Dumbledore vs Fudge Chp 27 in OotP (long) (was:Re: Dumbledore the Strategist...)

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 130764

>>Betsy Hp: 
>We *know* that Dumbledore is quick on his feet.  We saw that in 
chpt. 27 in OotP...< 
<snip>

>>Chris: 
>Do we really know he was caught by surprise? DD seems in full 
control from the moment Umbridge escorts Harry into his office.<

Betsy Hp:
Right.  Let's dissect that scene. *rubs hands together gleefully, 
because totally lives for this stuff* 
[All references from OotP scholastic hardback]

First thing we see is a crowded office with Dumbledore (looking 
serene), McGonagall, Fudge (looking especially pleased with 
himself), Percy, Kingsley, and Dawlish (redshirt Auror). [610]

So at first glance, yes I'll agree, Dumbledore seems in complete 
control.  The important word though is "seems".  It would never do 
for him to look worried or confused.  This is a poker game between 
Dumbledore and Fudge and appearances are *everything*.  In fact, by 
looking so smug and gloating with Umbridge over having caught Harry, 
Fudge has already given Dumbledore ground.  Fudge is letting the 
entire room know how important this find is, while Dumbledore has 
yet to give away anything. [610]

Moving along, Fudge and Umbridge do their little gloating and then 
Fudge asks Harry if he knows why he's there: classic interrogation 
technique.  Harry who's been all about the "never mind the 
maneuvers, just go straight at them" school of thought this year is 
about to blurt out everything.  Dumbledore, knowing what a huge 
mistake this would be (talk about showing your hand), prompts Harry 
to say no. [611] 

>>Chris:
>Remember, when Fudge asks Harry if he knew why he was there, Harry 
is about to defiantly scream "Yes!" but one look at DD convinces him 
not to. It's almost as if DD knows what is coming and is steering 
Harry through his answers.<

Betsy Hp:
Dumbledore steers Harry through *this* answer.  And it's a no-
brainer really.  Don't give your interrogator *anything*.  Make them 
work for every crumb.  The cleverness of this particular tactic is 
shown when Harry's answer of no completely throws Fudge off-stride.

Fudge quickly moves from pleased to incredulous to sarcastic to 
anger.  And Umbridge is forced to reveal their informant. [611]  If 
Harry had answered the question truthfully, he'd have informed on 
himself.  Dumbledore didn't need to know anything about what Fudge 
and Umbridge had on Harry to decide to take this route.  It's the 
obvious route to take.  There's no evidence Dumbledore knows exactly 
*what* Fudge and Umbridge have on Harry, but by keeping his cards 
close, Dumbledore forces Fudge and Umbridge to reveal theirs.

Enter Marietta Edgecombe.  At this point it's Hermione who comes to 
Harry's rescue.  By the content of her testimony to Umbridge it 
seems pretty clear that Marietta wasn't wanting to be too involved.  
She dropped a few hints and hoped that Umbridge would figure out the 
rest.  So I think the Sneak jinx hits her pretty hard.  She's 
totally involved now, and she's terrified and paralyzed by that 
involvement.  Dumbledore, at this point, has nothing to do with 
Marietta's reluctance to speak.  That's all on Hermione. [612-613]

>>Chris:
>Look at the situation with Marietta Edgecombe. Umbridge had 
notified Fudge after Edgecombe came to her after dinner that 
evening. However, Fudge had no idea who the witness was before she 
was introduced. But DD is reserved as hell when she is introduced, 
almost as if he knew this was coming.<

Betsy Hp:
The last thing Dumbledore should do at this point is panic or even 
react.  Any reaction on Dumbledore's part would give Fudge something 
to work with.  And frankly, the very fact that Fudge hasn't met with 
his informant prior to the meeting (which, as you point out Chris, 
is made obvious to everyone in the room) shows that Fudge really 
hasn't got a clue on how to run an interrogation.  Heck, *I* can 
tell he's messing up, and everything I know I learned from TV. (And, 
you know, family life <g>.)

Since Marietta refuses to talk Umbridge takes over and she brings up 
the Hogs Head meeting, a meeting that Dumbledore is already aware of 
thanks to Mundungnus [370].  I'm sure Dumbledore was expecting Fudge 
to bring that meeting up, and Dumbledore uses the law against him
[614].  (Actually, I imagine that Dumbledore had been prepared for 
the Hogs Head meeting to come up for a while now.  He had to have 
realized that the Ministry had its own informants, so I think he was 
fully alert to the fact that the meeting was not illegal.) 

Now things are back on the reluctant informant.  Can Marietta 
testify to six months worth of meetings?  Thanks to Kingsley, 
Marietta is made to lie [615].

>>Chris:
>He even gives Shacklebolt signals that cause Shacklebolt to modify 
Edgecombe's memory, already knowing that Marietta was about to spill 
the beans.<

Betsy Hp:
I'm not seeing any clear-cut signal from Dumbledore to Kingsley.  
Kingsley is a top-level Auror well used, I imagine, to thinking on 
his feet.  Dumbledore *does* make clear that evidence of continuing 
meetings would be a bad thing [615].  And he later praises Kingsley 
for thinking quickly.

"He was remarkably quick on the uptake, modifying Miss Edgecombe's 
memory like that while everyone was looking the other way -- thank 
him for me, won't you Minerva?" [621]

It seems to me that Kingsley acted on his own.  Just as I'm sure he 
maneuvered to be one of the Aurors accompanying Fudge to Hogwarts.  
It's no secret to the Order that part of their battle, at this 
point, is with the Ministry.

And then, in spite of all of Dumbledore's maneuverings, everything 
seems lost.  Pansy was quick enough to grap the list of DA member 
names that proves there was at least one illegal meeting taking 
place [617].  And one meeting is all they need to expel Harry 
Potter.  Something Dumbledore cannot allow to happen.

But then Fudge points out that the group have named themselves 
Dumbledore's Army.

"Dumbledore reached out and took the piece of parchment from Fudge.  
He gazed at the heading scribbled by Hermione months before and for 
a moment seemed unable to speak.  Then he looked up smiling." [618]

We see Dumbledore thinking here.  The DA used his name.  Fudge is 
desperate to get him.  Dumbledore can give Fudge a bigger fish and 
save Harry.  And that's exactly what he does.  He even goes so far 
as to say there was never a meeting that night so that no other 
student on the list can be expelled.  And Fudge, fool that he is, 
falls completely into Dumbledore's trap.  Because Fudge sees this 
all as a political game, and Dumbledore realizes that it's a war. So 
Dumbledore is willing to use force to keep himself out of Ministry 
hands.

"I have absolutely no intention of being sent to Azkaban.  I could 
break out, of course -- but what a waste of time, and frankly I can 
think of a whole host of things I would rather be doing." [620]

Hee!  Of course Dumbledore has to be rather forceful with McGonagall 
to make sure she didn't sacrifice herself as well [620].  But in the 
end, he gets away.  Is it a perfect ending?  Of course not.  It is 
much more convenient for Dumbledore to be at Hogwarts.  But it's 
better than Harry getting expelled and forced to go home to the 
Dursleys (if they'd even take him).

>>Chris:
>Was there ever really any tension present here?<

Betsy Hp:
Of course there was.  Dumbledore started out in the weak position of 
being the accused. (Or having Harry as the accused, which was even 
worse.)  Through clever use of interrogation tactics Dumbledore 
managed to put the pressure over on Fudge (helped, of course, by 
Fudge's general incompetence) only to have a Slytherin student make 
all of his maneuverings for naught.  At that point Dumbledore seized 
on the one way he had to turn the attention from Harry to himself 
and sacrificed himself so that Harry remained safe.

>>Chris:
>DD steers the entire conversation away from Harry, puts it on 
himself, and then stuns everybody in the room with no more trouble 
than popping a lemon drop into his mouth.<

Betsy Hp:
True, we never see him sweat.  But that's because Dumbledore is a 
bad-ass and Fudge is an incompetent.  No need for special powers for 
Dumbledore to prevail.  A cool head and some quick thinking was more 
than enough to rule the day.  (Though I would argue that things 
became a bit more complicated than eating candy in there.  
Dumbledore just knew enough to not allow his anxieties to show.)

>>Chris: 
>I understand that people like DD, and I am one of those people. BUt 
there are just too many circumstances where DD knows what is going 
on before everyone else does.<

Betsy Hp:
This was not one of those times.  Can you point out any others?  
Times when not even a keen sense of observation or a little skill 
with Legilimency would make a difference?

>>Chris:
<snip>
>LV knows all about the prophecy, which states that Harry is the 
only one that can kill him. Why then is DD the only one that LV 
fears? Because there's more to DD than meets the eye.<

Betsy Hp:
First, Voldemort doesn't know all about the prophecy.  He's only 
heard part of it and doesn't realize that *only* Harry can kill 
him.  So he fears Dumbledore because Dumbledore *is* a highly 
powerful wizard with a keen sense of observation and a fine 
strategic mind.  Dumbledore is who he's always been, IMO.  I will be 
surprised if there's any super huge power left to be revealed.  
Especially after JKR went through all this trouble to show 
Dumbledore as merely human.

Betsy Hp