[HPforGrownups] STWNSHH (was Size)

[manawydan]

No: HPFGUIDX 139877

Matt wrote:--- 
>If we *are* going to critique (or extrapolate from) her numbers, we
>should at least make sure that we use the numbers she actually gave.
>Ffred's analysis assumes a total British wizarding population of
>3,000.  JKR's interview postulated that the total number of
>*school-age* British wizards was around 3,000.

That's not my reading of what she said. Here it is, pasted

"...I never consciously thought, "That's it, that' s all the people in his
year," but that's kind of how it's worked out. Then I've been asked a few
times how many people and because numbers are not my strong point, one part
of my brain knew 40, and another part of my brain said, "Oh, about 600
sounds right." Then people started working it out and saying, "Where are the
other kids sleeping?" [Laughter.]  We have a little bit of a dilemma there.
I mean, obviously magic is very rare. I wouldn't want to say a precise
ratio. But if you assume that all of the wizarding children are being sent
to Hogwarts, then that's very few wizard-to-Muggle population, isn't it?
There will be the odd kid whose parents don't want them to go to Hogwarts,
but 600 out of the whole of Britain is tiny.

Let's say three thousand [in Britain], actually, thinking about it..."

I read that as saying that there are 600 wizarding children but 3000
wizarding folk in total.

But I do agree that the number of Hogwarts-age children would be around 5%
(might be even smaller, it depends on whether you assume that the average
age at death for wizards is 2x or 3x that of a muggle).

>Ffred's analysis is also flawed in assuming that the British teams are
>supported exclusively by British witches and wizards, something that
>may well be untrue.  Although we know that the World Cup teams
>inspired national loyalties, it appears from the few student
>discussions we've seen around Quidditch (Ron, Cho, etc.) that their
>support is less tied to regional loyalty.  Because distance presents

I'm not sure what canon there is to suggest that people support "foreign"
sides, though I agree that loyalty within the books doesn't seem to be
geographical. Otherwise you'd have to take into account whatever estimates
you want to make of where wizarding folk live (are they concentrated outside
the cities, because it's easier to hide from the muggles, or do the
distributions match?)

Also, of course, if there's a significant number, say, of Flemish wizards
popping over to support English sides, there's just as much likelihood of an
equal number of English wizards going in the opposite direction.

I do make other (unmentioned) assumptions, of course. One of them is that
fans support their side through thick and thin, rather than there being some
who fall by the wayside if the team are going through a rough patch, the
other (perhaps more likely given what you rightly say about greater ease of
travel), is that all the fans go to both home and away matches.

>So, while JKR's numbers do have some genuine internal inconsistencies,
>I'm not sure that the "Quidditch analysis" takes us much further down
>the road of exploring them.

No. And as I've said, all I was trying to do was to agree with JKR that her
figures weren't reliable!

hwyl

Ffred

O Benryn wleth hyd Luch Reon
Cymru yn unfryd gerhyd Wrion
Gwret dy Cymry yghymeiri