Who killed Dumbledore? WAS: Re: Karmic justice in Potterverse again.

[zgirnius]

No: HPFGUIDX 145046

"lupinlore" <rdoliver30 at y...> wrote:
> Actually, likelihood does figure strongly into standards of proof, 
> as likelihood is largely what standards of "reasonableness" are 
> based on.  If you see someone hit with an AK and die, what is the 
> reasonable explanation of his death?  The AK.  If you see someone 
> hit with an AK and die, and are then told that said person had 
> recently ingested a liquid of unknown composition with evident 
> deleterious effects of unknown severity and duration, what is the 
> reasonable explanation of his death?  The AK.  Theorizing that the 
> person may have been actually already dead from the potion, etc., 
is 
> imagining a scenario that is possible but highly unlikely and 
> therefore not a reasonable explanation (i.e. not enough to 
establish 
> a reasonable doubt as to the cause of death, given the evidence).

zgirnius:
IF we were discussing a real-life murder, I would agree that Snape 
should become the leading suspect based on the eye-witness testimony. 
Tracking him down, putting him in custody, and having some long 
conversations with him would be the first priority of the police.

However, the usual process we in real life expect is an actual 
investigation of all the circumstances surrounding a major crime like 
a murder. A thorough autopsy would also be done on the body. A reason 
for Dumbledore's weakened state would be sought. If it were found to 
be the result of a substance, lethal or otherwise, that Dumbledore 
had recently ingested, additional investigation would certainly be 
focused on how Dumbledore came to drink it. Lines of investigation 
that would need to be followed would include: 1) probable cause of 
death based on the examination of the body to eliminate the 
(laughably unlikely, in your view) possibility that the substance, 
not the curse, was the cause of death. This would be carried out by 
an experienced forensic pathologist with a lab full of fancy 
equipment, not an underaged teenager with no expertise on the front 
lawn.

And 2) investigating the possibility of a conspiracy. After all, WE 
know Harry is a fundamentally good person who loves and respects 
Dumbledore. But looking objectively at the facts, Harry disappeared 
with Dumbledore to an unknown location for an unknown purpose that 
very night, which he refuses to discuss with the authorities 
(Scrimgeour, to be precise). That day Dumbledore appeared in perfect 
health. But upon their return together (observed by a witness) 
Dumbledore appeared ill/weakened/poisoned. It is this circumstance 
that made the AK possible. There is a decent circumstantial case that 
Harry was an accomplice in the murder, which would only be 
strengthened if an examination of DD revealed he had ingested a 
dangerous substance that same evening.

All that has happened in the 'Dumbledore Murder Investigation' as far 
as we know is Step 1. Noone is interested in figuring out what was 
wrong with Dumbledore BEFORE the AK, and noone has checked his body 
carefully. Oh, and apparently the body may now have been cremated. 

I agree that Dumbledore expiring of the potion just after Snape 
enters the Tower is unlikely. Not in the sense that I think it is 
unlikely he was slowly dying of a poison, I think JKR left PLENTY of 
indications for that possibility. But in the sense that dying of a 
slow-acting poison at any single moment in time if of course not 
likely. 

However, the universe that she has created has magic which plays 
havoc with probabilities. (The Felix Felicis, introduced in this same 
book being a prime example.) I personally find it likely that the 
DADA curse is another such device. 

We have already seen this in PoA, which despite its highly contrived 
plot and timing is the most widely admired novel in the series. WHY, 
oh WHY, did all the fateful events in the Shack have to happen on the 
night of a full moon? I mean, there are 30 days in a lunar cycle. Is 
that LIKELY??! No, of course not (1 in 30 chance...), but it is 
certainly the timing which put Lupin, the then DADA instructor, in 
the worst imaginable position. The plot external explanation-it had 
to happen that way for the story to happen. The plot-internal 
explanation-it was the DADA curse, 'getting' Lupin.

Likewise: why did Draco succeed in his cabinet repairs THE VERY NIGHT 
Dumbledore decided to go on a Horcrux hunt? Is that LIKELY? No! If he 
had not, there would not be a story, at least not the rather dramatic 
one we have. But, story-internally, it was the DADA curse. I 
personally would have no problem with extending this to unfortunate 
timing of Dumbledore's death.


> lupinlore:
> Yes, I do have to admit that should most commonly discussed DDM!
> Snape scenarios come to pass I would probably expire of CRUPS 
> (Contrived, Ridiculous, Unbelievable Plot Syndrome).  The proximate 
> cause of death is asphyxiation due to uncontrollable derisive 
> laughter.  

zgirnius: 
Hopefully I am not contributing to such a sudden and painful death on 
your part...