HBP: Why I am 98.6% certain that...

[Christy]

No: HPFGUIDX 134467

A couple of thoughts to expound upon ideas...

>From Jim:
> This and all the "Snape is actually good" theories depend on a great
> many things being predictable and known, actually far more than is
> credible. In order for this to have been a plan, then
> 
> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco had been taken into the
> Death Eaters and given the task of killing Dumbledore.

My thoughts:
This is true, but not immediately true. DD may well have found out
afterwards from Snape. It's plausible they had a contigency plan, but
I'd also like to point out that most of the plans people have come up
with are really detailed. I would propose that DD and Snape discussed
a scenario along the lines of "if by chance you need to keep your
cover and it means my death you may do so, after this point in time."
I doubt that DD knew that Draco was a DE at first, but I'm sure he
found out quickly (either via Snape or some other person). 

Jim's next thought:
> ** Snape had to know that Narcissa would come see him and ask him to
> swear the Unbreakable Vow to help Draco kill Dumbledore.  He further
> had to know how that would fit into future events.

My next thought:
Again, only if you look at this plan as predetermined. I think Snape
had no clue about what Narcissa would do. I also am not convinced he
knew what he was agreeing to. He made that vow because he felt
cornered, I think. He hesitates, after all, before agreeing. You can
almost hear him saying to himself "Oh boy, I hope I know what I'm
doing here."

More fomr Jim:
> ** Snape and Dumbledore had to know that Draco wouldn't have the nerve
> to go through with it himself, that he wouldn't just bust a magical
> cap in Dumbledore the first time he had his back turned.

My next thought:
Well, frankly I don't think Voldemort thought Draco would go through
with it. I think it was a way for him to punish the Malfoys. A kind of
fix your father's mistake kind of initiation. I mean, Draco is after
all, still just a kid. And a scared one at that. It's easy to talk.
It's much harder to actually stand behind those words.

Jim's last note:
> ** Snape and Dumbledore should have figured out a way to keep Harry
> from killing Snape the first time he lays eyes on him after this plan
> worked out.

My ideas:
Not neccessarily. Harry's never liked Snape and DD knew that. I think
that DD realizes that nothing he says will convince Harry of any
loyalty Snape may or may not have. Snape would have to prove that
himself. I'm not convinced that there are many people who trust Snape
period. DD withheld a lot of information about Snape, and if we find
out more (and I hope we do) it should explain some things. But I think
that even DD realized there was nothing he would be able to do or say
or show to Harry (or anybody else really -- even Lupin says he took DD
at his word) that would convince him that Snape was helping the Order.
It all comes down to either you trust DD and what he knows (but may
not have shared) or you don't. The trust in Snape will come from that.

Personally, I think that Snape is being a true Slytherin. Is he evil?
I doubt it. DD said himself life is about choices. I see Snape's
choices as about saving his own hide and forget everybody else. But I
don't think he's evil.

~Christy