Interpretation (was Re: Dumbledore's "“peaceful expression�?

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 142014

> Pippin:
> You determined these endpoints by consulting an almanac or something 
> similar, but would JKR bother to do that? Nowhere else in canon does
she 
> approach times or dates with that kind of versimilitude. I guess she
would 
> simply rely on her subjective opinion that summer nights in northern
Scotland 
> are relatively short. 
> 

Neri:
JKR has lived several years in Scotland and she knows that sunset in
the summer there is around 10pm (using DST now). This is obvious from
the PoA climax, which canonically takes place from 9:00pm to midnight.
Buckbeak's execution was scheduled to sunset (Ch. 16, both in Hagrid's
note and in Ron's words). The trio wait until dinner is absolutely
over and all students had left the great hall (canon). They go out of
the castle exactly at 9:00pm (canon) and then we get an interesting
sentence: "The sun was already sinking behind the Forbidden Forest,
gilding the top branches of the trees." Compare this to the sentence
in OotP, beginning of Ch. 33: "The sun was falling towards the top of
the trees in the Forbidden Forest", *and* Harry still hearing the
students eating dinner in the great hall. This establishes that in
JKR's privet clock Umbridge takes Harry to the forest before 9:00.
Back to PoA: Immediately after Buckbeak's supposed execution we are
indeed told "The very last rays of the setting sun were casting a
bloody light over the long-shadowed grounds." (PoA, beginning of Ch.
17). Also during the second turn around the time travel loop,
immediately after TT!Harry and TT!Hermione steal Buckbeak we are told
"The sun was setting now" (Ch. 21). Conclusion: when it's important to
the plot JKR is consistent and exact about the timing. The relation
between dinnertime, the sun's position and the time of sunset is
consistent over both PoA and OotP.

What we indeed don't know from canon is when JKR thinks is the first
light of dawn. However, I simply can't believe she's so ignorant and
math-challenged to think it's as early as 1:00am (in realty it's
around 3:00am using DST). So even in JKR's privet clock it should be
*at least* 4 hours, probably more than that.

> Pippin:
> She does make it noticeable that Snape does not immediately become 
> concerned about Harry, however. But should he have? You have stated 
> elsewhere that despite the mountains of reader conjecture, we (and
Harry) 
> actually know very little about Snape. But it works both ways. Snape
actually 
> does not know all that much about Harry. 
> 
> There is no canon that Snape perceives Harry as someone who gets in 
> trouble because he is too brave and noble for his own good. There is
ample 
> canon to show that Snape sees Harry as someone who gets in trouble 
> because he ignores the rules. But the corollary is that as long as
Harry is 
> obeying rules, he is not in trouble, and Harry was not breaking any
rules by 
> going into the forest with Umbridge. 
> 

Neri:
I don't see why is it relevant how Snape sees Harry. The Order's top
missions in OotP are to guard Harry and to guard the prophecy. This is
made clear from the very beginning, when Harry is nearly assassinated
because the Order's guard had left his watch, and repeated many times
throughout the book. Snape was the last Order member left at Hogwarts.
His obvious duty was to keep an eye on Harry. Certainly when Harry has
a public collapse, reports messages from Voldemort in the middle of
the day, and is held by the witch who had attacked Hagrid and
McGonagall just the day before that. 

> Pippin:
> Harry has been eavesdropping on Voldemort's daydreams about the 
> department of mysteries all year. That apparently Voldemort is now 
> entertaining himself by embellishing the daydream with the capture
of Sirius 
> (something Snape would all too certainly see as entertaining
himself)  would 
> not necessarily set off any alarm bells with Snape. 
> 

Neri:
In the final talk Dumbledore said: 

"And then you saw Rookwood, who worked in the Department of Mysteries
before his arrest, telling Voldemort what we had known all along —
that the prophecies held in the Ministry of Magic are heavily
protected. Only the people to whom they refer can lift them from the
shelves without suffering madness: in this case, either Voldemort
himself would have to enter the Ministry of Magic, and risk revealing
himself at last — or else you would have to take it for him. It became
a matter of even greater urgency that you should master Occlumency."

Dumbledore couldn't know that Harry had seen this in Voldy's mind
unless Snape had told him. Ergo, Snape knew that after the DEs escape
from Azkaban the risk of Voldy using Harry to retrieve the prophecy is
much greater. And we haven't even started to consider what Snape knew
because he was an agent in the DEs camp. Even if Snape thought Harry
doesn't want or can't go to the DoM by himself, surely he should
realize that Harry alone with Umbridge away from the castle is not a
good thing? I can imagine a lot about Snape, but not that he's stupid
or naïve.

> Pippin:
> If Umbridge can arrange to have the fires at Hogwarts monitored then
so can 
> the DE's. They're not safe, certainly not for a message which Snape
would 
> find very difficult to explain to Voldemort. If he's told Voldemort
that there are 
> no Order members at Hogwarts besides him and McGonagall, then Snape is 
> going to have a hard time accounting for the sudden appearance of
the Order 
> at Hogwarts, even if he can conceal that he summoned them.
> 

Neri:
Tonks can be easily disguised. So was Sirius. Nobody had to know that
there are Order members at Hogwarts. Not that Voldy should be
surprised that there are. A new enforcement to replace Hagrid and
McGonagall would be expected, and no DE would expect Snape to prevent it.

It is pretty much established that Umbridge's fire was not monitored.
If it was, Umbridge would have known what Harry told Sirius and Lupin
after the first time he used it, and when capturing Harry she would
have first listened to the "recording" of what he said before
questioning him.

Are you saying the Order left Snape as their only man at Hogwarts with
his only safe mean of communication a slow patronus, when all signs
pointing that Voldemort's attack is imminent?  Again credibility is
stretched very thin.  There must have been a weak link, and the
relationships between Harry and Snape weren't (or at least shouldn't
have been) relevant from Snape's PoV.

> Pippin:
> We also know that the Ministry monitors apparation. 

Neri:
We do? Then I must have missed it. Can you supply the canon? 


Neri