Peter, Sirius, or Lupin: who was the spy again?

[KathyK]

No: HPFGUIDX 131795

Another Kathy joins in to create an attribution nightmare...
I'll add in my yahoo ID as well as my K to try and make this easier

The first Kathy wrote:

>>2.  Sirius was the one who grabbed Harry and choked him in the 
Shrieking Shack.<<

KathyK, zanelupin:

It may only be my copy of PoA, but I seem to recall Harry jumping on 
top of Sirius and Sirius grabbing his throat to fight him off.  Now, 
I will grant that we don't know he'd have stopped himself, so 
fixated he was at that point on killing Peter, but I would also ask 
that you grant we don't know he wouldn't have stopped. Hermione 
stepped in to resolve the issue.  I think he would have realized 
what he was doing.  Then again, I've apparently been turning into a 
Sirius Apologist in my lurking.  :-)

Kathy:

>>3.  Sirius was the one who attempted to manipulate Harry into 
doing something that for once he had the good sense to not want to 
do.  He used Harry's father as a pressure point.<<

KathyK, zanelupin:

Sirius tried to convince Harry it would be fine for him to visit 
Harry in Hogsmeade.  Harry, quite reasonably and with concern for 
his godfather's safety, argued against it.  Sirius came to the 
realization that Harry was not exactly like his father and handled 
it badly, throwing it in Harry's face.  When Harry tried to continue 
the conversation, Sirius cut him off and departed.  

Yes, he clearly sent the message he was disappointed and wanted 
Harry to feel badly for it.  But no, he did not try and manipulate 
Harry into going along with his idea using James.  Frankly, Sirius 
did not need Harry's consent or help in running off to Hogsmeade, 
even to meet Harry.  He could have just shown up for Harry's 
weekend.  I think that would have been worse than merely trying to 
convince Harry it could be done.  I know I'm not saying this right, 
but there is little coherence left in me at 5am.  

<snip 4. as it mentions that Snape character>

Kathy:

>>5.  The second prophecy said that the servant had been "chained" 
for twelve years.  To me this speaks more of Sirius than it does 
Peter. Peter was hiding, not incarcerated.<<

KathyK, zanelupin:

I fail to see the difference.  What kept Peter in hiding for all 
those years as a rat if not for fear of retalliation by Death Eaters 
or a lot of questions from the Ministry about his surviving the 
fearsome Sirius Black in the Alleyway?  Living as a rat for years 
comes pretty close to incarceration in my book.  But maybe Peter 
likes being a pet.  Why become one in the first, place, though?  
Perhaps he decided he had nothing else going for him so he may as 
well just become Scabbers. :-)

Trelawney's prophecy also says, "the servant will break free."  At 
this point Sirius has been free for months while Peter is still 
hiding out as a rat, now from the general WW and Sirius. 

Kathy:
 
>>6. Sirius speaks of conversations of Deatheaters in Azkaban
about what they wanted to do to Peter. When would he be in a position
to hear about it.<<

KathyK, zanelupin:

I can't help but be picky, I apologize.  What Sirius says is that he 
hears them *screaming* in their sleep.  Shouting and screaming are a 
bit easier to hear through walls, I believe.


Kathy:

8.  Sirius hosed Peter into making a "confession" which was very 
carefully written by JKR, in my opinion to be ambiguous.  Peter 
admitted to giving up the Potters' but Sirius was the one who set 
Peter up as the Secret Keeper on the basis that he would be less 
likely to be considered as such by Voldemort. Sirius wanted Peter 
dead so that these little confusions could never be straightened out.

KathyK, zanelupin:

So Peter and Sirius were in it together?  Or was Sirius even more 
quietly LV's spy, just biding his time to do something truly 
heinous?  He manipulated the entire situation so that no one would 
believe he'd been the one to betray the Potters and he'd continue to 
be free.  If this is the case, he made a very idiotic blunder in 
allowing Peter to get the better of him and then not even attempting 
to defend his innocence once captured.  He could have made a good 
case, I believe.  Then he wouldn't have had to sit in Azkaban for 
*twelve years* before escaping to hunt Peter down.

As far as the SK switch, based on what we know about the Fidelius 
Charm--and what I suspect, I agree it makes little sense for Sirius 
to suggest anyone else be Secret-Keeper.  As Phyllis said it so much 
better than I could back in December 2003, I will quote her here:

Phyllis From Message 87113:

"I think Sirius switched with Peter in the hopes that both he 
(Sirius)and the Potters would survive. Sirius didn't suspect that 
Peter was Voldemort's spy, and he believed Peter to be the last 
person Voldemort would identify as the Potters' secret-keeper. So by
switching to Peter, Sirius was trying to avoid being killed himself
while still protecting the secrecy of the Potters' whereabouts."

Back to KathyK, zanelupin:

Not only, IMO, would this switch, had Peter not been the traitor, 
have solved the issue of possibly saving both the Potters and 
Sirius, but there was also a good possibility Peter would survive 
this plan as well since I don't think, even if LV had gone after 
Sirius, Sirius would have given Peter up because that would have 
meant betraying James.  And even if Sirius did not escape LV in his 
pursuit of baby Harry, it still allows for the possibility that it 
could have been quite a while before their attention turned to Peter 
for information.  

Kathy:

10.  Bellatrix apparently hit Sirius with a stunning spell.  Sirius 
was a dangerous man, Bellatrix would surely have known that, and yet 
she fired a "red spell", which from other descriptions in the books, 
must have been to stun.  I think Sirius went through the Veil by 
accident, and her "scream of triumph" might well have been more of 
an "oops".

KathyK, zanelupin:

Unless it wasn't Bellatrix at all whose shot pushed Sirius through 
the archway.  <eg>  Sorry, can't help myself.

And what's wrong with a stunner hitting Sirius?  Maybe Bella wanted 
to bring back a trophy, but had to settle for his death instead.

<snip all discussion of love as I see Ginger has just posted on that>

Kathy:

I think that Lupin suspected him for a reason.  He may still 
suspect him, but as he has done all his life chooses the easy road 
and says nothing.  He does seem to be keeping an eye on him in OOTP.

KathyK, zanelupin:

I thought when Lupin asks Sirius to forgive him for thinking he was 
the spy it was because Lupin had thought for twelve years that 
Sirius was, in fact, the spy.  You know, after the Potters bought 
it.  However, there is lots of room for speculation about who 
suspected whom at that time.

Also, I think Lupin was keeping an eye on Sirius because Sirius was 
behaving a bit less calmly and rationally than Lupin would like his 
friend to be.  He was concerned, I believe, with what effects 
Sirius' behaviour could have on himself and on the Order, should 
Sirius lose complete control.  Oh, and he may have just been waiting 
and watching, orchestrating his friend's demise.  ;-)

KathyK