HBP: Why I am 98.6% certain that...

[Katie]

No: HPFGUIDX 134437

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Jim Ferer" <jferer at y...> wrote:

> 
> This and all the "Snape is actually good" theories depend on a great
> many things being predictable and known, actually far more than is
> credible. In order for this to have been a plan, then
> 
> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco had been taken into 
the
> Death Eaters and given the task of killing Dumbledore.
> ** Snape had to know that Narcissa would come see him and ask him to
> swear the Unbreakable Vow to help Draco kill Dumbledore.  He further
> had to know how that would fit into future events.
> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco wouldn't have the 
nerve
> to go through with it himself, that he wouldn't just bust a magical
> cap in Dumbledore the first time he had his back turned.

I agree with your point that Dumbledore and Snape would have 
basically have had to be fortunetellors or psychic to know that 
Narcissa would flee to Snape's house with Bella following her in the 
middle of the night, so concerned about Draco's task. It would also 
be basically impossible to for them to guess that Voldemort's plan 
was to use Draco as punishment for Lucius's shortcomings, and that 
Draco would have to kill Dumbledore. 

BUT, that doesnt mean that Dumbledore and Snape never had any 
agreements of this kind whatsoever. They are in a war. There are so 
many scenarios that could come up in a war and they had to be 
prepared. Dumbledore and Snape are both very logical people, and with 
Snape being a double-triple agent or whatever, they must have had 
many conversations regarding Snape's loyalty and whatnot. They must 
have had conversations regarding what Snape should do if his cover 
was ever about to be blown. I do not believe that Dumbledore would 
ever beg for his life like that. The two of them must have been ready 
for whatever situation arises in order for thier side to win the war. 
The whole Draco subplot was a "side-effcet" for lack of a better 
word, and the Unbreakable Vow just complicated things. I mean that, 
There are many scenarios that could have come up during the 
war....and just because this scenario with Draco came up...does not 
mean that Snape  was not loyal to Dumbledore...he had to keep his 
cover in front of Draco and the Other Death Eaters. Just because 
Dumbledore and Snape cannot know the specifics of the future doesnt 
mean that they could have never sat down and said....if, god forbid, 
that the time ever arises, I may need you to kill me Severus......and 
at this point they argue, argue, argue, argue some more, but Snape 
must know that Dumbledore would never ask this of him unless it was 
absolutely necessary.   

And not that Jim said this...but other people have been saying that 
one of Dumbledore's fatal flaws has been to trust just about everyone 
will turn over to the good side eventually....and that his trust is 
unwavering to a flaw. But that is not always true. The first pensieve 
scene where Harry sees Dumbledore meeting Tom Riddle as a child. 
Dumbledore did not put a blind trust in Voldemort at that time. He 
knew there was a thirst for power and recognition in Riddle at such a 
young age. Dumbledore always has a great sense of the good 
characteristics in people just as must as he can sense the bad 
characteristics in people. His trust does not always make him out to 
be a fool, he must have definitive proof to trust Severus 
Snape....even Dumbledore is not going to blindly trust a so-called 
former death eater, crawling over to the other side without some 
hard, solid truth. Yes, he's getting older in age...but Dumbledore is 
alot wiser and less niave than any of us I'm sure. And eveyone else 
has posted about Harry calling Snape a coward and Snape's reaction to 
it, so I wont say much more to prove that point except that I do not 
think Sanpe was being a coward. 




> ** Snape and Dumbledore should have figured out a way to keep Harry
> from killing Snape the first time he lays eyes on him after this 
plan
> worked out.
> 
> Harry will never believe anything about Snape again – Harry will try
> to kill Snape the first chance he gets. If Snape came to Harry and
> tried everything he could to persuade Harry, it would do no good.
> Snape couldn't convince any of the Order, either. It's hard to 
figure
> out how Snape can be any good to the Order or Harry after this.
> 

I agree with you on this one, but maybe Dumbledore's portrait will 
have some explaining to do to Harry. And I am sure there are probably 
many portraits of Dumbledore around wizarding Britain.....including 
chocolate frog cards!







> I believe Dumbledore did not seek death, but he didn't shy away from
> it, either.  He knew the torch was about to be passed from him to
> Harry, and was determined to ensure Harry survived.
> 
> No plan survives contact with the enemy. Dumbledore understood this,
> and I don't think he tried to play puppetmaster to this degree.  The
> puppets don't cooperate. He did prepare and ensured his ultimate
> weapon survived.
> 
> Jim Ferer

Beautifully put, but we must agree to disagree about the level that 
Dumbledore played puppetmaster. I think he palyed a bigger part in 
his own death than some people believe......but no one is 
infalliable, even if i would like to beleive DD is :)
Katie W.