STWNSHH (was Size)

[Matt]

No: HPFGUIDX 139810

--- My summary of JKR's interview responses concerning the size of the
British wizarding population:

>> As I read it, [JKR] is confirming that she envisioned 
>> exactly 40 students in Harry's year, although she concedes 
>> that this does not really square with her idea about the
>> total number of students at Hogwarts (larger, aroung 600) 
>> or about the size of the total British wizarding population 
>> (which she apparently is estimating as approximately 3,000 
>> school-age children, but as she says "don't hold me to these 
>> figures, because that's not how I think").

--- Ffred critiqued the British wizarding population estimate on the
ground that a total British wizarding population of 3,000 would allow
only 123 fans for each of the 13 professional Quidditch clubs.

I think Rowling's point in the interview is that it is hopeless to try
to find consistency among the population estimates that she has made
(even, as she points out, within the Hogwarts population itself),
because she simply did not try to make all of those numbers square
when she was imagining what the WW looked like.  I don't really mean
to venture down that road, but....

If we *are* going to critique (or extrapolate from) her numbers, we
should at least make sure that we use the numbers she actually gave. 
Ffred's analysis assumes a total British wizarding population of
3,000.  JKR's interview postulated that the total number of
*school-age* British wizards was around 3,000.  Of course the number
of adults would be larger -- I think that secondary-school-age kids
make up about 10% of the population in the muggle developed world, but
since wizards have a much longer life expectancy, the WW ratio would
need to be smaller, say 5%.  So a school-age population of 3,000 might
imply a total population of around 60,000.  

Ffred's analysis is also flawed in assuming that the British teams are
supported exclusively by British witches and wizards, something that
may well be untrue.  Although we know that the World Cup teams
inspired national loyalties, it appears from the few student
discussions we've seen around Quidditch (Ron, Cho, etc.) that their
support is less tied to regional loyalty.  Because distance presents
much less of a barrier to travel in the WW than in the muggle world
(owing to apparition, floo powder, portkeys, and possibly other
magical travel methods we don't know about), it does not seem
difficult to imagine that fans outside Britain might support one or
more British Quidditch sides, particularly if Britain has a
concentration of talented squads.  

So, while JKR's numbers do have some genuine internal inconsistencies,
I'm not sure that the "Quidditch analysis" takes us much further down
the road of exploring them.

-- Matt