Interpretation (was Re: Dumbledore's "“peaceful expression�?

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 142003

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "nkafkafi" <nkafkafi at y...> wrote:

> Neri:
> Actually I pretty much agree with this estimation. The problem is that
> it doesn't really matter for estimating the time of the Order's
> arrival, it will just stretch the travel time from Scotland to London
> (which is the single biggest unknown in the timeline) to compensate,
> with the time of taking off from the forest canonically fixed at
> sunset. What *does* matter is how much took the battle with the Order
> and Dumbledore, even though this was *after* the Order arrived,
> because when that is finished Harry is transported to Dumbledore's
> office and sees the first light of dawn in the east, which is our next
> canon time point. It should be about 2:00am (not using DST), so if you
> estimate how much took the battle between the Order and the DEs plus
> the battle between Dumbledore and Voldy, you can conclude when the
> Order arrived. Regardless of estimations and JKR's math abilities, it
> is almost impossible to imagine it happening before midnight.  

Pippin:
You determined these endpoints by consulting an almanac or something 
similar, but would JKR bother to do that? Nowhere else in canon does she 
approach times or dates with that kind of versimilitude. I guess she would 
simply rely on her subjective opinion that summer nights in northern Scotland 
are relatively short. 

She does make it noticeable that Snape does not immediately become 
concerned about Harry, however. But should he have? You have stated 
elsewhere that despite the mountains of reader conjecture, we (and Harry) 
actually know very little about Snape. But it works both ways. Snape actually 
does not know all that much about Harry. 

There is no canon that Snape perceives Harry as someone who gets in 
trouble because he is too brave and noble for his own good. There is ample 
canon to show that Snape sees Harry as someone who gets in trouble 
because he ignores the rules. But the corollary is that as long as Harry is 
obeying rules, he is not in trouble, and Harry was not breaking any rules by 
going into the forest with Umbridge. 

Harry has been eavesdropping on Voldemort's daydreams about the 
department of mysteries all year. That apparently Voldemort is now 
entertaining himself by embellishing the daydream with the capture of Sirius 
(something Snape would all too certainly see as entertaining himself)  would 
not necessarily set off any alarm bells with Snape. 

I haven't got my canon with me, but I don't believe Harry tried to convey 
anything about Voldemort trying to get Sirius to obtain a prophecy for him, so 
Snape doesn't know about that part of it. There is no canon that Snape 
understands the depth of feeling Harry has for Sirius. He has seen them 
together only three times.  The occlumency lessons dwelt on the fears in 
Harry's past, not his loves or his fears about the future.

And of course, the more we imagine that Snape could have grasped in 
Harry's brief attempt to communicate by legilimency, the more problematic the 
contention becomes that Snape and Dumbledore couldn't have 
communicated on the tower. But I digress.


> Neri:
. Once he ferries theSlyths outside (no need to investigate them) he has 
immediate communication with 12GP and probably can even summon 
immediate enforcements, the way McGonagall's fire in HBP was set to bring 
back Harry, Ron and Ginny after Christmas (if this isn't possible the
 enforcement can still apparate just outside the gates. 

Pippin:
If Umbridge can arrange to have the fires at Hogwarts monitored then so can 
the DE's. They're not safe, certainly not for a message which Snape would 
find very difficult to explain to Voldemort. If he's told Voldemort that there are 
no Order members at Hogwarts besides him and McGonagall, then Snape is 
going to have a hard time accounting for the sudden appearance of the Order 
at Hogwarts, even if he can conceal that he summoned them.

We also know that the Ministry monitors apparation. The weak links are as 
they  have been all along, that Snape and Harry don't understand each other, 
and that JKR's estimates of time are often inaccurate.

Pippin