Random Thoughts about the Wizarding World

[amiabledorsai]

No: HPFGUIDX 139932

Given that JKR doesn't really think in terms of numbers, trying to
work out the size of the Wizarding community of Britain probably will
never be very fruitful, but... what the heck.

I'm hardly original in making this calculation, but I'll throw it out
again.  Given 300 students at Hogwarts, and an average life expectancy
among wizards about twice that of Muggles, you get a wizarding
population in the neighborhood of 6-7000--assuming there hasn't been
any great disruption of the demographics.

That seems small.  Further, JKR has said that the population of
Hogwarts is 1000 (Yeah, I know she's revised it downwards, but work
with me, I'm going somewhere.) 

We can, sort of reconcile this if we assume that Harry's parents'
generation took a really big hit during the first Voldemort War.

Suppose that about 2/3 to 3/4 of the witches and wizards of that age
cohort were killed, Longbottomed, sent to Azkaban, or otherwise
rendered unable to reproduce.  Harry's generation--the kids several
years older and younger than Harry--would therefore be unusually small.

Hogwarts then, would be serving an enrollment much smaller than it's
"normal" 1000 students.  There would be a population of much older
Magicals rather larger--12,000 to 18,000 perhaps--than the simple
multiplication of Hogwarts' current enrollment would indicate.  Enough
to support 13 Quidditch teams on a semi-pro basis, enough to generate
the commerce necessary to support the shops in Diagon Alley and
Hogsmeade, enough so that the Ministry of Magic doesn't look quite so
bloated....

2/3 to 3/4 of a given generation seems like a lot, but  Harry's folks
would have been in the age group that does most of the actual fighting
and dying in Muggle wars, and civil wars are often the most bloody.

A body count that high would go a long way toward explainng the
pants-filling dread that most of the people we meet have for
Voldemort, as well.

It also would serve to explain the oddly high proportion of
half-bloods and Muggleborns in Harry's year.  In Gryffindor alone,
only Neville and Ron are certainly pure blood.  Lavender and Parvati
may be, but, in POA, Lavender didn't know what a Grim was, so I'm
guessing she's Muggle born.

What do you all think?

Amiable Dorsai