Sirius' Innocence

[KathyK]

No: HPFGUIDX 112831

DuffyPoo:

> "*You* are to alert Remus Lupin, Arabella FIgg, Mundungus 
Fletcher -- the old crowd.  Lie low at Lupin's for a while, I will 
contact you there." (GoF) Doesn't say anything about Lupin and 
Sirius getting in touch with the 'old crowd' together.  "I might add 
that werewolves are so mistrusted by most of our kind that his 
support will count for very little." (PoA)  Just because DD and 
Sirius trust Lupin doesn't mean all of the 'old crowd' did as 
well.<  

KathyK:

Dumbledore doesn't specifically state that Sirius must do this 
alerting on his own.  And I think it would abysmally stupid of 
Sirius to try and do it alone.  You're right that it would be nearly 
impossible to convince people he's not a murderer and traitor.  I 
have no doubt Lupin helped him out.  As far as the statements about 
the untrustworthiness of Werewolves go, most of the people in the 
old crowd would have known Lupin back then.  Even if they didn't 
particularly like werewolves (though I have seen no evidence that 
any of the Order holds something against him for his lycanthropy) 
they know Dumbledore trusted him.

On the subject of alerting the old crowd.  Do we think the first 
Order simply dissolved overnight when Voldemort disappeared?  Don't 
you think they would have entertained the possibility that he would 
be back?  That they might one day get news from Dumbledore they 
needed to reform?  Add this to the strange goings ons in the WW in 
Harry's fourth year-the Dark Mark at the QWC,  the disappearance of 
both Bertha Jorkins and Crouch Sr.-and I don't think they'd be so 
quick to dismiss Lupin's word (because he'd *have* to be the one 
doing the initial explaning, I think...unless Dumbledore has spent 
the time in GoF contacting his trusted friends and giving them the 
real scoop on Sirius Black and Peter Pettigrew). 

As far as convincing the newbies like Tonks and Kingsley, look at 
what Dumbledore says when he sends Bill to Arthur at the end of GoF:

"All those that we can persuade of the truth must be notified 
immediately, and he is well placed to contatct those at the Ministry 
who are not as shortsighted as Cornelius." (GoF Ch 36, US ed. pg 711)

So convincing them wasn't all up to a werewolf and a murderer.   And 
I agree with Susana:  Dumbledore's word counts for a lot.

DuffyPoo:

<snip, snip>
 
> I am quite sure there are more employees at the Ministry that 
believe Fudge than believe Dumbledore. Percy, Madam Edgecombe, 
Dolores Umbridge, Dawlish, Williamson, and those who went with 
Umbridge to give Hagrid his Order of Dismissal.  Dawlish was one but 
there were three others.<

KathyK:

Agreed.  But see the above quote from Goblet of Fire.  Not all 
Ministry officials blindly follow Fudge and Dumbledore seems to know 
Mr. Weasley will be able to convince a few.  If you even look at 
Harry's hearing before the Wizengamot you'll see that while there 
were quite a few witches and wizards who clearly didin't want 
Dumbledore meddling in the hearing (their expressions are described 
as 'annoyed') there are some in that body he was expelled from that 
still are friendly with him- "two elderly witches in the back row, 
however, raised their hands and waved in welcome." (OoP Ch 8, US ed. 
pg 139)  

I'm guessing but cannot say for certain that one of these witches 
was Griselda Marchbanks, as she said when she resigned from the 
Wizengamot over Umbridge's appointment to High Inquisitor, "This is 
a further disgusting attempt to discredit Albus Dumbledore." (OoP Ch 
15, US ed. pg 308) Clearly not everyone in the Ministry thinks and 
does what Cornelius Fudge wants them to.

Susana said:

>>Last but not least, Neville said (not an exact quote): "My 
grandmother said that if DD says his back, then his back."<<

DuffyPoo:

> You're fogetting the first half of that quote: "We believe Harry.  
My gran's always said You-Know-Who would come back one day."  Mrs. 
Longbottom would have believed it no matter who said it.  

KathyK:

And Neville's not the only one who said such things.  Ernie 
Macmillan:

"I want you to know, Potter," he said in a loud, carrying 
voice, "that it's not only weirdos who support you.  I personally 
believe you one hundred percent.  My family has always stood firm 
behind Dumbledore, and so do I." (OoP Ch 13, US ed. pg 262) 

I really don't think it's that unbelieveable that the Order would so 
quickly accept that Voldemort is back and that there are people in 
the Ministry who would take Dumbledore's or Harry's or Arthur's or 
Lupin's word for it.

KathyK