Lupin is Ever So Evil, Part One -- The Prank (LONG)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 130106


> Neri:
> 
> First, congratulations for finally coming with the full theory!

Pippin:
Thank you!

Neri: 
> Regarding the Prank part, I'm not sure what is the scenario that
you 
> are suggesting. I find it difficult to conceive even a single 
> reasonable scenario in which Remus but *not* Sirius is guilty of a 
> murder attempt.
> 
> First of all the "timing" issue. Madam Pomfrey would only lock
Remus 
> in the Shack immediately before the time due to the transformation 
> (no sense to lock the poor kid in there when he's not transformed). 
> So Severus sees Pomfrey taking Remus in and becomes curious, Sirius 
> tells him how to get in, Severus (assuming he has some brain left) 
> waits until Madam Pomfrey is out (and perhaps also until it's 
> completely dark, so no one will see him), and then he goes in and
of 
> course meets Remus already transformed. I don't see any issue that 
> needs to be explained with this timing.
> 
Pippin:
You're assuming it all happened on one night? I should have 
made clear that I see the events  happening over two moon 
cycles. Snape sees Lupin being led out to the willow, but
Sirius doesn't let Snape know how to get inside until a month
later, after they've had  four frustrating weeks of being deprived
of one of their hideouts, and the hideous realization that
with Snape watching the willow, there aren't going to be any
more werewolf outings.

Unless  Lupin can be in two places at once, he couldn't have 
consulted with the others or found out what Snape had 
seen until after he'd come out of the willow, and it would
have been absurd for Snape to suspect him.  

 Snape's suspicions, while often overblown, are never absurd. 

Harry *does* know something about the attack on Mrs. Norris,
he *does* know something about Sirius's escape, he *does*
want the dreams to continue, etc. Only Snape's suspicion that 
Harry deliberately made Neville look bad is completely off base,
and even that makes sense once you realize that Snape's
philosophy is  "Like father, like son."  It does sound like
something Pensieve!James might have done. 

Neri:
> Secondly, how could Remus make Severus go into the Willow? You 
> suggested potions that "bewitch the mind and ensnare the senses",
the 
> confundus charm or Imperius. Assuming 16 yrs old Remus knew how to 
> use any of these, and he wanted to get rid of the nosy Severus for 
> good, why not simply order him to step off the astronomy tower or 
> into the lake or something? Why did he have to involve both his 
> transformed self and the innocent Sirius at all? To quote 12 yrs
old 
> Ron, have you ever heard of a plan that is more likely to go wrong?

Pippin:
Of course it went wrong! James found out, for one thing. I'd really
like to know how that happened. Did Snape leave a note for Lily,
To Be Opened If Anything Happens to Me?

But we know from OOP that even someone under Imperius will
fight back if they're ordered to do something they know they 
can't do. If ordered to jump off the Astronomy Tower, Snape
would undoubtedly have resisted. But finding out what was
inside the willow was something Snape surely wanted to do, it's
just that it would have been a lot more sensible to wait.
 If he could wait for Pomfrey to come out, and wait till it got 
dark,  why not wait until Lupin had come out again?

As for why hide behind Sirius and his transformed self, Lupin
is a coward, by his own admission. He hides behind Neville
when he wants to embarrass Snape in PoA, and he hides 
behind Snape rather than admit his own culpability for
his resignation. He also hides behind Sirius, making up
a story that Sirius has learned dark arts from Voldemort,
rather than admitting that he led Sirius to become an
an animagus and that Sirius knows an unguarded 
entrance into the school.


Pippin