders' time at Hogwarts he was new to 
his job. Lucius Malfoy and the Lestranges (including Bella) actually 
spent several of their Hogwarts years under the previous headmaster, 
Armando Dippet. The close proximity between LV appearing on the stage 
and DD becoming the headmaster is also suspicious. 
****************************
June 1972:
Lucius Malfoy graduates from Hogwarts [5]. I couldn't find any clue 
when he became a DE, but it was likely soon after it, as he wouldn't 
want to miss any of the fun. His position as LV's second after 
Voldy's resurrection also supports the notion that he was a DE longer 
than most other DEs  
****************************
1973-1977:
Rudolphus Lestarnge, Bellatrix Black, Evan Rosier, Wilkes and 
probably Alice and Frank Longbottom graduate form Hogwarts [6]. The 
first four become DE while the last two start Auror training.
****************************
June 1978 (or 1977?): 
James Potter, Lily Evans, Sirius Black, Remus Lupin, Peter Pettigrew 
and Severus Snape graduate from Hogwarts. It appears that soon 
thereafter Lily and the "Marauders" join the Order, while Severus 
joins the DEs.

The Marauders graduation date is according to the HP Lexicon
http://www.hp-lexicon.org/timelines/timeline_main2.html#1900-2000,
see year 1978 in the timeline. Note that this year is NOT certain, as 
it follows from Snape's and the marauders' age, which is based on two 
slightly vogue points of canon (see the Lexicon's note in year 1960 
in the same web page). It is thus still possible they actually 
graduated the year before that, in June 1977.
****************************
Beginning of 1979 (?): 
The Order of the Phoenix has some kind of a meeting in an unknown 
location. It seems they were celebrating something, since in a 
photograph taken at that time many of them hold glasses [7]. Was it 
perhaps the day the Order was officially established? Could be, but 
it seems a bit late in the game for that. When had this meeting taken 
place? Lily and the Marauders appear in the photograph, so unless 
they joined the Order before graduating (not very likely) it was 
after June 1978. We can also deduce that it was no later than 1980. 
How? Because Moody's nose in the photograph is intact [8] and we know 
that Moody lost a chunk of his nose while killing Evan Rosier "the 
year before the fall of Voldemort" (see below). Besides, many Order 
members who appear in the photograph were killed later, and we have 
to allow enough time for that. It is therefore probable that the 
photograph was taken at the end of 1978 or the beginning of 1979. 
****************************
2 weeks after: 
Marlene McKinnon of the Order is killed together with "all her 
family" [8]. Travers was one of the DEs involved in killing them, as 
Karkaroff mentioned it in his pensive trial [9]. 
****************************
6 months after (probably mid 1979):
Caradoc Dearborn of the Order disappears [10]. His body was never 
found.
****************************
June 1979: 
Regulus Black graduates from Hogwarts and probably joins LV 
immediately thereafter. We know that Regulus was younger than Sirius, 
but we actually don't know that he was younger by just one year. 
However, more than one year will create a problem with the timeline, 
since he probably joined the DEs before LV "showed his true colors" 
[2]. Perhaps you think that killing a respectable wizarding family 
like the McKinnons would be considered "showing his true colors". In 
this case you have to postpone the Order's photograph to late 1979, 
after Regulus' graduation. Personally I tend to think that Regulus 
wasn't THAT squeamish, especially if the McKinnons were half-blood or 
branded as blood traitors and/or Voldy's responsibility for the 
killing was denied at first. I think, however, that killing also the 
Prewetts and especially the Bones would already be considered as "LV 
showing his true colors", which means it probably happened after 
Regulus joined. 
****************************
July 1979(?) - October 1981: 
Other Order members are killed:
Benjy Fenwick [10], Edgar Bones and "his family" [10](not including 
his sister Amelia Bones and Susan's parents), Gideon and Fabian 
Prewett [10], Dorcas Meadowes [11] (killed by LV personally). 

Since Moody doesn't mention when they were killed, I assume it was 
after Caradoc Dearborn's disappearance. Otherwise Moody would have 
probably added something like "about two months after this was taken".

It was probably following these killings that the purebloods finally 
realized "what LV was prepared to do to get power", and then Crouch 
Sr. became popular and gave a lot of authority to the Aurors. This 
fits well with the fact that all the known killing or capturing of 
DEs by the Ministry during the war happened in the last two years of 
the war (see below).  
****************************
June 1978 – beginning of 1980: 
Lily, James, Alice and Frank defy LV three times. This is assuming 
they started after graduation and finished before the prophecy was 
made (see next item). The prophecy's words are "born to those who 
have thrice defied him", which seem to imply that the defying had 
already taken place when these words were spoken. 
****************************
Fall(?) 1980: 
DD hears the prophecy from Trelawney in the Hog's Head. The exact 
date is not known but there is some indication that it was fall or 
winter of 1980 [12]. 
****************************
March 1, 1980:
Ron Weasley born.
****************************
July 30, 1980: 
Neville Longbottom born.

July 31, 1980: 
Harry Potter is born.
****************************
Sometime in 1980: 
Regulus Black is killed by DEs when panicked about what he was being 
asked to do and trying to back out [13].
****************************
Probably mid 1980:
Peter Pettigrew starts passing information to LV. This is based on 
Sirius' guess in the Shrieking Shack [14], which Peter doesn't deny. 
****************************
Sometime in 1980:
Karkaroff is captured by Moody after six months of tracking him [15]. 
In his trial Karkaroff knew Travers murdered the McKinnons [9] so 
Karkaroff's capture must have taken place after that event, but he 
didn't know Rosier is dead (see next item), and Crouch Sr. actually 
said that Rosier was killed after Karkaroff was captured [16]. 
****************************
"Shortly after" that:
Evan Rosier is killed [16] and Dolohov is captured [17] by a force of 
aurors that includes (actually is probably headed by) Mad-eye Moody. 
Rosier takes a bit out of Moody's nose before his death. This is 
sometime in 1980 because according to Sirius, Rosier and Wilkes were 
killed "the year before Voldemort fell" [18].
****************************
Sometime after that:
Travers and Mulciber are captured, apparently after Karkaroff since 
he doesn't know about it in his trial [9]. 
****************************
Oct 31, 1981:
Fall of Voldemort at Godric's Hollow. The war ends. The timeline 
immediately before and after that event was debated endlessly, so I 
won't get into that.
****************************




Canon sources
-------------

[1] SS/PS, Ch. 1: 
"You can't blame them," said Dumbledore gently. "We've had precious 
little to celebrate for eleven years."

It is October 1981 when DD says that, so it all started in 1970.

[2] OotP, Ch.6:
"Were — were your parents Death Eaters as well?"
"No, no, but believe me, they thought Voldemort had the right idea, 
they were all for the purification of the wizarding race, getting rid 
of Muggle-borns and having pure-bloods in charge. They weren't alone, 
either, there were quite a few people, before Voldemort showed his 
true colours, who thought he had the right idea about things . . . 
they got cold feet when they saw what he was prepared to do to get 
power, though. But I bet my parents thought Regulus was a right 
little hero for joining up at first."

[3] PoA, Ch. 18:
"It seemed impossible that I would be able to come to Hogwarts. Other 
parents weren't likely to want their children exposed to me. 
But then Dumbledore became Headmaster, and he was sympathetic. He 
said that as long as we took certain precautions, there was no reason 
I shouldn't come to school...."

It means DD became headmaster shortly before Lupin became a student.

[4] SS/PS, Ch. 4:
" 
 Terrible things happened. He was takin' over. 'Course, some stood 
up to him – an' he killed 'em. Horribly. One o' the only safe places 
left was Hogwarts. Reckon Dumbledore's the only one You-Know-Who was 
afraid of. Didn't dare try takin' the school, not jus' then, anyway."

[5] OotP, Ch. 15: "...said Mr Lucius Malfoy, 41, speaking from his 
Wiltshire mansion last night...". 

The year is 1995, so he was born in 1954 and graduated in 1972.

[6] These deductions are detailed in:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/105599
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/106729
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/106735
 
[7] OotP, Ch. 9:
"Harry took the photograph. A small crowd of people, some waving at 
him, others lifting their glasses, looked back up at him."

[8] OotP, Ch. 9: 
'There's me,' said Moody, unnecessarily pointing at himself. The 
Moody in the picture was unmistakeable, though his hair was slightly 
less grey and his nose was intact. 'And there's Dumbledore beside me, 
Dedalus Diggle on the other side . . . that's Marlene McKinnon, she 
was killed two weeks after this was taken, they got her whole family. 
That's Frank and Alice Longbottom — '

[9] GoF, Ch. 30:
"Yes!" said Karkaroff. "There was Travers - he helped murder the 
McKinnons! Mulciber - he specialized in the Imperius Curse, forced 
countless people to do horrific things! Rookwood, who was a spy, and 
passed He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named useful information from inside the 
Ministry itself!"
Harry could tell that, this time, Karkaroff had struck gold. The 
watching crowd was all murmuring together.
"Rookwood?" said Mr. Crouch, nodding to a witch sitting in front of 
him, who began scribbling upon her piece of parchment. "Augustus 
Rookwood of the Department of Mysteries?"
"The very same," said Karkaroff eagerly. "I believe he used a network 
of well-placed wizards, both inside the Ministry and out, to collect 
information -"
"But Travers and Mulciber we have," said Mr. Crouch.

[10] OotP, Ch. 9:
    ' — poor devils,' growled Moody. 'Better dead than what happened 
to them . . . and that's Emmeline Vance, you've met her, and that 
there's Lupin, obviously . . . Benjy Fenwick, he copped it too, we 
only ever found bits of him . . . shift aside there,' he added, 
poking the picture, and the little photographic people edged 
sideways, so that those who were partially obscured could move to the 
front.
'That's Edgar Bones . . . brother of Amelia Bones, they got him and 
his family, too, he was a great wizard . . . Sturgis Podmore, blimey, 
he looks young . . . Caradoc Dearborn, vanished six months after 
this, we never found his body . . . Hagrid, of course, looks exactly 
the same as ever . . . Elphias Doge, you've met him, I'd forgotten he 
used to wear that stupid hat . . . Gideon Prewett, it took five Death 
Eaters to kill him and his brother Fabian, they fought like 
heroes . . . budge along, budge along . . .'

[11] OotP, Ch. 9: 
"that's Dorcas Meadowes, Voldemort killed her personally"

[12] Some indications that it was fall or winter of 1980: According 
to DD in OotP (1996) it was "a cold wet night 16 years ago" (OotP, 
Ch. 37), and he went to "see an applicant for the post of Divination 
teacher", suggesting it was before or at the beginning of the school 
year. When Umbridge inspects Trelawney in the beginning of the school 
year of OotP, Trelawney says she held her job "nearly 16 years" 
(OotP, Ch. 15), suggesting she was hired a bit after the beginning of 
the school year of 1980.
   
[13] OotP, Ch.6:
"Sirius jabbed a finger at the very bottom of the tree, at the 
name 'Regulus Black'. A date of death (some fifteen years previously) 
followed the date of birth." 

[14] PoA, Ch. 19:
"DON'T LIE!" bellowed Black. "YOU'D BEEN PASSING INFORMATION TO HIM 
FOR A YEAR BEFORE LILY AND JAMES DIED! YOU WERE HIS SPY!"
"He — he was taking over everywhere!" gasped Pettigrew. "Wh-what was 
there to be gained by refusing him?"

This happens in August 1995, so 15 years ago is 1980.

[15] GoF, Ch. 30:
"Crouch is going to let him out," Moody breathed quietly to 
Dumbledore. "He's done a deal with him. Took me six months to track 
him down, and Crouch is going to let him go if he's got enough new 
names.

[16] GoF, Ch. 30:
"Any others?" said Crouch coldly.
"Why, yes
there was Rosier," said Karkaroff hurriedly. "Evan Rosier."
"Rosier is dead," said Crouch. "He was caught shortly after you were 
too. He preferred to fight rather than come quietly and was killed in 
the struggle."
"Took a bit of me with him, though," whispered Moody to Harry's 
right. Harry looked around at him once more, and saw him indicating 
the large chunk out of his nose to Dumbledore.

[17] GoF, Ch. 30:
"There was Antonin Dolohov," he said. "I - I saw him torture 
countless Muggles and - and non-supporters of the Dark Lord."
"And helped him do it," murmured Moody.
"We have already apprehended Dolohov," said Crouch. "He was caught 
shortly after yourself."

[18] GoF, Ch. 27:
"Snape knew more curses when he arrived at school than half the kids 
in seventh year, and he was part of a gang of Slytherins who nearly 
all turned out to be Death Eaters."
Sirius held up his fingers and began ticking off names.
"Rosier and Wilkes - they were both killed by Aurors the year before 
Voldemort fell. The Lestranges - they're a married couple - they're 
in Azkaban. Avery - from what I've heard he wormed his way out of 
trouble by saying he'd been acting under the Imperius Curse - he's 
still at large.


Neri