Interpretation (was Re: Dumbledore's "“peaceful expression”?

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 141978

> Carol responds:
> As you may know if you've ever attempted to write fiction, it's very
> difficult to make the actions of two sets of characters match up
> within the same time frame. 

Neri:
Yep, much easier to match up the actions of two sets of the *same*
characters, before and after a time travel loop. Now *that* would be a
piece of cake <g>. Not to mention factoring in the separate actions of
Dumbledore, Hagrid, Ron, Sirius, Lupin, Snape, Wormtail, Crookshanks,
Fudge and the dementors, all matching perfectly from both ends of the
time loop. And interestingly the PoA climax takes place at the same
hours and in the same time of the year as the OotP climax. But maybe
JKR suffered an altheimer case in the three years between PoA and OotP. 
 
> Carol: 
> With regard to Snape, we have the word of two characters on opposite
> ends of the evil spectrum (Dumbledore and Bellatrix) that the Order
> arrived fairly soon after the DEs attacked Harry and his friends. (We
> can estimate the time frame of the battle sequence for ourselves at
> perhaps half an hour.) 

Neri:
Actually I pretty much agree with this estimation. The problem is that
it doesn't really matter for estimating the time of the Order's
arrival, it will just stretch the travel time from Scotland to London
(which is the single biggest unknown in the timeline) to compensate,
with the time of taking off from the forest canonically fixed at
sunset. What *does* matter is how much took the battle with the Order
and Dumbledore, even though this was *after* the Order arrived,
because when that is finished Harry is transported to Dumbledore's
office and sees the first light of dawn in the east, which is our next
canon time point. It should be about 2:00am (not using DST), so if you
estimate how much took the battle between the Order and the DEs plus
the battle between Dumbledore and Voldy, you can conclude when the
Order arrived. Regardless of estimations and JKR's math abilities, it
is almost impossible to imagine it happening before midnight.  

> Carol:
In any case, if DD believed that Snape had
> deliberately delayed or behaved inappropriately, he would not have the
> deep and often-stated trust in him that we see in HBP.
>

Neri:
HBP suggests a possibility that Dumbledore had somewhat of a blind
spot regarding Snape. And it doesn't look like Dumbledore had time to
chart the timeline before his talk with Harry in his office. He surely
never asks Harry to give his version of the events and their timing
(which frankly I, in Harry's place, would have found somewhat insulting).

> Carol: 
> Also, you can't count Harry breaking into Umbridge's office as part of
> the timeline. That occurs before he communicates to Snape what he
> thinks is happening. Snape leaves Umbridge's office and immediately
> contacts Sirius--which also constitutes contacting the Order since at
> least five other members are present at GP. He presumably tells them
> what has happened and establishes that Black is not in danger.
> 

Neri:
Canon only tells us that he found out Sirius is in 12GP. We don't know
how much he told them the first time around. Canon also tells us that
this happened during dinnertime at Hogwarts. The question is, can you
see Sirius knowing Umbridge holds Harry while he's under a mind
attack, and waiting quietly until midnight for further information
from Snape, of all people? Do you see the paranoid Moody hearing about
this and not checking on the guard in the Ministry, just to be on the
safe side? And did five Order members all forgot there are thestrals
in the forest, when Dumbledore sometimes uses them for transportation?
Or do they all just disregard the possibility that Harry would come
across somebody's broom, or reach Hogsmead and use someone's fireplace
to get to the DoM? After the attack on Arthur? After the attacks on
Podmor and Bode? When they already know Harry stopped getting
Occlumency lessons? When they know just the day before that Umbridge
used Minstry aurors to attack Hagrid and put McGonagall in St.
Mungo's? Credibility is stretched *very* thin here.  

> Carol:
> He can't go back to Harry with this information. He's been kicked out
> of her office. But somehow he finds out that Harry has gone to the
> Forbidden Forest (presumably he also knows about Hermione and
> Umbridge). His source of information can't be Neville and company, as
> they'd have mentioned this to Harry. I'm assuming that he set Filch to
> watch the doors to see if Harry and his friends ran out of them. 

Neri:
No need to get that complicated. Snape goes out of Umbridge's office
and sends a patronus to 12GP to inquire if Sirius is there. Since the
patronus probably doesn't return immediately, Snape doesn't know yet
if this is a true situation or a false alarm. At this point his
obvious first priority is to keep an eye on Harry – there isn't much
else that he can or needs to do. He could simply wait around the
corner to see what Umbridge will do. He could see her taking Harry and
Hermione, follow them from a safe distance to see that they go to the
Forest. At that point he'd know he is the highest authority left in
the castle and Umbridge's office is wide open. Once he ferries the
Slyths outside (no need to investigate them) he has immediate
communication with 12GP and probably can even summon immediate
enforcements, the way McGonagall's fire in HBP was set to bring back
Harry, Ron and Ginny after Christmas (if this isn't possible the
enforcement can still apparate just outside the gates. Might actually
be faster to reach the forest from there). Sirius would be an ideal
candidate: knows the Forbidden Forest very well, can run very fast as
a dog while sniffing Harry's tracks, and Umbridge doesn't know about
his disguise. Tonks and Lupin would be good choices too, as their
service at Hogwarts during HBP demonstrates. But obviously this didn't
happen. The question is, where and who was the weak link?   

> Carol:
Filch
> reporting that Umbridge was out of the building would leave Snape free
> to return to Umbridge's office, sort out the various hexes placed on
> the Slytherins, and get the story of what had happened. At this point
> he apparently reports to Dumbledore, who knows that Snape intended to
> go into the forest to search for them. 

Neri:
At no point at that night Snape contacted Dumbledore. Dumbledore was
not available, and Snape's second call was again to GP12. And if they
went "at once" to the DoM as Dumbledore says they did, it means he
contacted them very late, most probably around midnight.

> Carol:
Then, we must assume, he goes
> into the forest and does not find them. He knows that Harry can't
> apparate and that he was not carrying a broom when he ran out with
> Umbridge. Nevertheless, he somehow puts two and two together as only
> snape can and determines that Harry and friends have actually gone to
> the MoM. He doesn't know they've done so or how long it will take to
> get there. He then returns to his office (or Umbridge's to use the
> fireplace so he can talk with them directly). He tells them what he
> knows or has deduced and tells Black to remain behind because
> Dumbledore is coming--which means that he has also contacted
> Dumbledore before contacting the Order.
>

Neri:
I think you got the order of events wrong. Dumbledore indeed says that
"it was he [Snape] who deduced where you had gone when you did not
return from the forest". But three pages before that he also says that
"when, however, you did not return from your trip into the forest with
Dolores Umbridge, Professor Snape grew worried that you still believed
Sirius to be a captive of Lord Voldemort's. He altered certain Order
members at once." Then Dumbledore describes the Order members deciding
to go "at once" to the DoM and Snape requesting Sirius would stay
behind. Then Dumbledore adds: "in the meantime he, Professor Snape,
intended to search the forest for you". 

My interpretation of this is that Snape intended to search the forest
*after* he contacted the Order the second time and told them he thinks
Harry went to the DoM. If he indeed searched the forest at all it must
have been after he himself deduced that Harry was no longer there. And
all this must have happened around midnight.   

> Carol: 
> Unless you can explain to me how Snape knew that Harry had gone into
> the forest without having someone report the information to him (and
> obtaining more details from his own students, whom he was bound by his
> duty as a teacher and their HoH to unhex) and how DD could know to go
> to the Order without Snape's having contacted him (probably twice), I
> see no other explanation for Snape's side of the action. 

Neri:
Dumbledore was "due to headquarters at any minute" which is why Snape
requested Sirius to wait there for him. If Snape contacted Dumbledore
before, why didn't Dumbledore aparate to the DoM straight away and
arrived there before the Order members, instead of going first to 12GP
and examining Kreacher while the Order members get butchered in the
DoM? And Madam Pomfrey could unhex the Slyths. Snape had more
important things to do that night. Regarding how Snape knew Harry went
to the forest – see my previous answers.

> 
> Carol, who will regard the "missing five hours" as canonical only when
> JKR herself acknowledges its existence
>

Neri:
As I wrote before, it is canon that several hours passed from
dinnertime, when Harry first gives his message to Snape, until the
Order members arrive at the DoM, most probably after midnight. What
Snape and the rest of the Order members did during that time is indeed
left very vague. I'd say much *too* vague.

Neri