Lupin is Ever So Evil, Part One -- The Prank (LONG)

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 129922

Pippin wrote:
> I must beg the list's  indulgence for starting with 
> the prank. Putting Lupin's history in chronological 
> order makes it easier to understand, but it also 
> puts the most speculative  area of the theory 
> first. There is more than one clue to show that 
> Lupin could have been Voldemort's  spy and his 
> second-in-command, that he could have sent the 
> Lestranges to attack the Longbottoms,  aided 
> Quirrell and Lucius with their plotting, arranged 
> for Peter Pettigrew's escape, helped to murder 
> Cedric, and killed off Sirius Black. 
> 
> But for this bit, what I mostly have to go on is 
> Snape's claim that  Lupin was in on it (1) -- "it"  
> being the "highly amusing joke" that would have 
> resulted in Snape's death(2).  Since Snape doesn't 
> give any  evidence for his belief, it seems merely 
> another symptom of his irrational hate -- except 
> that if Lupin did indeed plot to kill him, Snape's 
> hatred isn't irrational at all! 
> 
<snip>
> The beginning and end of the story are maddeningly 
> incomplete. How did Sirius find out what Snape had 
> seen? How did James learn what Sirius did?  What 
> happened afterward? Was anyone punished? But the 
> biggest gap  comes right in the middle. As befits 
> the theme of Book Three, it has to do with 
> *timing*.  The joke will be pointless if Snape 
> enters the willow when Lupin is not there or finds 
> him before he transforms. 
> 
><snip>
> Canon places much stress on the ways in which one 
> wizard may induce another to take a rash or foolish 
> action:  potions that bewitch the mind and ensnare 
> the senses (8), the confundus charm (9),  the 
> dreaded Imperius curse (10). Sirius could have used 
> one of these to make sure that his "joke" was 
> effective, but it  seems most unlike Sirius to have 
> done so.   I can believe that Sirius would assault 
> Snape and try to murder him outright -- but I can't 
> see him setting a trap, not all on his own, anyway.  
> In all the time  Sirius was after Pettigrew, that 
> is one tactic he doesn't seem to have tried.
> 
> Could Snape have been bewitched by someone else? If 
> he suspected this, would he have overstated his 
> case as usual, shrilly accusing James and all his 
> friends of a deliberate plot against him?  
> 

Neri:

First, congratulations for finally coming with the full theory!

Regarding the Prank part, I'm not sure what is the scenario that you 
are suggesting. I find it difficult to conceive even a single 
reasonable scenario in which Remus but *not* Sirius is guilty of a 
murder attempt.

First of all the "timing" issue. Madam Pomfrey would only lock Remus 
in the Shack immediately before the time due to the transformation 
(no sense to lock the poor kid in there when he's not transformed). 
So Severus sees Pomfrey taking Remus in and becomes curious, Sirius 
tells him how to get in, Severus (assuming he has some brain left) 
waits until Madam Pomfrey is out (and perhaps also until it's 
completely dark, so no one will see him), and then he goes in and of 
course meets Remus already transformed. I don't see any issue that 
needs to be explained with this timing.

Secondly, how could Remus make Severus go into the Willow? You 
suggested potions that "bewitch the mind and ensnare the senses", the 
confundus charm or Imperius. Assuming 16 yrs old Remus knew how to 
use any of these, and he wanted to get rid of the nosy Severus for 
good, why not simply order him to step off the astronomy tower or 
into the lake or something? Why did he have to involve both his 
transformed self and the innocent Sirius at all? To quote 12 yrs old 
Ron, have you ever heard of a plan that is more likely to go wrong?

Neri