Lupin is Ever So Evil, Part Two--The Spy (LONG)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 130613

For Part One see Msg # 129902

With this part of the theory we move to firmer ground. 
Only Snape seems to think that Lupin could have been 
involved in the incident popularly known as The Prank.
But we have multiple grounds to think that Lupin might 
be involved with the Death Eaters: not only Snape, but 
also Sirius and even Hermione(!) have entertained the 
idea. None of the evidence is direct, but  once again, 
all JKR has to do is connect the dots.


But Peter was the secret-keeper and betrayed the secret, 
doesn't that make him the spy?  Well, no, it doesn't. 
The spy is linked to Voldemort's second in command, (1) 
and  JKR's website suggests that the second in command 
isn't Pettigrew. The Lestranges were 'sent' after the 
Longbottoms (2), and by that time they thought Pettigrew 
was dead. That was  a good thing for him, because 
according to Sirius, the DE's in Azkaban wanted a little 
chat with Peter about what had gone wrong at Godric's 
Hollow. From what Sirius says, (3) it's highly unlikely  
that the Lestranges would have let Peter Pettigrew send 
them anywhere, even if they had known he was alive.

The only evidence against Peter as the spy  is the 
confession that CAPSLOCK!Sirius bullied out of him...and 
we know that Peter is easily bullied. If it is credible 
that he was bullied into betraying his friends, it is 
credible that he was bullied into confessing falsely.

There are other reasons to doubt Peter's confession. 
Peter flinches at the  Dark Lord's name. (4) But 
Voldemort's closest confederates: Quirrell, (5) Lucius 
(6), Barty Crouch (7) and Bella (8), do not. They also 
profess  a sychophantic admiration for their Master, as 
Pettigrew never does. He gushes about his new hand, but 
even then he never fawns on Voldemort the way that he 
fawned on James.


The spy would have had to deceive Dumbledore for an 
entire year, and though no magic power is foolproof, 
Dumbledore can usually tell when someone is lying to 
him. (9) Peter shows no sign of skill at  occlumency -- 
Crookshanks was immediately suspicious of him (10) Peter 
certainly doesn't seem to have any control of his 
feelings; his nerve collapsed the moment he heard that 
Sirius was on the loose (11).  How could he possibly 
have served two masters for an entire year unsuspected?

Tom Riddle said he thought someone would realize Hagrid 
couldn't be  Slytherin's Heir. Should we not ask, how 
could anyone believe that Peter was the spy? His friends 
certainly never suspected him, or they would never have 
chosen him to be the secret-keeper.  Lupin, on the other 
hand, has a problem with the ministry,  is practiced at 
keeping secrets, and seems to be an occlumens. Even 
Sirius thought he had turned. He must have had a 
compelling reason, beyond knowing that he himself  was 
innocent. It is possible to come up with excuses for all 
of Lupin's behavior that we know about, after all, so 
why wouldn't Sirius have done so?

Why did he think Lupin had turned? We don't know. But 
one  thing we do know, and it is key:  Dumbledore feels 
that those who have been unjustly treated by the 
wizarding world will be tempted to join Voldemort(12)

Spies, both in literature and real life,  are often 
recruited from the ranks of those with dual loyalties.  
We can see in OOP that there was  tension between 
Hermione's goals and the Order's when it came to the 
freedom of House Elves. Hermione accepted that the 
Order's needs came first -- we don't see her trying to 
trick Kreacher into accepting freedom the way she tried 
to trick the Hogwarts Elves. But Hermione is only an 
underage witch, and one with a great respect for 
authority in general and Albus Dumbledore in particular. 
And her crusade for the House Elves is, after all, the 
sort of teenaged enthusiasm that waxes and wanes. 

But Lupin was a grown man,  an experienced subversive, a 
full member of the Order, and the cause of werewolves 
was obviously a matter of intense personal importance to 
him. Sirius implies that Lupin is very angry at Umbridge 
for the laws she's recently passed which make it even 
harder for werewolves to find work(13) -- but since 
Lupin was already jobless, his wrath must be on behalf 
of others. 

Lupin wears his poverty like a badge; his case is 
knotted together with string instead of
being repaired by magic, he wears his usual shabby robes 
even to the opening feast. Is he making a statement?

With the oppressive  Ministry regime working against 
Voldemort, tension between Lupin and the Order over how 
far to support it  would seem inevitable. Lupin says 
himself that if Voldemort offers the goblins  rights and 
freedoms they've been denied for centuries, they'll be 
tempted. (14) Why should werewolves be different? 


Dumbledore  has sent emissaries to the Giants (15) and 
the Goblins (16) to encourage them to resist Voldemort's 
effforts to recruit them.  We do not know directly that 
Voldemort was recruiting werewolves, but we know that 
even Dumbledore believes people will assume that a 
werewolf could only be on Voldemort's side. ( 17)Even 
Hermione cites Lupin's lycanthropy as a reason to 
believe he's helping Sirius, ie,  working for 
Voldemort.(18 )


Voldemort might  have been able to offer something more 
concrete than the promise of a world where werewolves 
will be treated decently. The wolfsbane potion is  a 
recent development. (19) Why recent? There have been 
werewolves for centuries. Little effort seems to have 
been spent on  managing the condition, which after all 
affects only an unhappy few. But Voldemort would 
certainly have a use for manageable werewolves and he 
had an expert potions maker at his disposal.  It sounds 
like the orphan drug issue, a problem JKR would be 
familiar with from her mother's  struggle with MS.

Lupin could never exercise his full talents in a world 
controlled by the ministry. But in the Death Eaters, he 
might command even purebloods like Malfoy and the 
Lestranges. It is worth noting that it is the faction 
who are *opposed* to Voldemort who fear and distrust 
werewolves: Mrs. Black, the Slytherin parents, even 
Molly.

At any rate, it looks like  something came between Lupin 
and his old friends. He is not sitting next to James or 
Sirius in Moody's photo (20), he is apparently not to be 
found in Harry's collection of photos of Lily and James 
(was he the photographer?) and he was not present at 
Harry's christening (21).  Fudge hints that school 
friends don't always remain close. (22)


Dumbledore himself offered to be the Potters' secret-
keeper, but James refused. He would trust only Sirius 
Black. Dumbledore remained worried.  (23) Secretly, 
however, James and Lily chose Peter Pettigrew to be 
their secret-keeper instead (24).  It is a puzzling 
matter. Why did the Potters refuse Dumbledore's offer? 
Would they have risked their own lives and the life of 
their son just to show confidence in Sirius?

 Surely the Potters didn't think that Dumbledore would 
betray them (he would have had lots of chances to do so 
already) and he was known to be the only one whom 
Voldemort feared. It seems more likely that they thought 
that someone Dumbledore trusted enough to transmit the 
secret  would deliver it to Voldemort instead. 

Now the switch makes sense.  Sirius would not have 
expected Voldemort to come after the secret personally. 
He would have expected the spy to do it -- and he 
thought that Lupin was the spy (25). James seems to have 
agreed, since he went along with the choice.   Perhaps 
something in the web of guilty secrets that bound them 
all together aroused their suspicions while making it 
impossible to tell Dumbledore why they had come to 
distrust their old friend. I have suggested the prank, 
but it might have been some incident that we don't know 
about yet. 


Sirius and James kept their suspicions secret from Lupin 
instead of confronting him, another indicator that they 
weren't as close as they used to be. They may  have been 
trying to set a trap. Sirius would pretend to reveal the 
secret to Lupin, Voldemort would attack the wrong house, 
and the spy would be exposed  without  any awkwardness  
about animagi, schoolboy confidences and raids on 
Hogsmeade. The last minute switch to Peter  ensured that 
Sirius couldn't be made to reveal the real secret even 
by trickery.  


But if Lupin was the spy who betrayed Pettigrew, how did 
he find out? There was one other person who knew about 
the Secret-Keeper switch. Did Lily tell Lupin, 
unwittingly betraying herself? As a Muggleborn she might 
have sympathized with Lupin much as Hermione does.

 *Someone* seems to have bargained with Voldemort for 
Lily's life -- perhaps Lupin thought that if he betrayed 
Peter, he could save her.


Next: Godric's Hollow and After

 Notes:
(All references US hardcovers. I am sorry I can't give pages for
GoF, I can only find my Raincoast edition at the moment)

(1) Links between the spy and the second in command
'Black was a big supporter of You-Know-Oo' PoA ch 3 p 
38, 'Very close to You Know 'Oo, they say,' PoA ch 3 p 
39 'I 'eard he thought 'e'd be second-in-command once 
You-Know-'Oo 'ad taken over.' PoA ch 3 p39 'his most 
devoted servant' (Fudge) PoA ch 10 p 209 'one of their 
best men' (Pettigrew) PoA ch 19 p369
(2) The Lestranges were 'sent' 
http://www.jkrowling.com/textonly/rumours_view.cfm?id=25
(3)Sirius re: the DE's attitude toward Peter PoA ch 19 
368
(4)Peter flinches PoA ch 19 p 368
(5)Quirrell says the name, SS ch 17 p 290, 291
(6) Lucius hears it, CoS ch 18 p 335
(7) Barty Crouch says it, GoF ch 35  , hears it GoF ch 
35
(8) Bella hears it, OOP ch 35, p 784
(9) Dumbledore can tell when someone is lying OOP ch 37 
p 832
(10) Crookshanks is suspicious PoA ch 4 p 59
(11) Peter's nerve collapses PoA ch 19 p 364
(12)"We wizards have mistreated and abused our fellows 
for too long, and we are now reaping our reward" 
(Dumbledore) OOP ch 37 p 834
(13) "You should hear Remus talk about [Umbridge]" 
(Sirius) OOP ch 14 p 302
(14 "they're going to be tempted" (Lupin) OOP ch 5 p 85
(15) GoF ch 36 p Also see OOP ch 5 p 85 
(16) OOP ch 5 p 85
(17) "werewolves are so distrusted by most of our kind 
that his support will count for very little"  
(Dumbledore) PoA ch 21 p392
(18) "He's been helping Black get into the castle, he 
wants you dead too -- he's a werewolf!" (Hermione) PoA 
ch 17 p 344
(19) wolfsbane potion is recent PoA  ch 18 p 352
(20) Moody's photo OOP ch 9 p 174
(21) Harry's christening 
http://www.jkrowling.com/textonly/news_view.cfm?id=80
(22) "Nothing changed when they left school" (Fudge) PoA 
ch 10 p 204
(23)Dumbledore was worried PoA ch 10 p 205
(24) Lily and James chose the secret-keeper PoA ch 19 p 
369
(25) Sirius thought Lupin was the spy PoA ch 19 p 373